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5/17 MLB DFS: Target Astronomical upside Sunday

5/17 MLB DFS: Target Astronomical upside Sunday
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – May 17th MLB DFS

Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Glossary: See a term you’re unfamiliar with? Check out our glossary page. If there’s something you’d like to see added there, please email us at help@dailyroto.com.

Weather: There aren’t any spots with substantial weather concerns but a bunch of spots with some concern: SF-CIN, LAA-BAL, TB-MIN, PIT-CHC, CLE-TEX, DET-STL.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

NOTE: Sundays are often a tough day due to players resting and difficulty knowing all the lineups by initial roster lock. When you throw in multiple weather concerns on top of that, it’s a good idea to play a reduced portion of your bankroll today and perhaps focus more on tournaments rather than cash games.

Catcher

Top Play: Buster Posey (SF) (faces an average RHP but lineup spot and massive park shift make him the top catcher and position scarcity boosts his value in cash games as well)

Value Play:

Evan Gattis (HOU) – Gattis is the catcher I’m targeting most in cash games. Since he DHs and hits fourth, he’s one catcher we don’t have to worry much about resting on Sunday. The home matchup against Buehrle is phenomenal. The powerful Gattis (career .230 ISO) has a .346 wOBA and .243 ISO against southpaws. Meanwhile Mark Buehrle has allowed a .331 wOBA to RHBs since 2012 (second highest among SPs in action today with at least 200 RHBs faced). Perhaps most importantly, Buehrle has been a bit of a mess this season. He’s barely missing any bats (4.15 K/9) and that’s not surprising given his low SwStr rate (4.7 percent) and reduced velocity (averaging 82.9 mph). Also not surprising given the reduced velocity has been an increase in hard hit contact. FanGraphs has Buehrle’s LD rate allowed at 27.6 percent (career high) and hard hit percentage at 34.2 percent (also a career high).

Additional catcher notes: It’s difficult to identify the cheaper values on Sunday’s since so many catchers rest leaving the position even scarcer (in terms of both talent and guys with desirable lineup spots) than usual. Some guys to keep an eye on are Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (great team matchup against Kyle Kendrick, should play after resting last night, cash game viable on FanDuel if lineup spot is good), Salvador Perez (KC) (tournament option; good historical splits against LHP and Chris Capuano makes his season debut at the MLB level) and Yadier Molina (STL) (tournament option simply due to low price tag). I’d give the edge to Carlos Santana (CLE) over Buster Posey where he’s still catcher eligible.

First Base

Top Play:

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) – Goldschmidt ranks as the second overall hitter in our model, top first baseman and top first base value. The Diamondbacks in general should be targeted today as opposing pitcher Sean O’Sullivan is bad. He has a career 5.86 ERA and 1.60 HR/9 over 247.1 IP and both ZiPS and Steamer projection systems expect those issues to continue for the most part. Goldschmidt doesn’t have the platoon edge but he still possesses a rare HR/SB combination for a first baseman and a great overall skill set that will allow him to take advantage of a subpar starting pitcher. He currently has career bests in EYE, LD rate and FB rate that have led to him posting even gaudier numbers than he’s used to (.463 wOBA, .318 ISO). Squeeze him into cash games if offensive punts at other positions allow you to do so, but at the very least get some tournament exposure to Goldschmidt.

Value Plays:

Joey Votto (CIN) – Opposing pitcher Chris Heston has been very good for the Giants. While we don’t want to pick on him too much as a result, he’s also not someone we’re going to be completely scared by (projected ERAs 3.50-plus ROS, averages 89.4 mph on his fastball), particularly given the massive negative park shift he faces. Meanwhile, Joey Votto is one of the game’s best hitters playing in the day’s best hitting environment. All signs indicate he’s back to full health as the ISO is up to .203, his BB rate is in line with career marks and he continues to make some of the most consistent hard contact in the game (27.7 LD rate, 3.7 IFFB rate). At a favorable price (particularly on FanDuel) Votto can be played in cash game formats on all sites and is a great alternative if you are unable to afford Goldschmidt. He ranks just inside our top five overall hitters on the day.

