MLB DFS Daily Fantasy Rundown – May 11th, 2015
Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Catcher notes: I hate starting the content with a generic notes section, but the catcher position is unique on Monday. We don’t have any catchers that rank within our Top 60 overall hitters and as a result pricing will play a key role in your decision making. Unfortunately, the pricing varies wildly across the industry. Yasmani Grandal (LAD), Wilson Ramos (WAS), Russell Martin (TOR) and Salvador Perez (KC) represent our “top” options. Martin and Grandal are generally priced up after some recent strong performances but are most assured of a good lineup spot. I think they’re better as a part of stacks in tournaments than they are as solo pieces in cash games. Wilson Ramos and Salvador Perez come at more affordable prices on many sites. They don’t have a great lineup spots, but on the road in offenses we project well above average, the impact of hitting sixth should be mitigated. Ramos and Perez are two of the options we’re most likely to deploy in cash games. They each rank within 7-10 spots of one another in our model. Miguel Montero (CHC) typically doesn’t catch Jon Lester, but if he finds his way into the middle of the Cubs lineup in an elite hitting environment, he earns cash game consideration. A.J. Pierzysnki (ATL) has the benefit of an elite lineup spot and a great hitting environment. His price tag remains depressed compared to other catching options. Mike Leake is vulnerable to LH power (.333 wOBA, 1.13 HR/9) and a lot of that is because how homer friendly Great American Ballpark plays (inflates LH HRs 12 percent above the league average). On tighter pricing sites, Pierzynski’s more depressed price point could serve as a fine alternative. Caleb Joseph (BAL) has severely outperformed our expectations early in the season in both his BB Rate and his power. If he gets that sixth spot in the lineup we’ve seen some of late, he’s another Pierzynski-like alternative to the catchers who rank better in our model. Brian McCann (NYY) and Stephen Vogt (OAK) have strong matchups against opposing starters who have struggled getting lefties out, but the overall offensive environment pushes them down in our model. They generally have price tags commensurate or above the group of “top” options, so they’re better suited as solo tournament plays in our opinion.
Chris Davis (BAL) – Davis ranks as our second overall hitter on Monday’s slate. He’ll face Marco Estrada who has allowed 1.45 HR/9 to LHBs despite holding them to a .305 wOBA (largely due to a .255 BABIP). Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher, surrendering a 48 percent FB Rate to LHBs since 2012. Davis has crushed RHP the last few years (.380 wOBA, .281 ISO since 2012) and is a rather extreme fly ball hitter as well (just a 32.9 percent GB Rate against RHP). Davis is always a bit boom or bust because his value is home run dependent, but this is a good matchup for his home run probability. Davis has the single highest home run score in our model and it’s by a wide margin.
Eric Hosmer (KC) – We have three first basemen inside our Top Five overall hitters and seven inside our Top 15. Hosmer has shown substantial growth in his power early in the season (.221 ISO vs. career .147 ISO) which has taken his production from ordinary to elite. Hosmer is entering his peak offensive years and was always touted as an elite power hitter so his breakout isn’t a huge surprise, but I’m still a bit skeptical of how much power he’ll hold with a persistent GB Rate (46.4 percent this year, 51.6 percent career). In this matchup, I’m a bit less concerned. He’ll face Colby Lewis who has allowed a .354 wOBA and 1.20 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012. Lewis is an extreme fly ball pitcher (44.6 percent to LHBs since 2012) and Arlington has historically played well for LH power. Hosmer has many more ways to produce than Chris Davis (better all-around hitter, has some speed components), so where priced similarly I think he’s a better cash game play than Davis even though he ranks slightly behind Davis (fifth) in our model.
Adam LaRoche (CHW) – It’s likely the White Sox opt for Abreu’s bat in the National League environment which will push LaRoche to the bench make this recommendation moot. If they don’t, we want you to know LaRoche is a Top 20 option in our model and severely underpriced around the industry. Peralta is vulnerable to LH power (.348 wOBA, 1.26 HR/9 allowed since 2012) and LaRoche owns a .363 wOBA and .211 ISO against RHP since 2012.
