March 5 EPL DFS Picks: Sanford and SigurdsSon
Welcome to this week’s Premier League content. We have some great news from DraftKings this week, including a huge EPL contest that they’re running that they’ve opened up qualifiers for. On top of that, the $27 GPP looks solid this week at 638 people. The slate is fun, and there are some interesting matches on the horizon, with some sneaky plays. Let’s get to it!
The Top Choice – Joe Hart ($4,500) – Hart is extremely expensive and extremely safe. Aston Villa are absolutely horrible, and Hart is facing them at home after Manchester City got embarrassed midweek. This should be a blowout and even if Villa finds a way to score, the almost guaranteed win is a great start towards safety. He is VERY expensive, so he isn’t a must in cash games, but he is an option.
The Second Top Choice – Fraser Forster ($4,200) – Forster has been absolutely fantastic since coming back from injury and you can count the last two matches as outliers. The match at Chelsea was extremely tough and the one against Bournemouth wasn’t easy either, especially on the road. The chances of a clean sheet and a win here are huge, and that alone is worth rostering Forster. Use him in cash games with confidence.
GPP Play – Lukasz Fabianski ($3,800) – Fabianski is $400 cheaper and it’s not hard to see why. Swansea have not been great in any aspect of the game and he hasn’t kept a clean sheet in his last six games. A home match versus Norwich can change that. There is risk here with Fabianski, as he may get a low shots against and concede a lone goal, but there is also upside in a clean sheet and a win plus saves at a lower price than the top tier of goalkeepers.
The Top Choice – Cedric Soares ($4,500) – Cedric has had several bad matchups in a row and his form has understandably dipped during the tough period. The matchup here is much better and we can expect him to once again return to his reliable days. He is expensive, but he is worth it and if you decide to spend up on any defender, he should be the one.
The Risky One – Kyle Naughton ($2,600) – Naughton had played from the bench for a while but got a start against Arsenal and helped his team to a very valuable win. He played a decent match and unsurprisingly didn’t get too involved in the attack. A home match against Norwich could change that. Naughton should have all the opportunity to exceed his value at $2,600 and game-log watchers won’t see the upside here. Naughton is a high-enough per-minute producer to be considered in cash games at this price.
Defender Notes: If Gael Clichy starts, he’s worth using in cash and GPPs at his price, but I expect him to be on the bench. Christian Fuchs is too expensive at this point and the matchup is unideal. Ryan Bertrand is a nice mid-range target, especially since he’s been playing in midfield but still has clean sheet opportunity and doesn’t take a midfielder slot away. A lot of value usually opens up when lineups are announced, so check in on Twitter for updates early Saturday morning.
The Top Play – Gylfi Sigurdsson ($6,800) – Sigurdsson was rested against Arsenal on Wednesday and Swansea still came out with the win. The good news was that Gylfi was brought on at halftime and made all the difference in the match. With him rested now, I am expecting him to start on Saturday. A home match against Norwich gives him a great floor between free-kicks and corners and the upside is immense. I hope Gylfi is a forgotten man from those looking at game-logs, as I believe he should be a staple in this slate.
The Value Play – Jesus Navas ($4,100) – Manchester City is dealing with a number of injuries and Navas has a great shot to start again. He faces Aston Villa, the worst team in the league by a margin, and his strengths give him a great floor for cash games. Manchester City could score several goals in this match, and exposure to them will be essential. Navas is a great way to fit in some extra exposure at an affordable price.
The GPP Play – Sadio Mane ($5,400) – Mane has really struggled lately but injuries to Shane Long and Charlie Austin could give him another start this weekend. The matchup is ideal, and while Mane is a bit hard to trust in cash games, there is plenty of opportunity for him to exceed value against Sunderland. He should be a premium GPP option if he starts on Saturday.
The Other Value Play – Andros Townsend ($3,900) – Townsend’s price remains low despite a number of great performances in a row. The Newcastle midfielder has registered at least five crosses in each of his last five matches and that gives him a good enough floor to be considered in cash games. He has goal upside, and Newcastle faces Bournemouth at home for what should be a good matchup. Townsend is cash viable.
Midfielder Notes: Wahbi Khazri’s matchup is very tough against a possession heavy Southampton but he does enough to be worth consideration. He’s not a primary choice, but is rosterable in cash. Dimitri Payet has been incredible but the away matchup scares me in cash games, making him a better GPP target. At his current price, he’s only met value three times in his last 10 matches. Willian’s matchup is much better and if he starts, he is a better cash game target than Payet. Xherdan Shaqiri’s ownership will be high, but he is only a GPP target for me in a tough away matchup. People will chase his points and there is risk in getting burned there.
The Top Play – Sergio Aguero ($8,600) – Aguero has the matchup of a lifetime. He played a relatively poor game in midweek against Liverpool but now facing Aston Villa is a game-changer, making Aguero too risky to fade with how large his upside is. I don’t often advocate for expensive strikers in cash games, but considering Aguero can have a 30 point outing with just one goal scares me in the easiest of matchups. The Manchester City striker is an elite GPP play and should be seriously considered in cash as well.
The GPP Target – Graziano Pelle ($4,700) – Injuries to Shane Long and Charlie Austin will likely give Pelle another shot at the starting job. The price has fallen since the beginning of the season and the environment is great for him this weekend. Pelle gets a boost if Tadic starts, but he is a good option regardless.
Forward Notes: Max Gradel is still cheap enough to be considered in cash games. He takes an incredible amount of corners and at $4,100, the away matchup isn’t enough to get me off of him. Diego Costa is a great GPP option but may not play the entire match, according to Hiddink. Sterling is worth a look in GPPs if he starts, but should not be considered in cash. Troy Deeney is in the same boat.