Jose Abreu (CHW) – On most sites I’d find myself siding with Votto over Abreu at similar price points (primarily due to ballpark), but Abreu is a good “price play”. The matchup is just okay, probably even a little bit below average (in Oakland, has the platoon edge but we’re high on Scott Kazmir in general). Still, Abreu can do damage against any southpaw (182 wRC+, .286 ISO) and his overall skill set gives him plenty of upside against an Oakland bullpen that has struggled mightily. He’s just the 10th most expensive first baseman on FanDuel and 16th most expensive on DraftKings.

Additional first base notes: With Votto and Abreu affordable on most sites, it’s tough to pass on that upside in any format. If you do need a bit more cap relief in cash games, look the way of Lucas Duda (RHP) (not a great park but sticks out as a good splits play as a result of his numbers versus RHP and Wily Peralta‘s versus LHB), Albert Pujols (LAA) (pretty affordable given the huge park shift in his favor and a matchup against Mike Wright making his MLB debut) and Brandon Belt (SF) (what wonders Great American Ballpark can do as Belt has homered in two straight after not homering at all; he’ll have the platoon edge against Anthony DeSclafani, whose 4.56 xFIP indicates he’s been pitching over his head). Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) is too expensive for me in cash games but is an elite tournament option. Kyle Kendrick has been putrid and the Dodgers have a team total approaching five. Some cheaper secondary values/tournament options include Matt Adams (STL), Nick Swisher (CLE) and Mike Napoli (BOS).

Second Base

Top Play:

Jose Altuve (HOU) – This pick really shouldn’t come as a surprise. Not only does Altuve have great splits against LHP (.390 wOBA), but he’s added some patience (8.4 BB rate) and pop (.159 ISO) to his game. He’s already elite at making contact (last year K rate reduced from 12.7 to 7.5, at 9.0 this season). Throw in my distaste for Mark Buehrle, Altuve’s home park and his ever-present stolen base upside and he’s the logical top option. He can be used in all formats but in my first crack at building rosters I found it difficult to fit him into cash games.

Next in line:

Jason Kipnis (CLE) – On most sites, Kipnis is priced out in cash games but he’s a great guy to get exposure to in tournaments. After a down 2014 season, Kipnis appears to be healthy and back on top his game. There are two things that stick out. First, his .170 ISO indicates his power has returned. He put up a wretched .090 mark in that category last year. That’s a good sign for the bounce back but the second thing that sticks out indicates Kipnis could be more than just bouncing back. After striking out 18.4 percent of the time for his career, he has just an 11.5 K percentage through 165 PAs. He’s not sacrificing contact to put the ball in play more as his LD rate is an elite 28.7 percent. At the very least, you’ll want exposure to the Cleveland offense. They get a massive park shift playing in Texas and face a very underwhelming RHP in Nick Martinez. While Martinez isn’t as bad as he was last season and has made some improvements, he ultimately still can’t miss bats and has a 4.79 xFIP despite the improvements.

Value Plays:

Robinson Cano (SEA) – Cano really frustrates me as a DFS player (plate discipline numbers are worrisome to begin the year and continues to be a ground ball machine) but he still makes hard enough overall contact (24.6 LD rate) and performs well enough against RHP to be considered. His price has come down due to his pedestrian results, putting him in a good spot value wise today. Opposing pitcher Steven Wright is making the spot start for Boston and has a ZiPS projected .355 wOBA and .157 ISO allowed to LHBs.