Pedro Alvarez (PIT) – The recent lineup shakeup moving Josh Harrison down has put Pedro Alvarez into one of the coveted first five lineup spots. Alvarez is essentially a poor man’s version of Chris Davis on Monday. He’s compiled a .349 wOBA and .243 ISO against RHP since 2012 and faces Jerome Williams who has been ripped to the tune of a .347 wOBA and 1.13 HR/9 allowed to LHBs since 2012. Alvarez gets a big park shift in his favor and on the road his fifth place in the batting order is slightly more likely to see a fifth plate appearance than Chris Davis is at home. Alvarez also ranks inside our Top 20 overall hitters and is a viable alternative to spending up at the position.
Additional first base notes: Jose Abreu (CHW) and Joey Votto (CIN) each rank within our Top 10 overall hitters and Abreu actually ranks between Hosmer and Davis in our model. With Abreu, Peralta’s ability to really limit RH power (59.2 percent GB Rate, 0.69 HR/9 allowed since 2012) is a primary reason I end up choosing Hosmer or Davis where priced similarly. Votto gets a better matchup, in my opinion, against Shelby Miller who has allowed a 42.4 percent FB Rate and 1.13 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012. Anthony Rizzo (CHC), Edwin Encarnacion (TOR), and Freddie Freeman (ATL) all rank inside our Top 15 hitters. They have favorable matchups as well but elevated price points push them down my list of preferred targets in cash games. I’m very comfortable getting exposure in stacks or mini-stacks in tournaments. Kendrys Morales (KC) is a cheaper alternative to Eric Hosmer if you’d like to get exposure to the Royals lineup via first base. He ranks within our Top 30 hitters overall and benefits from the same matchup as Hosmer.
Neil Walker (PIT) – Walker cracks our Top 20 overall hitters and the next best second base eligible player ranks outside our Top 60. Walker has posted an impressive .358 wOBA and .198 ISO against RHP since 2012. He’s getting a favorable park shift in Philadelphia which inflates LH power nine percent above the league average compared to Pittsburgh which deflates it eight percent below the league average. He’s also facing a below average starter in Jerome Williams who has allowed a .347 wOBA and 1.13 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012. Walker is our preferred play at the position and by a rather wide margin.
Additional second base notes: Scooter Gennett (MIL) is a viable cheap alternative if you need salary relief at the position. Samardzija has allowed a .322 wOBA and 1.09 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012 and he’s allowing harder contact overall this season. Gennett has hit RHP well (.358 wOBA, .160 ISO) in his brief career and has been hitting second of late. Devon Travis (TOR) remains unusually cheap on DraftKings. He’s a fine option at the top of a very strong Blue Jays lineup. On other sites where he’s priced as a top play, I’d ignore him in cash games. Dustin Pedroia (BOS) has always hit LHP very well (.370 wOBA, .162 ISO since 2012) and comes at an affordable price point. The poor overall scoring environment pushes him down in our model. He sort of falls in limbo. I’d rather pay up for Walker or take a punt option. Logan Forsythe (TB) is an acceptable punt play given a premier lineup spot and a strong history against LHP (.345 wOBA, .172 ISO). I slightly prefer Gennett over Forsythe where priced similarly because of the overall scoring environment.
Ian Desmond (WAS) – Like Neil Walker, Desmond ranks well ahead of most other shortstop options in our model. Unlike Neil Walker, his lineup spot has varied considerably and can really impact his overall value. Without adjusting for lineup, we have Desmond as a Top 25 overall hitter in our model. Desmond has posted a .339 wOBA and .182 ISO against RHP. He’s getting a nice park shift in his favor and Collmenter is vulnerable to RH power (50 percent FB Rate, 1.14 HR/9 allowed to RHBs since 2012).
