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May 10 MLB DFS: I Love Goooooold
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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May 10 MLB DFS: I Love Gooooooold

00:45 Starting Pitchers
09:58 Catchers
12:10 First Base
14:34 Second Base
17:41 Shortstop
20:08 Third Base
22:30 Outfield
26:15 Cash Game Roster Construction
27:50 Stacks

premium_access_now  HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | WELL-HIT RATINGS

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May 10 MLB DFS Pro-Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Drew Smyly (TB)

Tier Two

2) Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – weather risk

3) Joe Ross (WAS)

4) Jacob deGrom (NYM)

5) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)

Tier Three

6) Juan Nicasio (PIT)

7) Matt Wisler (ATL)

8) Adam Conley (MIA)

9) Alex Wood (LAD)

10) Hector Santiago (LAA)

11) Jose Berrios (MIN)

12) Wade Miley (SEA)

13) Carlos Rodon (CHW)

14) Trevor Bauer (CLE)

15) Adam Morgan (PHI)

Drew Smyly (TB) is our top-ranked SP on this slate and he’s rather affordable on both sites. Smyly has held the big improvements in his strikeout rates (31.5 K Rate) with the Rays and he’s coupled it with excellent command (5.4 BB Rate) and a solid 6.5 hard-soft hit rate. He’ll take on a Mariners offense that is solid against LHP (top half in wRC+, bottom half in K Rate against) but features a few of their top hitters from the left side and has a slumping Nelson Cruz battling a forearm injury. There are so many ways you can build on this slate which features an 11 total in Coors Field, but no pitcher has the upside of Smyly on this slate. He’s cheaper than Stephen Strasburg was last night and ranks comparatively.

If you’re not paying up for Smyly, our second tier features some undervalued options with a bit less upside. Kyle Hendricks (CHC) doesn’t throw hard (86.8 mph avg FB) but he walks no one (5.3 BB Rate), keeps the ball on the ground (60.5 GB Rate), and misses enough bats (20.2 K Rate). The upside isn’t immense for Hendricks but against a Padres’ offense that ranks 29th in wRC+ and has the third highest K Rate against RHP, the stability earns him strong cash game consideration. Joe Ross (WAS) has more strikeout ability and will face a Tigers’ offense without one of Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, or Nick Castellanos to accommodate the lack of DH. Ross will likely face a ton of RHBs and he has utterly dominated them as a big leaguer (.200 wOBA, .076 ISO allowed, 26.8 K Rate). Ross is reasonably priced on both sites and if the weather becomes an issue in Chicago is a fine alternative to Hendricks on multiple SP sites or as an alternative to Smyly on single SP sites like FanDuel.

After the second tier, things get very murky with a large group of starters clustered together in a mix of intriguing skill-sets, matchups, and K Rates. Juan Nicasio (PIT) gets a difficult park environment but a rather soft matchup against the Reds. Matt Wisler (ATL) and Adam Morgan (PHI) square off in a game with a total of just seven which speaks more to the quality of opposing offenses as opposed to their individual skill-sets. Jose Berrios (MIN), Carlos Rodon (CHW), and Trevor Bauer (CLE) all have intriguing K Rates but difficult matchups against strong opposing offenses. Adam Conley (MIA) faces a Brewers lineup designed to hit LHP very well but he’s flashed intriguing skills of late as well. Of course there is also our nemesis Alex Wood (LAD) who has finally started turning swinging strikes into strikeouts and gets a Mets offense that is weaker against LHP. In general, this tier is better suited for tournaments but the occasional cheap price tag may have you chasing them in cash games as a salary relief secondary starter to get offensive exposure to Coors Field.