Chase Utley (PHI) – If you’re not buying into Cano despite the strong matchup, saving money on Chase Utley isn’t a bad idea. Yes, Utley is another declining (particularly power wise) second baseman who we don’t want to get caught using too much, but this is more about the opposing pitcher. Utley, at a scarce position and in a good lineup spot, gives you cheap access to Josh Collmenter. Collmenter is coming off a disaster start that seemed inevitable as he’s been playing with fire all season long. Collmenter is throwing just 84.4 mph (career mark is 86.8) and yielding plenty of hard contact (28.1 LD rate). Note that the declining skill sets of the value plays makes it reasonable to try and stretch up to Altuve/Kipnis where it doesn’t cost you too much.

Additional second base notes: The Dodgers middle infielders Justin Turner/Howie Kendrick (LAD) are secondary value plays. Neither has the platoon edge but both are in great lineup spots against a bad pitcher and with a high team total. Aaron Hill (ARI) is a great tournament option if wanting to continue to pick on Sean O’Sullivan. Dustin Pedroia (BOS) doesn’t rate well in our model but at his low price point around the industry has to be considered at least a cheap tournament option when he holds the platoon edge.

Shortstop

Additional shortstop notes: Shortstop, per usual, is a matter of picking the right punt option. I think there are three clear guys to focus on in cash games. Jimmy Rollins (LAD) (Kyle Kendrick has a 7.65 ERA and 4.72 xFIP), Brad Miller (SEA) (decent pop for a SS and platoon edge against Steven Wright, whom ZiPS is not high on) and Erick Aybar (LAA) (horrible offensive skills but good park shift, always has the platoon edge and expected success for the Angels in general against a rookie pitcher without much hype) will all provide you with cap relief and a top five lineup spot. I don’t suspect Ian Kennedy‘s absurdly high HR/FB rate will last, but just in case it does, you can plug Ian Desmond (WAS) into some tournament lineups, especially if Werth is out again, leaving Desmond with a quality lineup spot. While I general force hitters with top five or six lineup spots into cash game, the shortstop position is the most likely exception and I wouldn’t mind simply punting with Jose Ramirez (CLE) (will run, lots of expected team success) if the extra bit of cap relief is important to you.

Third Base

Value Plays:

Kyle Seager (SEA) – A lot of Mariners pop as values in our model today due to Wright’s ZiPS projected splits and reduced pricing across the industry. Seager is no exception. We’ve got him pegged inside our top 30 overall hitters, yet he’s rather cheap across the board. Seager is off to a slow start this season (.303 wOBA) but his plate discipline numbers have actually taken a step forward and his batted ball distribution is virtually unchanged. Look for better production out of him moving forward.

Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE) – I’m hopeful Chisenhall receives a top five lineup spot but even out of the sixth spot he’s cash game playable with a favorable matchup on the road. As mentioned earlier, opposing pitcher Nick Martinez has made some improvements (raised F-Strike rate and GB rate), but ultimately the hard contact he’s yielding (24.1 LD rate) and inability to miss bats (12.2 career K percentage) make some rough outings in Texas imminent. He should particularly have trouble with a heavily left-handed Cleveland team as Martinez has yielded a .346 wOBA and 1.13 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012.

Yasmany Tomas (ARI) – Tomas is my least favorite of the three value play options. His plate discipline numbers have actually been fine but he’s beating the ball into the ground quite a bit (63.5 GB rate). I’m more prone to take a wait and see approach as a result but his overall ZiPS projections (.186 ISO) indicate a lot more power should be coming. He got off the hook with his first career homer last night and has an elite matchup against Sean O’Sullivan.

Additional third base notes: Two high upside options as a result of park/overall talent are Kris Bryant (CHC) and Adrian Beltre (TEX). Both are excellent for tournaments but are unnecessary in cash games due to price and unfavorable batter-pitcher matchups.