Alcides Escobar (KC) – Escobar isn’t much of a hitter against RHP (.287 wOBA, .084 ISO since 2012) but a leadoff spot in a potent offense carries a lot of Fantasy value. Escobar gets a park shift in his favor and Colby Lewis hasn’t dominated RHBs (.318 wOBA, 1.34 HR/9 allowed since 2012). On sites where Escobar’s priced down, he’s an acceptable value play and a way to get exposure to the Royals offense.
Jimmy Rollins (LAD) – Rollins, like Escobar, fits the mold of a value play due to a good lineup spot in a potent offense. He’s a better hitter than Escobar (Rollins owns a .319 wOBA and .155 ISO against RHP since 2012) but he’s in a far worse hitting environment. Tom Koehler has also been adequate against LHBs, allowing a .315 wOBA since 2012. I like the upside in the Royals offense a bit better than the Dodgers which is why I have Escobar ranked ahead of Rollins.
Additional shortstop notes: Jung Ho Kang (PIT) would earn strong consideration if he ended up in a good lineup spot. The projection systems think he’s a more skilled hitter than Escobar or Rollins and he’s facing a similarly weak starter. Starlin Castro (CHC) is a nice tournament play as a part of a Cubs stack or mini-stack given the conditions at Wrigley Field. If Yunel Escobar (WAS) earns a premier lineup spot, he’ll represent a fine value play on a site like DraftKings where pricing is a bit tougher. J.J. Hardy (BAL) is a fun tournament play. He comes with a poor lineup spot, but historically all of his Fantasy value is derived from power. Marco Estrada‘s high fly ball rates are a good fit for that power profile.
The third base position is condensed at the top. Kris Bryant (CHC) has an awesome hitting environment for power but draws a tough individual matchup against Jacob deGrom. Our model loves the power upside with the wind blowing out and ranks Bryant within our Top 20 overall hitters. Adrian Beltre (TEX) gets the platoon advantage in a great hitting environment against a fly ball prone LHP. Danny Duffy has limited RHBs to just a .316 wOBA and 0.83 HR/9 since 2012 but he’s also surrendered a 42 percent FB Rate and typically pitches in a much friendlier environment. Evan Longoria (TB) is also in this group with his elite history against LHP (.388 wOBA, .251 ISO) and CC Sabathia‘s propensity for allowing hard contact (1.26 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012). The overall scoring environment pushes him below the other two options even if the platoon advantage is stronger.
Mike Moustakas (KC) – Moustakas is supposed to re-join the Royals on Monday. He’s one of the easier ways to get exposure to a Royals lineup we’d like to target in Arlington against Colby Lewis. Moustakas has made huge strides this season in his contact rates (88.1 percent vs. 82.3 percent) and generally gets an elite lineup spot. He ranks very similarly to Evan Longoria in our model as the overall hitting environment overwhelms some of the difference in the skill sets. He’s not available on DraftKings, but at just $2,800 on FanDuel, he’s a very strong value play.
Additional third base notes: Conor Gillaspie (CHW) should get a lineup boost, potentially fifth, with one of LaRoche or Abreu out and has historically hit RHP pretty well (.332 wOBA, .149 ISO). Against Wily Peralta, Gillaspie is a worthy punt play. On sites with multiple position eligibility, Chris Davis (BAL) ranks ahead of all the top plays listed above. Pedro Alvarez (PIT) and Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) also rank competitively with that group. For tournaments, Manny Machado (BAL) and Josh Donaldson (TOR) are acceptable parts of stacks or mini-stacks given their premier lineup spots.
Bryce Harper (WAS) – Harper actually ranks as our third highest hitter in our model but the gap isn’t significant and he’s the player I’m most likely to pay up for in the outfield if money isn’t an issue. Harper is blossoming into the player we all expected and he’s getting a big park shift in his favor on Monday. Josh Collmenter has allowed a .325 wOBA to LHBs since 2012. He’s not as fly ball prone against LHBs (33 percent) as he is RHBs (50 percent) but he does allow a lot of hard contact (23.7 percent LD Rate). Harper has always destroyed RHP (career .381 wOBA, .227 ISO) and he’s in the middle of a high powered offense getting a nice park shift. He’s difficult to fit in given the lack of great SP value around the industry, but he’s a tremendous option if you can make it fit.
