FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
May 14 MLB DFS: Cleveland Rocks
dinkpiece
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Welcome to May 14 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Podcast and cliff notes for May 14 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

premium_access_now  CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS  |  HITTER SPLITS  | PITCHER SPLITS  |  SORTABLE STATS  |  PITCHER TRENDS  |  LINEUPS  |  LEADERS

May 14 MLB DFS Position Timestamps

00:43 Starting Pitcher
12:51 Catcher
15:13 First Base
17:53 Second Base
20:11 Third Base
22:35 Shortstop
24:54 Outfield
29:18 Stacks

1x

Make sure to check out our new Slack Chat

CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

Want to help fight blood cancer and compete for World Series tickets? Learn about the mission of DKMS and compete nightly for World Series tickets this MLB season on FantasyDraft. All for FREE. Sponsored by FNTSY and DKMS, learn about their mission and access the daily contests at dailyroto.com/dkms.

Range of Outcome Projections

May 14 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) tops the starting pitcher projections and by a relatively wide margin despite the presence of both Lance McCullers (HOU) and Patrick Corbin (ARI) on the slate who have pitched like aces this year. Carrasco has the best matchup of the group against a Tigers’ offense that is really depleted without Miguel Cabrera, Leonys Martin, along with Jeimer Candelario and Nick Castellanos both banged up and missing time of late. Carrasco is the biggest favorite on the slate (-208) with one of the lowest implied totals on the slate (3.5 runs). We view Carrasco as the clear top play on the slate and the starting point in cash games.

McCullers and Corbin both have more red flags with their profiles. McCullers is with the matchup as the Angels rank second in wRC+ against RHP this season, ahead of the Yankees and trailing only the Red Sox. The Angels’ lineup is also filled with righties and McCullers has been far more dominant against lefties (.266 wOBA, .086 ISO, 28.3 K Rate against LHBs since start of last season) than righties (.328 wOBA, .143 ISO, 23.6 K Rate). The Angels also don’t strike out often as they have the third lowest K Rate against RHP (19.2 percent). We typically enjoy McCullers upside because his combination of GB Rate and K Rate brings insane upside but this matchup mutes most of it. On DraftKings, he earns MME consideration because of the size of the slate and the lack of depth on top tier SP along with a decent price tag but he doesn’t represent a core GPP target for us.

Corbin’s red flags are even more severe as the velocity has dropped aggressively the last two starts. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs covered it in more and better detail than we will here, so read up if you want more details. We’ve pulled some of Corbin’s baselines back as a result of the lost velocity but Vegas remains optimistic on Corbin with just a 3.6 implied total against. The Brewers have struggled with lefties this season ranking 29th in wRC+ but they haven’t struck out much (sixth lowest K Rate – 20.7 percent) and we view them as an average offense against LHP. With Corbin priced aggressively, we’re encouraging a full fade position.

There is some value available on this slate to offset the strong price on Carrasco on DraftKings. The most notable is Tyler Anderson (COL) who carries what looks like an aggressive projection at first glance as he ranks in the same tier as McCullers, Corbin, and Porcello. Anderson gets the benefit of a monstrous park upgrade getting out of Coors Field and he gets to face a Padres’ offense without Wil Myers that projects as awful. They rank 21st in wRC+ against LHP with the sixth highest K Rate and Myers projects firmly as their top hitter against LHP. Anderson has quietly bumped his K Rate up again this season (24.8 percent, career 22 percent) and it’s consistent with some of the higher level strikeout rate success he had in the minors. He’s generated a 13.6 swinging strike rate which is tied with Masahiro Tanaka for the 14th best in all of baseball and it’s slightly ahead of Lance McCullers ranking third on this slate.  Vegas seems to believe in Anderson as well giving him a 3.5-3.6 implied total against as a slight road underdog.

Beyond Anderson, there are a few other cheap options to consider. We prefer them in GPPs, but in a pinch you could see the salary relief as viable in cash games as well. Junior Guerra (MIL) and Chris Stratton (SF) are both hovering around $6,000. Guerra has good strikeout stuff but comes with a higher implied total (4.4) against than you’d typically seek out. We view Arizona as a park upgrade for Guerra and the Diamondbacks lineup has really lost some punch against RHP without Jake Lamb. They rank 25th on the sason in wRC+ against RHP with an elevated 25.4 K Rate (fifth highest).  Stratton also faces a similar opponent as the Reds rank 24th in wRC+ against RHP and are getting a huge park downgrade. Stratton has a bit more run prevention thanks to the environment and it’s noted in the 3.7 implied total against while Guerra has a bit more K upside.

On the periphery of the tournament conversation are Joey Lucchesi (SD) who has pitched incredibly well early in the season and gets a Rockies’ offense that is getting a huge park downgrade and ranks 22nd in wRC+ against LHP. The concern for Lucchesi is he doesn’t work deep into games because he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher and his price tag is a mild nuisance (low $8,000s) AND we think there’s a decent chance he’s owned as a home favorite in a low total game.