Outfield

Top Play: Mike Trout (LAA) (no brainer top play given park shift and opposing pitcher but I’d rather try and play multiple outfielders with large upside than be forced to punt a spot in order to fit Trout in; that’s my roster construction preference but Trout is the clear top hitter in our model)

Value Plays:

George Springer (HOU) – With a full slate upon us, the outfield position is flooded with upside and at a reasonable cost. The first guy I’m eyeing is George Springer. He’ll have the platoon edge against Buehrle, whose inability to miss bats mitigates Springer’s biggest weakness (career 32.1 K percentage). Any time we expect Springer to put the ball in play more than usual, the upside is massive as he has a .230 career ISO and already has swiped 10 bags in 31 games. Springer is the definition of an “event” player. He’s particularly valuable on FanDuel due to a reduced price tag and no penalty for being caught stealing.

Joc Pederson (LAD) – Pederson also fits the “event” player tag as ZiPS projects a 30/20 season if he stays healthy. Pederson, like Springer, will strike out a lot but his great patience at the plate mitigates some of the risk of a prolonged slump. Basically, Pederson strikes out because he swings hard (crazy high 42 percent hard hit rate but a 14.8 SwStr rate) not because he has bad plate discipline (chase rate in line with league average). His price is reasonable after he has cooled off and the matchup against Kyle Kendrick is great. Kendrick, who has allowed a .332 wOBA to LHBs since 2012, is having a very tough time this year. His LD rate (25 percent) and hard hit rate (39 percent) along with a low 5.7 SwStr rate and 23.9 chase rate all indicate that he’s fooling no one. Pederson and Springer are among our top six overall hitters on the day.

Brandon Moss (CLE) – We’ll go back to Moss as he’s a top 10 overall hitter in our model and also comes with the third highest home run score. He gets a big park shift playing in Texas and has absolutely dominated RHP since 2012 (137 wRC+, .265 ISO). We’ve voiced our displeasure for opposing pitcher Nick Martinez several times throughout today’s Rundown. Michael Brantley (CLE) is a better overall option than Moss but when you factor in price he moves towards being a tournament play. If David Murphy (CLE) hits cleanup again, he’d be one of the best sources of salary cap relief at the position.

AJ Pollock (ARI) – Pollock and the entire ARI outfield (Mark Trumbo/David Peralta/Ender Inciarte (ARI)) are playable today against Sean O’Sullivan. Pollock is our preferred option of the bunch due to a combination of price, lineup spot (likely second) and skills. He has a hint of power upside (likely approached 15 HRs) and will steal 20-plus over a full season. The power has regressed from last year’s break out but pretty much everything else remains in line. I prefer Springer/Pederson/Moss, but Pollock is a good alternative, especially if you want to force some exposure to the Arizona offense.

Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – While a banged up Colorado offense diminishes the value of the team as a whole, it’s allowed Carlos Gonzalez to regain a good lineup spot. He’s hit in the top 5 of the order all week long, including third yesterday. After a really poor start to the season, we’re starting to see the Gonzalez of old. His GB rate is steadily dropping towards his career mark and the LD rate is a superb 23.8 percent, with just a four percent IFFB rate. Meanwhile, the plate discipline numbers are practically in line with his career marks. We don’t like to use Gonzalez on the road too much but at a greatly reduced price, improved lineup spot and holding the platoon edge against an uncertain RHP in Mike Bolsinger, he should be considered a value if needing to drop down price wise from the high upside options above.

Jay Bruce (CIN) – Bruce hit fifth last night and we’d love to see him there again. With cold players, we have to make a determination if they are ones to avoid or buy low on. Bruce is in the latter camp. He’s elevating the ball and his hard hit rate (39.8 percent) is actually a career best. Throw in a reduced chase rate that’s showing up in an impressive 12.9 BB rate, and Bruce will turn things around with a normalized BABIP moving forward. He’s severely underpriced for a home matchup against a solid but soft tossing RHP.