Catcher Rankings

1) Welington Castillo (ARZ)

2) Brian McCann (NYY)

3) Buster Posey (SF)

4) Francisco Cervelli (PIT)

5) Stephen Vogt (OAK)

Welington Castillo (ARZ) is our top ranked catcher thanks to the power of Coors Field and a matchup against a weak opposing LHP. Castillo owns a .368 wOBA and .222 ISO against lefties since 2013 and should hit cleanup. Unfortunately, he’s priced out of your cash game range on most sites. Buster Posey (SF) gets the benefit of a left handed starter which makes him a strong play despite a lower run scoring environment in San Francisco. Posey owns a .380 wOBA and .190 ISO against LHP since 2013. Brian McCann (NYY) gets to take aim at that short porch in Yankee Stadium and Kris Medlen has been vulnerable to power since returning as a starter last season (.329 wOBA, .169 ISO against LHBs). If you need additional salary relief, Tyler Flowers (ATL) could earn a solid lineup spot and carries a respectable .311 wOBA against LHP since the start of last season.

First Base Rankings

1) Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ)

2) Joey Votto (CIN)

3) Jose Abreu (CHW)

4) Chris Davis (BAL)

5) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) is the top overall hitter in our model and a priority for us on this slate. Chris Rusin has surrendered a .369 wOBA and .188 ISO to RHBs in his career. Goldschmidt’s price tag isn’t as exaggerated for Coors Field as we’d expect and this matchup is perfect for his skill-set (.444 wOBA, .242 ISO since the start of 2015 against LHP). There are some viable cheap alternatives at first base that our model thinks are slightly weaker values to Goldschmidt. Carlos Santana (CLE) and John Jaso (PIT) crack the list while Ryan Howard (PHI) is a pure power punt on FanDuel.

Second Base Rankings

1) Jean Segura (ARZ) – where eligible

2) Jason Kipnis (CLE)

3) Jose Altuve (HOU)

4) Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

5) Brian Dozier (MIN)

Jean Segura (ARZ) with the platoon advantage and leading off in Coors Field is atop our rankings where eligible. He ranks inside our Top 25 overall hitters. He’s priced like a Top 10 hitter on DraftKings so while a fine play, he’s probably better in tournaments unless you can swing some serious salary relief elsewhere in cash games. As a result, this may be a position you look for some salary relief. Jason Kipnis (CLE) has a really interesting price tag and doesn’t rank too far below Segura in our rankings. Chris Devenski has been far more effective than we projected in his first two starts, so there is a bit of uneasiness in this projection but Kipnis has a nice lineup spot and a solid park shift. His price tag is more valuable on FanDuel ($3,200) than DraftKings ($4,100). If not paying for Segura or Kipnis, you’ll want salary relief as a priority out of the position. Guys like Derek Dietrich (MIA), Jed Lowrie (OAK), and possibly Cesar Hernandez (PHI) could fill that role.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Carlos Correa (HOU)

2) Manny Machado (BAL) – where eligible

3) Trevor Story (COL)

4) Jean Segura (ARZ) – where eligible

5) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

6) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

7) Jimmy Rollins (CHW)

Carlos Correa (HOU) tops our shortstop rankings beating out both the Coors Field alternatives as he ranks inside our Top 10 hitters overall. Trevor Bauer is a unique pitcher to pick on. He allows a ton of fly balls and he’s vulnerable to SBs allowed, so you’ve got upside a couple different ways. On a site like FanDuel, it’s fine to take the salary relief from Jean Segura (ARZ) and pile in a little more Coors Field exposure. Francisco Lindor (CLE) is another alternative to Correa in cash games, but we prefer him on sites where the gap is wider.

Third Base Rankings

1) Nolan Arenado (COL)

2) Manny Machado (BAL)

3) Kris Bryant (CHC)

4) Adrian Beltre (TEX)

5) Todd Frazier (CHW)

6) Brandon Drury (ARZ)

Third base is an interesting position in our model. Nolan Arenado (COL), Manny Machado (BAL), and Kris Bryant (CHC) all crack our Top 20 overall hitters. Adrian Beltre (TEX), Todd Frazier (CHW), and Brandon Drury (ARZ) aren’t far behind inside our Top 40 overall hitters. Brandon Drury‘s (ARZ) power performance this season is out of line with his profile but it’s backed up by an incredible 38.8 percent hard hit rate. If you buy into Drury’s power surge this year or simply want more exposure to Coors Field, he’s an acceptable option to spend on but our model sees slightly stronger values in Adrian Beltre (TEX) on FanDuel and Kris Bryant (CHC) on DraftKings.