On the deeper side of the GPP pool is Andrew Heaney (LAA) who will come with almost no ownership against an elite Astros’ offense but 1) gets them at home and 2) could face them without George Springer and a scuffling Jose Altuve. He’s dirt cheap and viable in MME.

Catcher

Salvador Perez (KC) represents the top projected scorer at the catcher position. Perez will have the platoon edge, and in that split he’s generated a .228 ISO since 2016. He’s viable in all formats despite carrying an appropriate price tag on DK.

Perez has a slim lead in projection over Buster Posey (SF) and Mitch Garver (MIN). Posey has been hitting the ball better of late (25.7% HHR over the L15), but he’s priced accurately for a home game. From a cash game perspective, we prefer Garver who we’ve projected to hit fifth for the Twins vs. LHP. Garver doesn’t profile quite as well at the plate as Posey and Perez but his price tags are tamer around the industry. He’s in play on both sites.

Wilson Ramos (TB) and Mike Zunino (SEA) are also priced appropriately but they carry more power upside than Posey and Garver. We like them in tournaments as one offs or as part of stacks.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) and Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) carry the top projections at first base. Encarnacion is the top value at the position on FD where his price tag is a touch cheaper. We’re fans of his matchup against Mike Fiers, who’s allowed plenty of power to RHBs (.207 ISO) since 2016. Goldy has been a bit cold and has been swinging and missing more this season, but his HHR of late isn’t terrible (28% over the L15). Goldy remains a viable tournament target while Encarnacion is viable across all formats.

If you’re unable to fit Encarnacion in cash games, Yonder Alonso (CLE), C.J. Cron (TB) (on DK) and Matt Olson (OAK) (on FD) are very similar per dollar values that carry power upside. Alonso and Olson are particularly valuable on FD where they’re priced below $3k. Cron is just $3,600 DK and has generated a .210 ISO vs. LHP since 2016. Olson has the biggest ISO baseline of this group with the platoon edge but he’s facing a bit tougher of a matchup (Rick Porcello) in Fenway Park (much better for RHBs than LHBs).

Brandon Belt (SF) has a sub $4k price tag on DK and will have the platoon edge but has to deal with a difficult hitting environment (AT&T Park). He’s a secondary target tonight. At a similar price tag on that site, we prefer Hanley Ramirez (BOS), who gets the benefit of the Green Monster and will have the platoon edge. Hanley belongs in the cash game and tournament conversation in this slate as the third highest projected scorer at 1B.

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) is by far the top projected scorer at second base. Dozier will have the platoon edge tonight, and in this split we have baselines of .355 wOBA and .224 ISO. His matchup against Wade LeBlanc is favorable, as the latter has allowed a .202 ISO to RHBs since 2016. With middling price tags around the industry, we think Dozier is a piece to build around in the middle infield.

The next best values at the position are site dependent options like Eduardo Nunez (BOS) (on DK) and Whit Merrifield (KC) (on FD) and they’re just breakeven values. Nunez is going to be valuable on DK where he’s SS eligible but Merrifield is just $200 cheaper than Dozier on FD. He does carry event upside, but we’re not interested in cash games. We prefer him in tournaments where he’s more valuable as a pivot off a chalkier option.

Jose Altuve (HOU) also belongs in the tournament conversation despite his struggles of late. He’ll have the platoon edge against a fly ball pitcher (Andrew Heaney) on the road. Jason Kipnis (CLE) is viable as part of Cleveland stacks in tournaments.

Third Base

Jose Ramirez (CLE) represents the top projected scorer in the hot corner. Ramirez will have the platoon edge against Mike Fiers, who’s allowed a .192 ISO to LHBs since 2016. Ramirez is a switch hitter, so he’ll have the platoon edge even when the game into the below average Tigers’ bullpen. He’s pricey but there’s not much else that we like at the position and it’s not overly difficult to fit him on both sites.

If you need some salary relief, Kyle Seager (SEA) projects as the next best value at the position with average price tags. Seager will also have the platoon edge albeit in a difficult hitting environment for LHBs (Minnesota). Seager is a candidate to move up in the lineup (likely cleanup) with Robinson Cano landing on the DL.

Matt Duffy (TB) has been hitting third vs. LHP for the Rays of late and he’s just $3,200 on DK. Given how tight the position is priced, he’s a fine source of salary relief should you need it. Cheslor Cuthbert (KC) is sub $3k on DK and has been hitting fifth vs. LHP throughout the season. He’s not a good offensive player but the price tag and context keeps him in play on that site.

Matt Chapman (OAK) is interesting in tournaments as a cheaper target. He’s in Fenway Park tonight, which is a massive upgrade in hitting environment over his home park. The matchup isn’t great but we’re fans of his power.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor (CLE) carries the top projection at the shortstop position. Lindor is very pricey on both sites and projects as a breakeven value. We like his upside but it’ll be a challenge to fit him in this slate unless you’re willing to sacrifice a better value at another position.

There’s some value in the mid-tier with Jean Segura (SEA), who’s hitting second for the Mariners nowadays. Segura doesn’t project to hit for much power once again but ZiPS is calling for ~20 stolen bases ROS. It’s not like Segura is a bargain of a value – he’s mostly just a breakeven value on both sites, but there’s not much else to like at the position since it’s priced very appropriately.

