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3/18 NBA DFS: Make It Easy By Playing Harden

3/18 NBA DFS: Make It Easy By Playing Harden
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – March 18 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel

Top Plays:

In excellent spots, both Stephen Curry (GS) and Russell Westbrook (OKC) are two of our four overall highest projected scoring players (have Curry alone at the top and then Westbrook/Cousins/Harden muddled together). Often times, we lean Westbrook over Curry due to a more competitive game atmosphere, but the switch is flipped tonight. Westbrook’s Thunder are hefty 16 point favorites over a bad, injury riddled Philadelphia team. Meanwhile, Curry’s Warriors are nine point home favorites against a quality Mavericks team. It’s not often we see a single digit home spread, and in seven games decided by 15 points or less since the ASB, Curry has averaged 36.4 minutes per game, with a floor of 35. Curry is averaging an astronomical 1.41 FanDuel points per minute on the season, which puts him at 51.5 FanDuel points on average in 36.4 minutes, 5.3 points higher than his value threshold. He’s someone we’re looking to pay up for in all formats, although injury situations could lead to a plethora of cap relief options at the position, which leaves us falling just short of calling Curry a must play in cash games.

Westbrook definitely comes with some blowout risk against a terrible 76ers team. However, his astonishing volume in all aspects of the game and the ease of the matchup still gives him a high floor. We’re siding with Curry because we’re expecting 4-5 more minutes on average in these matchups, but Westbrook’s triple-double ability even in limited time and the scary thought of full minutes in the off chance this game stays close gives him an absolutely meaningful ceiling in tournament formats. We’re lukewarm in cash games since we prefer Curry and you can’t afford both of them, especially with some solid values below the average cost of a roster spot at the position.

Value Play:

Brandon Knight (PHX) – Knight is a superb value on FanDuel where he’s priced at just $6,500, coming in below the average cost of a roster spot. After just one game off the bench, Knight was quickly reinserted into the starting lineup, playing the minutes and seeing the type of responsibilities in line with his season long marks. He’s underpriced for that role to begin with, but a matchup against the Lakers (29th in defensive efficiency against point guards) gives him a ton of profit potential. He’s a phenomenal option on FanDuel and one of the reasons we fall short of calling Curry a must play. It’s possible to use Knight with one of the point guard options below to ensure you can pay up for James Harden at a scarcer position.

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