Daily Fantasy Rundown – May 22nd MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Minor issues in LA, Colorado, and KC. We don’t think they’re huge issues but something to monitor as we approach lock. Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Buster Posey (SF) – Posey gets a huge park shift in his favor going from arguably the worst offensive ballpark in all of baseball to most definitely the best. He’s facing a below average starter in Kyle Kendrick who has allowed RHBs to post a .337 wOBA and 1.22 HR/9 against him since 2012. Most of those statistics were compiled away from Coors Field so we expect Kendrick to perform even worse this season. Posey is a good hitter against RHP (.358 wOBA, .154 ISO) and he’s super human against LHP (.424 wOBA, .247 ISO since 2012). The Rockies have four lefties in their bullpen which gives Posey a decent chance at facing a LH reliever. This is basically unheard of given his elite skills against lefties but the Rockies have a hard time avoiding them. Posey’s price point is elevated around the industry, but he ranks inside our Top 15 overall hitters and is clearly the top option at the position.
Brian McCann (NYY) – McCann ranks as clearly the best catcher value across the industry in our model. He comes at a severe discount to Buster Posey but ranks inside our Top 30 overall hitters. McCann gets to face Colby Lewis who has struggled limiting LH power in recent years (.353 wOBA, 1.15 HR/9 since 2012) in a park that inflates LH home runs 17 percent above the league average. Lewis allows an alarming 44 percent fly ball rate against LHBs which is disastrous with a short porch in Yankee Stadium. McCann allows you a very modest entry point to big home run upside on Friday. He ranks inside our Top Five in home run score in our model.
Wilin Rosario (COL) – Rosario ranks well below McCann in our model (Top 55 overall) but he gets a great lineup spot (fifth of late) in the best hitting environment in all of baseball. Ryan Vogelsong is getting the biggest ballpark downgrade a pitcher can experience and he’s not posting particularly good peripherals in an elite environment (4.92 xFIP). He walks too many batters and is fly ball dependent which is a dangerous combination in Coors Field. Rosario doesn’t hit RHP very well (.307 wOBA) but he has posted a .166 ISO against RHP since 2012. The power carries the day for his ranking and the elite scoring environment earns him consideration where he maintains catcher eligibility.