Outfield Rankings

1) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

2) Bryce Harper (WAS)

3) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

4) Gregory Polanco (PIT)

5) Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

6) Starling Marte (PIT)

7) Mike Trout (LAA)

8) Mookie Betts (BOS)

9) Yasmany Tomas (ARZ)

10) Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

11) Michael Brantley (CLE)

12) Kris Bryant (CHC) – where eligible

13) Billy Hamilton (CIN)

14) Gerardo Parra (COL)

15) Ryan Braun (MIL)

16) Adam Jones (BAL)

17) George Springer (HOU)

18) Jose Bautista (TOR)

19) Dexter Fowler (CHC)

20) Josh Reddick (OAK)

Once again the Pirates outfielders all rank well in our model and are strong tournament plays in Cincinnati against Alfredo Simon, but our emphasis in the outfield is really on Coors Field and the Rockies outfielders who hit from the left side. The easiest way to get exposure to the Pirates talented outfield in cash games is Gregory Polanco (PIT) and a relatively affordable price tag on FanDuel at $3,400. Rubby de la Rosa has allowed a .396 wOBA and .236 ISO to LHBs since the start of last season. Carlos Gonzalez (COL) is our top overall ranked outfielder but Charlie Blackmon (COL) isn’t far behind. Both are affordable on DraftKings but Gonzalez is our emphasis on FanDuel. If you’re in need of salary relief at the position, Randal Grichuk (STL) could stand out as a strong option if he’s hitting cleanup. Hector Santiago‘s early season velocity gains have faded and Santiago has allowed a .211 ISO to RHBs since 2015 while Grichuk owns a .232 ISO and .337 wOBA during that span. Other site specific values include Billy Hamilton (CIN) on FanDuel and Colby Rasmus (HOU) on DraftKings. Adam Jones (BAL) is another viable value target on both sites, but as we indicated yesterday picking on Jose Berrios really strong stuff is best used in tournaments as opposed to cash games. Most of Jones’ strong rating is attributed to the weak bullpen behind Berrios and his elevated BB Rates which don’t translate as well to DFS scoring.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Arizona Diamondbacks

2) Pittsburgh Pirates

3) Colorado Rockies

Tier Two

4) Chicago White Sox

5) Oakland Athletics

6) Boston Red Sox

7) Washington Nationals

8) Chicago Cubs

9) Miami Marlins

Coors Field always takes precedence but the Reds putrid bullpen and Alfredo Simon have the Pirates in our top tier as well. After disappointing owners last night in a slightly more difficult spot, they’ll likely see lower ownership on Tuesday and make for a stronger tournament option than they were on Monday. The second tier of stacks are strong options to take shots on in tournaments.

Tournament Stacks

Oakland Athletics – Sean O’Sullivan got off to a strong start in the Minors, so we’re not going overboard picking on him in cash given high opportunity cost. However, O’Sullivan’s MLB history is terrible – 5.96 ERA with peripherals that pop as ones we like to stack against (wild and gives up homers) The Athletics are quite affordable to stack and pair with expensive Coors bats, making them a team to look at in tournaments.

Houston Astros – The Astros will fly under the radar due to the perception of Trevor Bauer‘s elevated strikeout rate and the volatility that brings in production but we suggest embracing that volatility in tournaments. Bauer is fly ball prone and getting a stark park downgrade. He’s also very vulnerable to stolen bases and the Astros have a unique combination of power and speed atop their lineups. The Astros are always a very valuable stack because they take up few premium positions as Altuve and Correa fill two of the scarcest positions allowing them to be combined with many different other mini-stacks.

MLB Daily Analysis

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