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – McCutchen ranks as the top overall hitter in our model but his early season knee issues are enough of a concern to manually push him down in our rankings. I’m more likely to consider McCutchen on sites that his price is well below the other top options as I’d like to mitigate some of my concerns with his current performance by getting a more cost effective entry point. Historically, McCutchen has hit RHP well (.391 wOBA, .203 ISO) and the park adjustments outside of PNC Park are always huge for the Pirates RH power. PNC Park deflates RH power 10-15 percent below the league average. Even neutral environments, like Philadelphia (about two percent above the league average), are a big boost to their value. Jerome Williams has been as susceptible to RHBs (.321 wOBA, 1.13 HR/9) as LHBs so the platoon advantage isn’t a huge deal in this matchup.
Alex Gordon (KC) – Gordon ranks essentially even with Eric Hosmer in our model. Gordon’s lineup spot varies and will ultimately push him behind Hosmer a bit. Gordon has posted a .347 wOBA and .158 ISO against RHP since 2012 and he gets that great matchup with Colby Lewis. The Rangers bullpen behind Lewis contains just one LH reliever, which enhances the value of the Royals LHBs.
Adam Jones (BAL) – Adam Jones just seems unusually cheap around the industry. He has a great matchup against Marco Estrada who has allowed a 45.4 percent FB Rate and 1.34 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. Jones has been solid against RHP (.349 wOBA, .204 ISO since 2012) and he adds DFS value with his emphasis on ISO over OBP and his small speed components. He’s a Top 25 hitter in our model and looks slightly discounted around the industry.
Gregory Polanco (PIT) – Polanco hasn’t destroyed RHP like we’d hope early in his career but he’s been pretty good (.325 wOBA, .126 ISO) and he adds value with his legs. He’s getting that big park boost and a favorable matchup against Jerome Williams. The price point is fair and he ranks inside our Top 25 hitters overall.
Additional outfield notes: Lorenzo Cain (KC) and Jayson Werth (WAS) are also Top 35 hitters in our model that benefit from the overall team environment despite not having the platoon advantage. I think they’re just behind Gregory Polanco in terms of our preferred value plays. There is room for a lot more value from the Orioles bats but recent lineups haven’t served it. We’d like to see Alejandro de Aza (BAL) or Steve Pearce (BAL) get a shot in premier lineup spots as they’re relatively cheap around the industry. Carlos Gomez (MIL), Ryan Braun (MIL), and Jose Bautista (TOR) are the other “top” options worth considering. They are all ranked within our Top 15 hitters but with price discounts on Gordon and Jones, they end up as more secondary options or better tournament plays. On DraftKings, where pricing is tighter, there are some potential punt plays like John Mayberry Jr. (NYM), Joey Butler (TB), and Billy Burns (OAK) that can open up some salary relief. I like them in that order.
Rankings (price not considered):
1a) Max Scherzer (WAS)
1b) Gerrit Cole (PIT)
1c) Zack Greinke (LAD)
4) Jon Lester (CHC)
5) Jacob deGrom (NYM)
6) CC Sabathia (NYY)
7) Scott Kazmir (OAK)
8) Jeff Samardzija (CHW)
9) Shelby Miller (ATL)
10) Rick Porcello (BOS)
Max Scherzer (WAS) – Scherzer has the best skill set of the elite starters pitching on Monday. He gets a downgrade in park environment in Arizona, but his strikeout projection keeps him atop our rankings. On most sites, Scherzer is priced aggressively above the next two starters in our top tier. This makes him mostly an unnecessary buy in cash games and a better tournament play.