Additional outfield notes: Kole Calhoun (LAA) is the best value of the Angel hitters but also comes with significant opportunity cost; he’s ranked right in line with CarGo in our model. Seth Smith (SEA) and the Giants LHBs are cheap, secondary value plays. If Billy Burns (OAK) leads off again, I have no problems punting with him where the cap room is needed. Hanley Ramirez (BOS) has seen his price drop and is particularly appealing on DraftKings (shortstop eligibility) but keep in mind we’ve seen just one extra base hit out of him since missing a few games with a hurt shoulder. Bryce Harper (WAS) is an elite tournament option. It’s a rare opportunity to get him at low ownership but people likely will balk at the high price tag in Petco Park, which isn’t as bad for left-handed power as one might think. Two other tournament options I like are Billy Hamilton (CIN) and Jason Heyward (STL).

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier 1

1) Chris Archer (TB) (weather risk)

2) Jake Arrieta (CHC) (weather risk)

Tier 2

3) Garrett Richards (LAA) (weather risk)

4) Stephen Strasburg (WAS)

5) Noah Syndergaard (NYM)

6) Scott Kazmir (OAK)

7) Lance Lynn (STL) (weather risk)

8) Carlos Carrasco (CLE) (weather risk)

9) Shelby Miller (ATL)

10) Ian Kennedy (SD)

11) AJ Burnett (PIT) (weather risk)

12) Collin McHugh (HOU)

Tier 3

13) Mike Bolsinger (LAD)

14) Jeff Samardzija (CHW)

15) James Paxton (SEA)

16) Henderson Alvarez (MIA)

17) Wily Peralta (MIL)

Top Play:

Chris Archer (TB) – Archer nearly gave me heart attack last time I wrote as I touted him as the top play only to watch him allow the first six batters to reach safely. Somehow he managed to turn in another dominant outing despite the wretched start. The two runs he allowed to the first six batters were the only ones he allowed and he struck out eight batters against just one walk while achieving a 55.6 GB rate. This was pretty impressive considering it was against a heavily left-handed Yankee squad. The matchup today is much easier against a Twins team that has been even worse against RHP than we expected coming into the season. They currently rank 26th in wRC+ against RHP and more surprisingly have struck out the third most against RHP (23.7 percent). The team will be able to roll out five LHBs but just one at the top of the order (Joe Mauer, 94 wRC+). At the bottom of the order, the LHBs include young hitters with very pessimistic projections such as Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario. It’s a nice pitcher’s park and Archer’s skills have been amazing so far this season. Through eight starts he has a 2.70 xFIP that fully supports the low 2.59 ERA. He’s sporting a career best 29.9 K percentage that is supported by a massive jump in SwStr rate, from 9.3 to 12.9. With a career best F-Strike rate (64.4) and GB rate (54.6), everything is working for Archer. He’s a very affordable top starting pitcher and as long as the weather cooperates he’s the guy I’d use to anchor cash teams.

Next in line:

Jake Arrieta (CHC) – Arrieta is a fine alternative to Archer. While I expect the Pirates to be better offensively moving forward, they currently rank just 24th in wRC+ against RHP. Meanwhile, Arrieta is doing everything he can to show that his 2014 breakout was not a fluke. His peripherals are essentially identical (2.73 xFIP in 2014, 2.74 this season). He’s listed as a -135 favorite at home, but we don’t currently have a game total set (this doesn’t get set until the day of due to the impact wind has on scoring at Wrigley). Like Archer, Arrieta is pretty affordable industry wide. He’s a viable alternative, but if choosing between the two I’d side with Archer who has been a touch more dominant and faces a worse offense.

Value Plays:

Garrett Richards (LAA) – While Richards’ 4.34 xFIP would indicate impending regression at first glance, there are a few reasons I think it should be ignored. For starters, heavy GB pitchers can see lower than average BABIPs and Richards (53.8 GB rate) is definitely a heavy GB pitcher. He’s also sustained a below average HR/FB rate for 430.1 MLB innings (8.2 percent) and his hard hit percentage this season is laughably low at 12.3 percent. Furthermore, xFIP tells us what a pitcher’s ERA should be based on the skills they displayed but it doesn’t account for potential changes in skills in the future. Look for a reduction in his BB rate (4.55 BB/9) moving forward, as he actually is sporting a career best F-Strike rate. Richards does lose some value moving from Anaheim to Baltimore, and that’s the primary reason he heads our tier two pitchers rather than joining Archer and Arrieta in tier one. Also, this matchup is a bit high risk, high reward. On top of the negative park shift, the Orioles rank fourth in wRC+ against RHP, but they also strike out a lot (23.3 percent).

