Daily Fantasy Rundown – March 28 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
UPDATE: DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, and Rajon Rondo were all ruled out just prior to publication. We will address that situation in alerts.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Westbrook is a fine value on DraftKings where high volume players like him are simply underpriced. In general, though, we prefer him in tournaments. While an expected close game against the Raptors is a good sign for his volume, we’re hesitant to pay up here in a less than stellar matchup (Raptors are sixth in defensive efficiency against point guards, 28th in pace), especially with the profit potential of other point guards in action. Westbrook is a very safe option, but we’d be a bit greedier here and pay up at either small forward (Durant, more positional scarcity) or center (Towns, best stud value in a vacuum) .
Next in line: We view Damian Lillard (POR) (elite matchup but blowout risk) and Kyle Lowry (TOR) (superb game environment) as the next in line options. They project similarly enough that we prefer Lowry on DraftKings at a large discount to Lillard, but would use Lillard over Lowry where priced similarly.
Ricky Rubio (MIN) – Last time Rubio faces the Suns (two weeks ago exactly), he shot just 27.3 percent from the field….and still put up 50.8 DraftKings points. We’re expecting him to decimate Phoenix again as they are an up tempo team (fourth in the NBA in pace) and horrific defensively, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency against point guards (and dropping), allowing the fourth most assists per 48 minutes to the position, which is Rubio’s strongest asset (42 percent assist rate on the season). Additionally, the sloppy Phoenix guards allow the third most steals per 48 minutes to opposing point guards, and with a 3.4 steal rate on the season, Rubio is leading the league in steal rate for the third time in four seasons. Even with his price gradually rising, Rubio is a fantastic value play in all formats across the industry.