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May 10 MLB DFS: Zack Attackkkkk
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Welcome to May 10 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for May 10 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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May 10 MLB DFS Position Timestamps

00:40 Starting Pitcher
09:30 Catcher
12:13 First Base
16:06 Second Base
20:54 Third Base
23:58 Shortstop
28:40 Outfield
33:51 Stacks

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  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

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Range of Outcome Projections

May 10 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

Zack Greinke (ARI) is our top rated SP on the slate as it looks like he’ll draw the home start for Arizona. There are a few things that could change here. First of all, Greinke isn’t the confirmed starter yet, and we’ve guessed on the Vegas line. Secondly, if the roof is open, really hot temperatures would benefit the offense and hurt Greinke. Thirdly, both Bryce Harper and Matt Adams were out of the lineup last night, although that appears to simply be a rest situation with Washington facing a LHP.

Assuming things hold as we project, Greinke will carry the highest K projection on the slate due to a combination of his K rate baselines (around a 25-26% baseline but has sat at 27% between last season and this season) and outs/batters faced baseline (highest on the slate). It’s a subpar matchup against a Nationals team that has been good in terms of wRC+ and K% against RHP, but Greinke’s individual skills and reasonable price tags make him a good SP1 to use in cash on both sites. The one concern from a skill perspective is that Greinke has allowed a 41.7 Hard%, marking the third straight year that metric has risen substantially. That explains why his actual ERA is much higher than expected ERA formulas.

Our next in line SPs are Walker Buehler (LAD) and Miles Mikolas (STL). Both are pitching extremely well, which has led to an increase in price tags. They’re a bit overpriced. In Buehler’s case, it’s tough to pay huge price tags when one rough inning can lead to a 4-5 IP outing and likely guarantees he falls short of value thresholds. He’s a better option on FD since the price tag is looser, but you need an outing that combines efficiency and a high K rate (like last start). Either that, or other pitchers fail, which effectively would lower his value threshold (not on our site but in practice).

In Mikolas’ case, we’ve seen him pitch deeper into games (7 IP in four straight), but the K rate makes it tough to justify a 10k-plus tag on DK. Mikolas currently has just a 19.3 K%, which is about right given an 8.6 SwStr rate. He’s a good pitcher because of his well above average GB and BB rates. Again, Mikolas is more justifiable on FD as a cheaper alternative to Greinke.

On DK, one potential route to take is to pair together some high K upside mid-tier options. The best options if going that route are some combination of Garrett Richards (LAA), Jose Berrios (MIN), and Caleb Smith (MIA). Richards has by far the best Vegas odds of the bunch, pegged as a -155 home favorite with a 3.6 IRTA. We’ve seen a lot of volatility from Richards early in the season, both good (30 K%) and bad (13.3 BB%, just two starts of 6 IP or more).

Berrios and Smith both have subpar matchups and that’s somewhat represented by IRTA over 4 and underdog statuses. However, if you’re focused simply on individual upside, the potential is there. Berrios has a strong 23.3 K% but improvements in BB rate and a Keuchel-esque -6 Hard-Soft% indicates the ERA will likely drop if he maintains the same skills. Smith’s upside is a bit more singular; he has a whopping 33.8 K%. However, there’s likely some regression going to happen there, and he’s a fly ball risky guy that isn’t expected to work deep into games.

If you are making the spend up for Greinke on DK, Ian Kennedy (KC) is a sub-$7k complement that still leaves you money to grab exposure to some of the best offensive plays on the slate. Ian Kennedy in a hitter’s park definitely comes with a hint of terror give his absurd HR rates (ZiPS projected 1.56 HR/9 ROS). However, this Orioles team is 28th in wRC+ against RHP with a high 25.7K%. Despite his overall issues, Kennedy has remained right around his career 21.7 K%, and he has a very favorable umpire.

Other options to consider in tournaments are Tyler Mahle (CIN) and Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS), who have the individual K rate upside to pay off their price tags despite subpar matchups.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY), Yasmani Grandal (LAD) and Salvador Perez (KC) top the catcher projections before a decent drop-off. Sanchez is priced more aggressively but has the platoon edge in Yankees’ Stadium albeit against a talented lefty in Eduardo Rodriguez. He’s a bit out of our price range but a fine pivot in tournaments. Grandal and Perez are priced more closely together and likely the duo you’re choosing between in cash games on DraftKings. Perez has the more favorable matchup against Chris Tillman (.353 wOBA, .211 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2016) and is in the better hitting environment in Baltimore but Grandal has the better skill set overall (.352 wOBA, .247 ISO against RHP compared to Perez’s .323/.202 since 2016) and is cheaper. Grandal will flood the optimals a bit more but either is a fine choice.

Beyond that trio up top, Chris Iannetta (COL), J.T. Realmuto (MIA), Manny Pina (MIL), and Russell Martin (TOR) come in as a secondary group of options. Pina and Iannetta benefit from Coors Field despite relatively weak lineup spots. Both make sense as part of stacks attacking Coors Field.

First Base

Cody Bellinger (LAD) tops the projections at first base in a favorable matchup against Tyler Mahle (.389 wOBA, .269 ISO since 2016 against LHP) who has allowed an incredible amount of power to lefties and is backed up by a primarily RH heavy bullpen. Bellinger carries a reasonable price tag that is playable in all formats, but our attention at the position is on a bit more value with Lucas Duda (KC) and Justin Smoak (TOR) priced favorably.

Duda faces Chris Tillman who hasn’t done much better against LHBs (.381 wOBA, .195 ISO allowed since 2016) in a favorable hitting environment in Baltimore (wind blowing out to RF). Duda remains way too cheap on FanDuel ($2,500) and is priced favorably on DraftKings as well ($3,400).

Justin Smoak (TOR) faces Mike Leake who has lost a little velocity this year and isn’t generating ground balls like he did in the past. The Blue Jays have an implied total approaching five runs and Smoak gets this matchup from his favored side (.349 wOBA, .238 ISO against RHP since 2016). Smoak is just $3,500 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel.    

First base is always loaded with depth. While Smoak and Duda are preferred cash game targets there are a slew of other reasonable plays in all formats. Chris Davis (BAL) is particularly interesting in tournaments. He’s been heating up a bit (homers in consecutive games) and been promoted back to a decent lineup spot. He’s facing a fly ball oriented pitcher in a park favorable for home runs and he remains cheap.

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI), Hanley Ramirez (BOS), and Justin Bour (MIA) are all viable secondary targets as well.

Second Base

D.J. LeMahieu (COL) tops the projections in Coors where the Rockies have a monstrous 6.3 implied total thanks to temperatures in the 80s and a matchup with Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin has seen his velocity drop nearly two miles per hour this year and has struggled to generate as many swinging strikes. Still, he’s been strong against RHBs (.252 wOBA , .128 ISO allowed this year to RHBs, .286/.107 since 2016). This is almost entirely a play on team success and lineup spot as we’re projecting LeMahieu to lead off.  On FanDuel, where the position is thin and LeMahieu’s price tag is reasonable, he’s flooding optimals. On DraftKings, where the price is a bit more elevated, the decision is less clear.

The primary contenders for LeMahieu at second base are Matt Carpenter (STL), Whit Merrifield (KC), and then site specific values with Jonathan Schoop (BAL) cheap on FanDuel and Yangervis Solarte (TOR) carrying 2B eligibility on DraftKings.

Merrifield has the great matchup with Tillman but an annoying price tag that is so close to LeMahieu that projections push for the Coors Field exposure. Carpenter is cheap on DraftKings but has a tough park despite the favorable matchup with Jordan Lyles and the improving hard hit rate. Solarte has a strong matchup with Mike Leake‘s struggles of late and like Smoak gets him from his preferred side. Schoop is more of a pure price play on FanDuel where he’s the one reasonable source of salary relief at the position.

In tournaments, Jonathan Villar (MIL) has some appeal as a trip to Coors Field helps emphasize his event upside even with an elevated price tag.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL) holds a meaningful edge over Josh Donaldson (TOR), Mike Moustakas (KC), and Travis Shaw (MIL) as the top echelon third basemen on this slate. Arenado is priced aggressively on both sites which given the depth of the position makes him a tough fit in cash games.

Donaldson is the most skilled hitter of the group and thus with similar price tags holds the edge over the other tier of third basemen. All three have great matchups against below average right handed pitchers in plus environments.

If you need salary relief, Matt Carpenter (STL) is down to $2,700 on FanDuel. He doesn’t have quite the strong scoring environment as his counterparts but Jordan Lyles (.405 wOBA, .225 ISO since 2016 to LHBs) is another favorable matchup. Carpenter’s hard hit rate remains solid despite frustrating results this season.

Shortstop

Manny Machado (BAL), Trevor Story (COL), and Trea Turner (WAS) aren’t separated by much at the top either in projection or price tag. Turner faces by far the most difficult opposing starting pitcher in Zack Greinke and has the team with lowest implied total so his projection takes the biggest hit on FanDuel where Runs/RBIs are weighted more heavily. Machado is the most skilled hitter and facing a fly ball oriented RHP in a friendly environment. Kennedy has allowed a .328 wOBA and .183 ISO to RHBs since 2016. Story has the best environment with the Rockies sporting a hefty 6.3 implied total.  With almost no value at the position on FanDuel, Story grades out as the preferred play but it’s an annoyingly expensive spend driven largely by the insanely tight pricing at the position.