Zack Greinke (LAD) – Greinke is the lone top tier option that has the benefit of pitching at home. As a result, he’s the largest favorite on the slate at -235 in a game with a total of just seven. The Marlins rank 24th in wOBA against RHP and they possess a lineup that features just two LHBs (Yelich and Gordon) with a maximum of four LHBs (Bour and Ichiro). Since 2012, Greinke has limited RHBs to a .274 wOBA while striking out 23.6 percent of RHBs faced. Meanwhile, LHBs have posted a .300 wOBA against Greinke and he’s managed a 22.3 percent K Rate. Greinke doesn’t rank as highly as Scherzer or Cole in our model due to a lower projected K Rate, but he’s the best bet for run prevention and win probability.
Gerrit Cole (PIT) – Cole is priced differently than the other aces as sites haven’t adjusted for his growth as a pitcher. Cole has improved his K Rate (26.9 percent, career 23.4 percent) and GB Rate (59.6 percent, career 50.4 percent) while maintaining his strong BB Rate (6.9 percent, career 6.6 percent). He gets a park downgrade as Philadelphia plays as a slightly above average offensive park and PNC Park is an elite pitching environment, but the overall matchup is still favorable. The Phillies rank 30th in wRC+ against RHP and are posting a league worst .582 OPS against RHP. Although we project the lineup as below average for strikeouts, they currently rank 14th in K Rate against RHP. The big price gap between Cole and Scherzer/Greinke makes him a very strong value play and likely the top target in cash games.
Additional starting pitcher notes: Jon Lester (CHC) and Jacob deGrom (NYM) represent the next tier of starting pitchers but they’re met with a difficult park environment on Monday. The wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field and the odds makers have posted a total of nine. Both pitchers have strikeout upside, especially deGrom against the Cubs (25.9 percent K Rate against RHP), but the scoring environment presents risk. Jacob deGrom has the friendlier price point and the bigger pure upside due to the Cubs propensity for strikeouts. I think he’s an excellent tournament play, but loses some cash game appeal with the elevated scoring environment. Lester is a more expensive version with a bit less upside. The Mets aren’t a good offense against LHP (20th in wRC+ against LHP) but they don’t strike out quite as often (20.6 percent K Rate). The third tier of starting pitching falls off significantly in skill and predictability. Jeff Samardzija (CHW) has historically been the best pitcher in this tier but his K Rate has fallen off substantially early in the season and his LD Rate allowed is up significantly as well. The Brewers aren’t an elite offense but the park environment is a challenge and Samardzija hasn’t looked right early in the season. Scott Kazmir (OAK) is the most projectable asset in the tier and gets a good pitching environment but faces a Boston offense that projects well above average against LHP. CC Sabathia (NYY) held 91 mph in his last start which was a big change from his velocity early this season and last season. He gets an elite pitching environment but the Rays offense is pretty solid against LHP (ninth in wRC+) and will load up with RHBs which lowers Sabathia’s K Rate upside (18.2 percent K Rate vs. RHBs). Rick Porcello (BOS) has pitched well this season and gets a big park shift in his favor but the Athletics rank third in wRC+ against RHP and have posted the sixth lowest K Rate against RHP. Even if Porcello pitches well, it’s unlikely the K Rate growth he’s demonstrated early in the season holds in this matchup. Shelby Miller (ATL) is overpriced based on his early season performance (1.66 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.71 xFIP). He’s benefitted from an extremely low BABIP (.206) and he’s facing a really negative park shift as Cincinnati ranks in the Top Five offensive environments in baseball. Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL) falls just outside the Top 10. He’s posted a compelling combination of elevated GB Rate (62.3 percent) and solid K Rate (22.3 percent) that the upside for a monstrous start is there. The matchup with the Blue Jays is very difficult but he’ll at least have the platoon advantage throughout most of the lineup. He’s worthy of tournament consideration on multiple SP sites. In general, I’d try to keep my cash game exposure to the top tier of starters. I think there is some tournament appeal in the second and third tiers. If you’re forced, for salary relief purposes, to dip down outside the first tier I’d look to deGrom or Sabathia as potential secondary values.
Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:
This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (email@example.com) if you have suggestions.
Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:
1) Kansas City Royals
2) Pittsburgh Pirates
3) Washington Nationals
4) Baltimore Orioles
For cash game purposes, these four offenses stand out. Washington, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City all get big park shifts in their favor against below average starters. The Orioles are at home in their elite hitting environment and going up against a fly ball and homer prone Marco Estrada. Each of these offenses have some underpriced options that have been covered in the content and are suited to mini-stacks in cash games.
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2) Toronto Blue Jays
3) Chicago Cubs
4) Chicago White Sox
The Dodgers are an elite offense against RHP but are shifting back to their home park after a week in elite offensive environments (MIL, COL). As a result, they’re priced up around the industry and a bit less viable for cash games. They rank first in wRC+ against RHP with a league high .235 ISO and are facing a below average RHP with a below average bullpen behind him.
Ubaldo is a mystery to pick on. When he’s on, the combination of elite GB skills and K potential can stymy offenses. When he’s off, the walks pile up and the game gets in the bullpen early. He’s a perfect starter to stack against in tournaments, but shy away from attacking in cash games. The Blue Jays offense generally carries elevated price tags, so they’re better suited for tournaments than cash games anyway.
The Cubs are a classic tournament option to attack. They strike out a ton but when their lineup has big power upside and they’ve run a ton early in the season (tied for third with 29 SB). We like to target big “event” teams (SB and HR) in favorable park environments. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley, they’ll represent a popular tournament stack. The Mets are an interesting stack in the same game, but I think they’re much harder to execute in a tournament if they don’t start Lucas Duda. Knowing a middle of the order hitter is going to enter mid game really makes stacking a challenge.
The White Sox are easier to stack in National League parks because you’re not forced to choose between LaRoche or Abreu as a middle of the order bat. They lose the overall depth of the lineup but it pushes cheaper options into premium spots and helps capture the entirety of the lineup. Wily Peralta doesn’t miss many bats and is vulnerable to LH power. The White Sox lineup isn’t a perfect fit to attack but they come at reasonable price points and Milwaukee is an elite hitting environment.
MLB Game Weather Forecasts
In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game. On the scales used below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 should not impact the game at all.
ATL at CIN 7:00: A few showers or thunderstorms around. I really do not see this game as a huge problem. There is a 10-20% chance of a delay at any time, <10% chance of a cancellation. Temps in the low to mid 70s falling into the mid to upper 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind southwest 10-20 mph becoming 6-12 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5. UPDATE: A little more worried about Cincinnati. Not to get too detailed, but more sun occurred this morning and it is very warm and humid there adding fuel for the showers and thunderstorms. Thus, I would be more worried about thunderstorms around the start of the game possibly lasting until 8-9 PM. Afterwards they should be OK but I can see increased risk of a delay to start of the game or in the early innings. In either case, the rain eventually clears and they should be able to play the game.
TOR at BLT 7:05: A 20% chance of a shower. I do not see any problems with this game. Temps in the mid-70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7 or 8. Wind south-southeast 5-10 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.
PIT at PHL 7:05: a 10-20% chance of a scattered shower that will not be a problem. Temps in the mid-70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7 or 8. Wind south 6-12 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.
NYY at TB: Dome.
CHW at MIL 7:20: Retractable roof. Close call about the roof today, there will be some rain around into the afternoon but game time should be dry. Maybe it will be too cool for the roof to be open? Temps in the low 60s falling into the mid-50s. If the roof is open, air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph which blow out to left if the roof is open. The wind is a 7.
KC at TEX 8:05: Dry. Temps in the upper 60s falling into the mid-60s. Air density is a 6. Wind east-northeast 7-14 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 4.
NYM at CHC 8:05: Dry. Temps in the lower 60s falling into the mid-50s. Air density is a 5. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7.
WSH at AZ 9:40: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the lower 90s falling into the mid-80s. Air density is a 9 becoming an 8 if the roof is open. Wind light and variable. The wind is a 5.
BOS at OAK 10:05: Dry. Temps in the low 60s falling into the mid-50s. Air density is a 5 (drier than it is in TEX). Wind west 10-20 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7.
MIA at LAD 10:10: dry. Temps in the upper 60s falling into the lower 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 7-14 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.