We’re back for some more LoL action tonight! Before we get to the picks, here are some elements that we tackled in yesterday’s article that are relevant for us moving forward.
- There are six positions you’ll have to fill in your LoL lineups. Top, Jungle (JNG), Middle (MID), Attack Damage Carry (ADC), Support (SUP) and Team. The former five are actual positions that players take in the map, while Team is just an additional one that DraftKings added and will accrue less scoring. In other words, Team is the least important position when it comes to roster construction.
- LoL is a lot like baseball stacking wise. However, you want to stack players from a single team, not games.
- Game stacking isn’t a winning proposition over the long run because ultimately, there’s a losing team. If you look at the statistics of losing teams in LoL, you’ll notice they will lack engagements (kills, creeps score), which ultimately hurts their score. However, there are losing teams that are aggressive and if you’re picking underdogs, you want to make sure they’re going after engagements.
- Speaking of engagements – you want to make sure that the players you select are looking for fights as often as possible. More fights = more opportunity for points. Simple enough, right?
1) Puff ($8,200)
Puff is part of Invictus Gaming, a team that’s a slate leading -833 favorite. He’s also an ADC (Attack Damage Carry) and is the highest scorer on his team. In two games that have gone the distance this season, Puff has posted an absurd 30 kill game and an 18 kill game with 25 assists and a 957 creep score. That 30 kill game resulted in a 130 DraftKings points performance. 130! There are certainly some players in this slate that have upside in the 100s, but 130? If you’re fading Puff, it’s because a) you’re not expecting Invictus Gaming to win, which would be a shocking development or b) you’re expecting a quick blowout victory. Otherwise, there’s no reason to consider a fade here. Puff should be viewed as the top play on the board this evening.
2) Doinb ($8,000)
Doinb is part of FunPlus Phoenix, a team that’s a massive -769 favorite in this slate. He’s taken over the MID position for FunPlus Phoenix. Like Puff, Doinb is the highest scorer on his team. In 11 games this season, FunPlus Phoenix has generated 184 kills, which is the second highest total in the LPL league. This team is always looking for fights and Doinb is quite literally in the middle of everything. He’s posted double digit kills in each of his last five games. He’s quite good even when his team loses, but his Fantasy production clearly takes on another level when his team wins a competitive game. Expect Doinb and his team to be very popular tonight and for very obvious reasons.
3) Lwx ($7,800)
Another FunPlus Phoenix player, Lwx plays the ADC position for the highest kill team in this slate. Suning isn’t a bad team – they carry a 5-4 record to this matchup and they tend to keep games competitive. If they manage to make this one a competitive game, Lwx and his average of 11 kills per game over the last five should be able to rack up the points. His floor is typically pretty strong given his high creep score per game (814.6).
4) Tian ($7,400)
You guessed it – FunPlus Phoenix is the chalk of this slate. Tian plays Jungler for FunPlus Phoenix and plays his role very well. Over the last five games, Tian has averaged 22 assists per game along with nearly 8 kills. Jungler is typically not a high upside position but you still want to get out if with an above average score relative to the rest of the Junglers in this slate. Given the context, Tian should finish with a strong score.
5) TheShy ($6,200)
TheShy is plays TOP for Invictus Gaming, a team that’s averaging a slate high 1.05 combined kills per minute. LGD Gaming tends to keep games close and they’ve recorded 148 deaths this season – fifth highest number in the LPL. They’re not a passive team and that should bode well for TheShy and Invictus Gaming. With FunPlus Phoenix having three guys that could play TOP, which increases the substitution risk, we view TheShy as a safer play. If you’re looking to pivot, Natural (part of Dominus Esports) has posted some ugly numbers in loses but got up to 101 DraftKings points in a recent victory.
Suning is certainly the best team that projects to lose tonight outright. They’ve generated 137 kills this season – good for seventh best in the LPL. In their wins of late, their top players have generated over 100 DraftKings points. Of course, the challenge tonight is that they’re +395 underdogs so a win doesn’t look likely. However, if they manage to go the distance, it’s possible this slate gets weird in that they start to get into winning lineups. After all, they’re priced as some of the cheapest players in this slate.
Biubiu – SofM – Angel – huanfeng – SwordArt
GimGoon – Tian – Doinb – Lwx – Crisp
TheShy – Leyan – Rookie – Puff – Southwind
Lies – Peanut – Yuuki – Kramer – Chance
Natural – Xiaopeng – xiye – GALA – Mark
Morgan – beishang – Teacherma – Jiumeng – Missing