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3/8 NBA DFS: To The Victor Belong The Spoils

3/8 NBA DFS: To The Victor Belong The Spoils
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – March 8 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings

Top Plays:

The top options in our model with very similar expected values are John Wall (WAS) and Damian Lillard (POR), who face off against one another. This game has the highest total of the night at 214.5, and should remain competitive. The case for Wall is a higher starting baseline (averages 1.8 more DraftKings points per game than Lillard), and an expected uptick in playmaking responsibility with Bradley Beal out. Wall’s usage and assist rates rise from 28.5 and 43.1 respectively with Beal playing to 30.2 and 51.4 respectively with Beal out. Additionally, Wall, who is normally ineffective as the pick-n-roll ball handler, could see increased volume and efficiency on those play types as Portland funnels more opportunities to the guard in those situations (as evidenced by second highest frequency allowed in the league) and isn’t particularly adept at stopping them (10th percentile in terms of points per possession (PPP) allowed).

The case for Lillard is that he’ll play up in pace against Washington (fifth fastest in the league), he’s at home (both Wall (career) and Lillard (this season) have produced better at home), and his team holds the higher team total. Ultimately, we prefer Wall’s situation tonight, especially where he’s priced the same or even a bit cheaper, as he is on DraftKings.

Next in line: Kyle Lowry (TOR) (projects as a similar per dollar value as the top plays at the PG position as Lowry has a great matchup against Brooklyn; however, we’d rather find the extra few dollars to pay up for Wall or Lillard in an expected competitive game over the potential blowout Lowry will be involved in)

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