On DraftKings, there are alternatives to provide some value with Eduardo Nunez (BOS) and Orlando Arcia (MIL) priced down to $3,100 and Chris Taylor (LAD) at $3,800. Arcia has an awful lineup spot but some of that is offset by Coors Field.

On FanDuel, Jean Segura (SEA) is the lone mid-tier target that could bring some salary relief at just $3,100 but comes with a below average matchup against J.A. Happ.

Outfield

Coors Field dominates the outfield situation with Charlie Blackmon (COL), Ryan Braun (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Lorenzo Cain (MIL) as four of the top six projected outfielders. Mike Trout (LAA) and Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) join them. If David Dahl (COL) got a good lineup spot, he’d also likely fit inside the top 10 where Carlos Gonzalez (COL) also resides. Neither pitcher in the Rockies-Brewers game has been good this year and with warmer temperatures we’ve got an 11.5 total on our hands. Ideally we’d like to grab some cash game exposure to the LHBs from this group but Ryan Braun has a solid price tag on both sites that makes him a viable target as well.

In tournaments, Stanton should go a bit under-owned due to Coors Field for a matchup against a LHP. The same goes for teammate Aaron Judge (NYY). Bryce Harper (WAS) and Mike Trout (LAA) are also typically a bit under-owned on these Coors Field slates where the outfielders eat up ownership.

The mid-tier doesn’t have a ton of elite values but Curtis Granderson (TOR) is affordable ($3,900) as the leadoff hitter with the platoon edge at home against Mike Leake. Domingo Santana (MIL) is a reasonably priced piece of Coors Field on both sites. Nelson Cruz (SEA) is affordable against a LHP in a strong hitting environment on DraftKings ($4,100). David Peralta (ARI), Joc Pederson (LAD), Teoscar Hernandez (TOR), and Aaron Hicks (NYY) are other affordable top of the order bats in good spots. Pederson is a potentially necessary piece of salary relief on FanDuel at just $2,500. He or Alex Verdugo (LAD) at $2,300 may be ways to fit more high end bats along with a solid starter.

In tournaments, Jorge Soler (KC) is an interesting power oriented pivot off the Coors outfielders. Soler’s had a hard hit rate pushing 30 percent over the last 15 days and getting a big park upgrade for his power against Chris Tillman‘s fly ball ways.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

2) Milwaukee Brewers

It’s no surprise that Coors tops the stack section, but the gap is especially large for tonight’s slate, as warm temperatures are contributing to an 11.5 game total. On the Colorado side, they get the benefit of facing Jhoulys Chacin, who sports a 5.44 FIP and is battling through diminished velocity (did bounce back a bit last start).

The Brewers are always one of our favorite stacks given their speed and power upside, and now they get the large massive park shift and guaranteed nine innings. They currently rank 15th in HRs and fourth in SBs.

Tier Two

3) Toronto Blue Jays

The top non-Coors stack of the day is a Blue Jays team with a 5 IRT at home against Mike Leake, who has allowed multiple runs in every start this season, including at least three in his last five starts. There are some major red flags in regards to Leake, most notably a sudden spike in BB rate and drop off in GB rate.

Tier Three

4) New York YAnkees

5) Kansas City Royals

6) Los Angeles Dodgers

7) Boston Red Sox

In this third tier, the Royals and Dodgers possess the most value. The Royals get a big park shift in their favor and face arguably the worst SP in all of baseball in Chris Tillman. After posting a 7.84 ERA in 19 starts and 24 appearances last year, he has a 9.24 ERA in 25.1 IP this year. Tillman has walked more than he’s struck out. He has a sub-40% GB rate. He has a 34.1 Hard-Soft%. It’s truly a wonder.

The Dodgers likely carry a lot less ownership at home and versus a better starting pitcher in Tyler Mahle. Mahle has had a solid start to the season, but he has a 4.62 ZiPS projected ERA and 1.64 HR/9. Mahle is missing bats but allows way too much hard-hit aerial contact. The Dodgers as a team hold better offensive baselines, which is why they are able to rate closer to the Royals despite a worse context. This is in part evidenced by a season long 22 Hard% (Inside Edge) compared to 17 for the Royals.

Tier Four

8) Arizona Diamondbacks

9) Baltimore Orioles

 

10) Washington Nationals

The Orioles and Nationals are both intriguing leverage/hedge stacks on this slate. Perhaps Ian Kennedy is not high owned, but if people find their way to him as an SP2 on DK, it will result in reduced Baltimore ownership. Despite their struggles, they do possess solid power upside throughout the lineup, and Ian Kennedy is extremely HR risky.

For the Nationals, high price tags on Buehler and Mikolas likely mean Greinke is one of the highest owned SPs on the slates. For all his strengths, Greinke is seeing reduced velocity that is likely in part responsible for a spike in Hard% and subsequently, HR/FB rate.

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