Here are some LoL (League of Legends) elements that are relevant for us moving forward.
-There are six positions you’ll have to fill in your LoL lineups. Top, Jungle (JNG), Middle (MID), Attack Damage Carry (ADC), Support (SUP) and Team. The former five are actual positions that players take in the map, while Team is just an additional one that DraftKings added and will accrue less scoring. In other words, Team is the least important position when it comes to roster construction.
-LoL is a lot like baseball stacking wise. However, you want to stack players from a single team, not games. Stacking is pivotal in LoL DFS, particularly 4-3 and 3-3-1 stacks.
-Game stacking isn’t a winning proposition over the long run because ultimately, there’s a losing team. If you look at the statistics of losing teams in LoL, you’ll notice they will lack engagements (kills, creeps score), which ultimately hurts their score. However, there are losing teams that are aggressive and if you’re picking underdogs, you want to make sure they’re going after engagements.
-Speaking of engagements – you want to make sure that the players you select are looking for fights as often as possible. More fights = more opportunity for points. Simple enough, right?
League of Legends LPL/LCK Vegas Odds
LGD Gaming (+438) vs. Royal Never Give Up (-607)
LNG Esports (+258) vs. Edward Gaming (-331)
JD Gaming (+188) vs. Invictus Gaming (-234)
T1 (-668) vs. SANDBOX Gaming (+487)
Griffin (-100) vs. Afreeca Freecs (-121)
Zoom – Kanavi – Yagao – LokeN – LvMao
TheShy – Leyan – Rookie – Puff – Southwind
Flandre – Xx – Maple – Light – Duan
Jinoo – Jiejie – Scout – Hope – Meiko
Lies – Peanut – Yuuki – Kramer – Killua
Royal Never Give Up
Langx – XLB – Xiaohu – Betty – Ming
The LCK will not provide lineups before lock. They’re more consistent with their lineups but the fact that they don’t provide lineups before lock obviously creates some risk.
Royal Never Give Up (-607) is the deserving top play in this five game slate as they check nearly every relevant box. RNG has won 61.5% of their games this season and they’ve posted a 1.26 kill to death ratio, the fifth best mark in the LPL. Their matchup against LGD Gaming is the best one in this slate. LGD Gaming is averaging 15.9 deaths per game this spring season, which ranks third worst in the LPL. They’ve also averaged 14 kills per game. It’s a very aggressive team but they’re also a below average team. The challenge with RNG is stacking them around their ADC (Betty) or MID (Xiaohu) cripples the rest of your roster given how expensive these players are. You’ll have to build through their support (Ming) at captain in order to run a 4-3 stack with another high end stack in this slate. Otherwise, you can build through their JNG (XLB) or TOP (LangX) at captain for $10,800 and can still bring back viable stacks.
The other overwhelming favorite in this slate is T1 (-668), a team that’s ranked second in kill to death ratio (1.60) and second in win rate (72.2%). Their matchup against SANDBOX Gaming is a good one but it’s pretty boring. SANDBOX Gaming is just slightly below league average in both kills per game and deaths per game. They’ve only won 40% of their games this spring season. T1 is a significantly better team and are in a clear position to win today. The other positive is that you can build 4-2-1 stacks with favorites if you build through their MID (Faker) or ADC (Teddy), their best players. T1 could be viewed as the second or potentially third best play in this slate.
All things considered, it’s possible to give Edward Gaming (-331) the nod over T1 tonight. They’re not as dominant of a team over in the LPL but their 1.36 kill to death ratio ranks third in the league and they’ve won nearly 60% of their games. They’re also clearly facing a below average team in LNG Esports, who’s averaging 14.4 deaths per game (sixth worst mark in the league). Their 38.6% win rate ranks third worst in the LPL. It’s an upside spot for Edward Gaming and outside of their stud ADC (Hope), their other players have been priced as the third or fourth most expensive options at their respective positions. That opens up a bit more roster flexibility and stacking possibilities. Aodi, their TOP, is priced at $9,900 at the captain spot on DraftKings. He’s a good example of a cost effective option that holds a bit more upside than a support player at captain and won’t cripple the rest of your roster.
Invictus Gaming (-234) has performed as the top team in the LPL (76.9% win rate, averaging a league high 17.7 kills per game) this season. Their matchup against JD Gaming is a very difficult one and they’re priced up given how well they score. It’s not an upside matchup but Invictus Gaming is good enough to score well regardless of matchup. They deserve to be considered in tournaments despite how stacked my top plays section is today.
You’re going to find value in the Afreeca Freecs (-121) vs. Griffin (-100) matchup today. The challenge is that both of these teams are below average in the LCK. On a positive note, you’ll likely get some potentially good scores on the winning team but their upsides are still a bit muted.
Frankly, JD Gaming (+188) are likely better values as underdogs than the LCK teams above. For starters, despite JD Gaming having the better team and clearly better scoring talent, they’re cheaper than both Afreeca Freecs and Griffin. Also, while Invictus Gaming is a very good team, they’re also averaging 15.7 deaths per game, which is the fourth worst mark in the LPL. IF JD Gaming pulls off the win, they’re going to score significantly better than the value LCK teams. Even if they lose, their better players could still reach 70 DraftKings points. You’ll likely need more than that to win a tournament but they’re clearly the best underdog in this slate and will have a chance to pull off the upset.