Noah Syndergaard (NYM) – Both ZiPS and Steamer project Syndergaard to post a mid-three’s ERA while striking out more than a batter an inning. That will certainly play in MLB DFS, particularly at his low price points across the industry. For the more risk tolerant, Syndergaard can be used alongside one of the top two starting pitchers in cash games on multi-SP sites. In tournaments he’s a great option on both single and multi-SP sites. He’s in his favorable home park against a Brewers team that is 25th in wRC+ against RHP and has the fifth highest K rate. Vegas has Syndergaard listed as a -125 favorite in a game with a low total (7.5). If weather is an issue for the written up plays above, I’d be wiling to use Syndergaard in cash games in all formats.

Tournament play:

Ian Kennedy (SD) – Due to opportunity cost, Ian Kennedy will likely be low owned but there is meaningful upside here. Despite the 5.92 ERA, he’s shown some promise. The 18.7 K percentage is all but guaranteed to go up moving forward as it doesn’t mesh with his high 11.5 SwStr rate, higher than the 10.1 mark he posted last season to go with a 24.5 K percentage. Aside from expecting more strikeouts, we can expect some better luck on fly balls. Kennedy is currently allowing a 28.0 HR/FB rate. His career mark is 10.1 (right around league average) and Petco Park should help to mitigate the risk. With Jayson Werth dealing with a shoulder injury, this Nationals lineup is very underwhelming against RHP. Obviously Harper is a big threat, but he’ll be one of just three LHBs in the lineup and low wOBA guys such as Yunel Escobar and Ian Desmond are towards the top of the lineup.

Additional starting pitcher notes: Stephen Strasburg (WAS) has some red flags (extremely low SwStr rate, reduced usage of two-seamer, coming off a disaster start following a start cut short by injury) that make it very difficult to roster him in cash games. However, in tournaments I’d be willing to bet on the overall talent in an elite matchup (heavily right handed Padres team that will K a lot and a favorable pitching environment) and ignore the signs of a potential injury. The remaining tier two pitchers are all clustered very close together. Scott Kazmir (OAK) has upside in all formats. His K rate has taken a jump forward and he’s at home against a White Sox team that has been dreadful against LHP to begin the year (dead last in wRC+). Lance Lynn (STL) will face a good Tigers lineup, however they are heavily right handed (something that’s particularly important given Lynn’s wide splits) and Victor Martinez (health) has been dreadful hitting from the left side of the plate. Shelby Miller (ATL) looks like he is going to have a very nice bounce back year and he’s got a great matchup both in terms of opposing lineup and ballpark. My concern here is a quickly rising price tag that makes him difficult to roster in cash games over similarly priced players we have ranked higher. The pitcher I’d be most likely to use out of the third tier is Mike Bolsinger (LAD). He seems to be on a pitch count, meaning he maxes out at about six innings. However, he was tearing it up at AAA and has solid MLB numbers in 11 starts (3.40 xFIP, 7.92 K/9). He’s by far the largest favorite of the day (-220) and will face a Rockies lineup that may be severely depleted (Morneau on the DL, Tulowitzki rested last night after being pulled the prior game, Corey Dickerson left last night’s game early). If you want to completely load up on bats in a tournament, Steven Wright (BOS) is a punt option that allows you to do that.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (help@dailyroto.com) if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) Cleveland Indians

2) Houston Astros

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

4) Los Angeles Angels

The chalk stacks are all pretty straightforward given our Rundown commentary. These teams cover enough different positions and price points with their top five to six lineup spots that you’ll likely be able to cover at least half your cash game lineups solely from players on these four teams. In fact, you’re probably in trouble if that’s not the case.