Eduardo Nunez (BOS) is cheaper than Segura on DK where he’s just $3,200. Nunez will have the platoon edge in Fenway Park and hits sixth vs. LHP. He’s part of a Red Sox offense that has an IRT approaching five runs.

In tournaments, pricier shortstops like Carlos Correa (HOU), Xander Bogaerts (BOS) and Eduardo Escobar (MIN) are in play.

Outfield

Mookie Betts (BOS) represents the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. Betts has been destroying the ball all season (35% HHR) and will have the platoon edge at home. The only challenge as far as fitting him into cash game lineups is a very appropriate price tag. You could probably stretch to him on DK, but it’s likely easier to pivot to his teammate, J.D. Martinez (BOS). Martinez is $800 cheaper and has been an excellent hitter vs. LHP (.434 wOBA, .311 ISO since 2016).

Nelson Cruz (SEA) is up next in projection after Betts and he’s significantly cheaper on both sites. He’s $4,200 on DK and $3,600 on FD, which are middling price tags for the slugger. He’ll have a matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who’s allowed a .213 ISO to RHBs since 2016 and has been even more fly ball prone than usual this season (53.9% FB rate). Cruz projects as an outfielder to build around in this slate.

Matt Joyce (OAK), Michael Brantley (CLE) (on DK), Carlos Gomez (TB) (on FD) and Robbie Grossman (MIN) (minimum priced on FD) represent the best compliments in cash games to the options above as the next best values at the position. Gregor Blanco and Andrew McCutchen (SF) are also a part of this conversation on DK where they’re cheap. Blanco has been leading off vs. RHP and has some upside with his legs.

Mitch Haniger (SEA) and Jorge Soler (KC) belong in the group above in terms of projection but the price tags you’re paying for these two are more appropriate. We love both in tournaments as mid-tier options with favorable contexts. Haniger is generating more loft this season (45% FB rate) and is hitting the ball harder (43% HHR according to fangraphs). That combination has helped him generate big power numbers thus far this season (10 home runs, .294 ISO) and we believe he’s a strong candidate to move up in the lineup with Cano landing on the DL. Soler is hitting more ground balls than fly balls this season but has made improvements in plate discipline and contact (39% HHR according to fangraphs). Ryan Braun (MIL) is another name to keep in mind in tournaments given his strong history of production vs. LHP. Braun is facing Patrick Corbin, whose fastball velocity has come down to 89-90 MPH over his last two starts.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is far and away the best projected offense on the slate and they’re also leading the slate in average hard hit rate over the last 15 days. They’re on the road and guaranteed a ninth inning and facing a truly awful Tigers bullpen that should have to cover plenty of innings because Mike Fiers has averaged  a little over five innings a start with his 5+ FIP. Cleveland’s price tags may keep ownership very modestly in check on the stack as a whole on DraftKings (less of an issue on FanDuel) but we expect they’ll be popular and with good reason.

Tier Two

2) Boston Red Sox

Boston seems like the correct contrarian stack on the slate given how well Sean Manaea‘s results have been early in the season and the fact the Red Sox have struggled so mightily against LHP (28th in wRC+ this season) despite projecting as one of the better offenses against LHP in the league. Both Boston’s current year-to-date production and Manaea’s will likely keep ownership in check. Vegas isn’t buying as the Red Sox are projected for nearly the same implied total as Cleveland despite not guaranteed a ninth inning or facing Mike Fiers.

Tier Three

3) Seattle Mariners

The loss of Robinson Cano is a big one for Seattle to overcome as any of their likely replacements are a huge drop off in value but this should shift more of their RH power into key lineups spots which is a plus for this matchup against Jake Odorizzi.

Tier Four

4) Minnesota Twins

Minnesota is really cheap on both sites which makes them conducive to stack with upper end pitching. They also fill a lot of middle of the diamond positions and leave OF spots open which makes for a nice contrarian pairing with Boston in GPPs.

Tier Five

5) Oakland Athletics
6) Arizona Diamondbacks
7) San Francisco Giants
8) Tampa Bay Rays
9) Kansas City Royals
10) Houston Astros

This tier is really depressed in our stack rankings and hold scores that we wouldn’t usually recommend picking on. Oakland has big power and is in a big park upgrade but Porcello and the Red Sox pen aren’t an ideal matchup. They’ll represent a viable contrarian target given the slate. The Giants are the opposite of their Bay Area brethren as they don’t come with much pop but face one of the weakest starters on the slate backed up by a bad bullpen. The Astros are the most talented offense on the slate but we view Heaney as an above average starter and the lineup has been hurt by the absence of George Springer of late along with Altuve scuffling a bit. They’re always in play with low ownership and if they can get to Heaney, the Angels bullpen behind him is week. It’s just a matter of where ownership comes in for us as they’re not projecting well at all. Around 10 percent or more and they’re a better fade, sub- five percent and we’re interested.

We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution. 

HAVING TROUBLE?









We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution. 

We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution. 

HAVING TROUBLE?









We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution.