Daily Fantasy Rundown – May 17th MLB DFS
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: There aren’t any spots with substantial weather concerns but a bunch of spots with some concern: SF-CIN, LAA-BAL, TB-MIN, PIT-CHC, CLE-TEX, DET-STL.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
NOTE: Sundays are often a tough day due to players resting and difficulty knowing all the lineups by initial roster lock. When you throw in multiple weather concerns on top of that, it’s a good idea to play a reduced portion of your bankroll today and perhaps focus more on tournaments rather than cash games.
Top Play: Buster Posey (SF) (faces an average RHP but lineup spot and massive park shift make him the top catcher and position scarcity boosts his value in cash games as well)
Evan Gattis (HOU) – Gattis is the catcher I’m targeting most in cash games. Since he DHs and hits fourth, he’s one catcher we don’t have to worry much about resting on Sunday. The home matchup against Buehrle is phenomenal. The powerful Gattis (career .230 ISO) has a .346 wOBA and .243 ISO against southpaws. Meanwhile Mark Buehrle has allowed a .331 wOBA to RHBs since 2012 (second highest among SPs in action today with at least 200 RHBs faced). Perhaps most importantly, Buehrle has been a bit of a mess this season. He’s barely missing any bats (4.15 K/9) and that’s not surprising given his low SwStr rate (4.7 percent) and reduced velocity (averaging 82.9 mph). Also not surprising given the reduced velocity has been an increase in hard hit contact. FanGraphs has Buehrle’s LD rate allowed at 27.6 percent (career high) and hard hit percentage at 34.2 percent (also a career high).
Additional catcher notes: It’s difficult to identify the cheaper values on Sunday’s since so many catchers rest leaving the position even scarcer (in terms of both talent and guys with desirable lineup spots) than usual. Some guys to keep an eye on are Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (great team matchup against Kyle Kendrick, should play after resting last night, cash game viable on FanDuel if lineup spot is good), Salvador Perez (KC) (tournament option; good historical splits against LHP and Chris Capuano makes his season debut at the MLB level) and Yadier Molina (STL) (tournament option simply due to low price tag). I’d give the edge to Carlos Santana (CLE) over Buster Posey where he’s still catcher eligible.