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) Los Angeles Dodgers

2) San Francisco Giants

3) Philadelphia Phillies

The Dodgers aren’t exactly contrarian as they carry a high team total. However, with Adrian Gonzalez very expensive and not a lot of chalk value plays in the lineup outside of Joc Pederson, this stack could end up lower owned than expected. What’s nice about the Dodgers is you get a low owned top 10 overall hitter in Adrian Gonzalez, a top five overall hitter in Joc Pederson and then can fill the scarce positions of MI (Rollins, Kendrick, Turner, Guerrero) and C (Grandal).

The Giants didn’t get a whole lot of play in our Rundown today as their lineup is filled with secondary values. That could cause them to go overlooked, especially against a pitcher with a sparkling 2.79 ERA. However, we should be more focused on favorable pricing given the massive park shift for the Giants and an opposing pitcher whose 3.92 FIP and 4.56 xFIP suggest some impending regression.

The Phillies will go under owned because…well…they suck. Their poor offense actually works for them a bit in tournaments as you can stack them for a low cost, allowing yourself to complement them with high upside hitters and top pitchers. The Phillies are at home against Josh Collmenter who is allowing a high LD rate and seeing reduced velocity. Any time we see that combination it’s worth taking a chance on with a stack in a tournament, just think of guys like Doug Fister and Justin Masterson who fit that bill over the past week and got hit hard despite pitching in favorable environments.

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.

SF at CIN 1:10: Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Do not see a worry in terms of a cancellation (~10%). There is a bigger chance of a delay at anytime (20-30%). Temps right around 80. Air density is an 8. Wind south-southwest 7-14 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4.

MIL at NYM 1:10: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind light and variable. The wind is a 5.

ATL at MIA 1:10: Retractable roof. Temps in the mid 80s and it looks to be dry so I will assume the roof will be open. Air density is a 9. Wind east 9-18 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 3.

LAA at BLT 1:35: Occasional light rain. Does not like it will be heavy enough to cause a cancellation (~10% chance of that). Should not be heavy enough to cause a delay neither but that can not be completely ruled out (~20%). Temps near 80. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 5-10 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.

AZ at PHL 1:35: A shower or thunderstorm around. Does not seem like a big deal to me (<10% chance of a cancellation, <20% chance of a delay at anytime). Temps in the low 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind west-southwest 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

NYY at KC 2:10: Dry. Temps in the low 80s. Air density is a 7 or 8. Wind south-southwest 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is a 9.

TB at MIN 2:10: A 10-20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Like the other games already mentioned with weather issues, I do not see this game as a huge problem (<10% chance of a cancellation, 10-20% chance of a delay). Temps in the mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind south 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

TOR at HOU 2:10: Retractable roof. A 10% chance of a shower or thunderstorm so I will assume the roof will be open. Temps in the mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind south-southeast 7-14 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.

PIT at CHC 2:20: A heavy line of thunderstorm is expected to move into the city at about 2 PM eastern time. After this moves through they will be good to play. So, looks like a game where it is delayed to start but once they do they are good to play. Temps near 80. Air density is an 8. Wind south 12-25 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is an 8.

CLE at TEX 3:05: A 10-20% chance of a random shower or thunderstorm. Not a big deal. Temps in the low to mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind south 7-14 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4.

BOS at SEA 4:10: A 20-30% chance of showers so I will assume the roof will be closed.

CHW at OAK 4:05: Dry. Temps near 60. Air density is a 5. Wind west 8-16 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6 or 7.

COL at LAD 4:10: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind southwest 7-14 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is a 6.

WSH at SD 4:10: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

DET at STL 8:00: A 10% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Do not see a huge deal. Temps in the upper 70s falling into the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind south 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 7 or 8.

MLB Daily Analysis

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We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution. 

We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution. 

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We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution.