Daily Fantasy Rundown – March 16 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Stephen Curry (GS) and Russell Westbrook (OKC) are cash viable in a vacuum almost nightly as they challenge the pricing bands of most salary structures around the industry. That’s the case again tonight, although we don’t see a need to force them in cash games due to a combination of blowout risk (Curry), poor matchup (Westbrook), and opportunity cost (several mid-high priced point guards with better value projections). In tournaments, we prefer Curry. People may eschew his blowout risk in favor of Westbrook, but the ceiling here is just as high and you can get it a few hundred dollars cheaper and at a lower ownership percentage.
Next in line:
John Wall (WAS) – Wall doesn’t lag far behind Curry and Westbrook in terms of raw expected output tonight, and he comes at a much cheaper cost ($1,000 and $1,300 less respectively). Several times before we’ve talked about Chicago actually representing a plus matchup as the pace has picked up and defense fallen off under Hoiberg. With the team battling injuries, their defensive efficiency against point guards in particular has waned. Here’s a relevant Tweet from Adam Levitan today:
DRose 81st of 82 PGs in defensive real plus-minus. JWall career 41.5 DK ppg home v 38.6 road. Corpse of Tony Parker 20-12-4 on Rose last wk.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) March 16, 2016
Throw in a home game for Wall (historically averages a few more Fantasy points at home than on the road) and the potential for Bradley Beal to be out (Wall averages higher usage and assist rates with Beal out), and Wall is a great option to pay up for in all formats without spending Curry/Westbrook money.
Isaiah Thomas (BOS) – Thomas is the point guard we have the most desire to build around this evening. Jae Crowder‘s absence should leave Thomas with a few extra minutes of playing time as the team’s rotation becomes a touch tighter. We’d set his baseline in the mid-thirties minutes rather than the low-thirties. He’s not yet priced for this, and the game environment is very friendly this evening. The Celtics take on a Thunder team that is very fast paced (eighth in the NBA) but not as defensively stout as most top teams (24th in defensive efficiency against point guards, 29th over their last 10 games). Since Boston is an even faster paced team, we’re expecting a shootout here and Vegas agrees, pegging this game with a hefty 220 total. The volume in this game (minutes and increased possessions per minute) should be more than enough for Thomas to exceed value thresholds around the industry.