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May 27 MLB DFS: Stras-Studded Slate
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Welcome to May 27 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for May 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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May 27 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:08 Starting Pitcher
13:35 Catcher
16:59 First Base
20:53 Second Base
24:42 Third Base
27:32 Shortstop
29:46 Outfield
33:01 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

May 27 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

After a Friday slate filled with elite starting pitching performances, we’re dealt a Saturday slate deep with starting pitching options once again. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) and Zack Greinke (ARI) highlight the first tier of starting pitching. Strasburg gets an elite matchup with the Padres who rank 25th in wRC+ against RHP and have the league’s second highest K Rate against RHP. This is the same matchup we attacked successfully last night with Max Scherzer and it’s worth attacking again. Strasburg isn’t the same quality of pitcher as Scherzer but he doesn’t come with the same price tag either. While the strikeouts have been down slightly for Strasburg this season, the swinging strike rate (11 percent) has been phenomenal and he’s still generating swings outside the strike zone at an above average clip. The strikeouts will come and our guess is this matchup is the start. Greinke has pitched a lot like Scherzer this season (29.9 K Rate, 4.6 BB Rate, 1.34 HR/9) and gets a Brewers’ lineup that, while volatile, is average against RHP (15th in wRC+, third highest K Rate). As a team, the Brewers have been slumping a bit with Eric Thames hard hit rate way down, Ryan Braun injured, and Travis Shaw striking out in half of his PAs over the last five games. This is a good time for Greinke to get the Brewers and if the roof is open in Milwaukee he’ll get a little help on conditions as well with a 10 mph wind blowing in. Our projections prefer Strasburg in the softer matchup as the heavier favorite (-240 vs. -145) and with the price tags similar, Strasburg is our priority. On DraftKings, it’s possible to pair these two together, but you’ll sacrifice a bit of offensive upside for the SP stability.

Danny Salazar (CLE) and Yu Darvish (TEX) represent the next mini-tier of options. Darvish isn’t available on FanDuel’s slate and he’s overpriced on DraftKings for a much tougher matchup with a healthy Blue Jays lineup. Salazar gets an elite matchup with the Royals who rank 29th in wRC+, strike out at a league average 21.7 percent clip, and (perhaps most importantly for Salazar) have the 28th best BB Rate against RHP. Salazar’s poor control and fly ball tendencies make him volatile against all opponents but the Royals lack of patience and power is a good fit.  We prefer Salazar exposure in tournaments on both sites, but the matchup has him viable as a drop-down second SP on DraftKings.

Jake Odorizzi (TB) and Marco Estrada (TOR) represent the next mini-tier which is the end of the pitchers we’d consider cash game viable on this slate. Odorizzi has the price tag ($7,600) on DraftKings that is compelling for a complimentary starter to one of the aces. Odorizzi has posted an impressive 11.8 swinging strike rate this season, but his strikeout rate has improved just marginally (22.2 K Rate, career 22). The Twins aren’t an elite matchup but they fit Odorizzi well. They rank 19th in pitch value against the change-up, Odorizzi’s signature pitch, and they tend to get LH (via a number of switch hitters) which is actually better for Odorizzi (.266 wOBA, .152 ISO vs. LHBs since 2016, .332 wOBA, .212 ISO against RHBs). If you need salary relief to build a complete offense (or stack in GPPs), Odorizzi is your best pairing with one of the aces.

On DraftKings, Adalberto Mejia (MIN) is so cheap ($4,600) and the Rays strikeout so frequently against LHP (28.6 K Rate, 20th in wRC+) that he’s an intriguing tournament target with one of the aces to facilitate expensive stacks. While we liked Junior Guerra last night at a similar price tag, we view Mejia as a worse pitcher and the slate less necessary to create salary space for offense. As a result, Mejia is an unnecessary cash game target but a viable GPP play.  

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY) is our top projected catcher in a matchup against Jharel Cotton, who’s allowed a 42% HHR to RHBs this season according to fangraphs. The upside is clearly there, but a full price tag makes Sanchez a better investment in tournaments.

We’re more likely to pay down at the position for Derek Norris (TB) or Jonathan Lucroy (TEX). Norris has the advantage in matchup (Adalberto Mejia) and his contact data looks great lately (32.3% HHR over L15). Lucroy is the better hitter and he’s in the better environment, but he’ll face a more challenging matchup against Marco Estrada.

Mike Zunino (SEA) is viable on FD for a punt price ($2.1k). He’ll have the platoon edge in Fenway Park against a below average pitcher.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI), Joey Votto (CIN) and Miguel Cabrera (DET) represent the top projected scorers at first base. Cabrera carries the cheaper price tag on both sites, and like Goldy, he’s been hitting the ball very hard lately (42.9% HHR over L15). He’ll have the platoon edge vs. Derek Holland, who’s allowed a 37.7% HHR and due for regression (2.47 ERA/4.88 xFIP). Goldy and Votto are viable alternatives in all formats.

On FD, Ryan Zimmerman (WSH) is $800 cheaper than Miggy and represents a strong alternative on that site. Zimmerman’s hard contact has been coming back down to earth this month, but he’ll have the platoon edge and the Nationals have an IRT of 4.8 runs (second highest in this slate).

Rickie Weeks Jr. (TB) is $2.9k on DK and a great source of salary relief if you can’t spend up for our top projected scorers. Weeks usually hits cleanup vs. LHP, but slipped down to seventh last night. Weeks’ value is pretty lineup spot dependent, so we’ll need confirmation of a good spot tomorrow before investing in cash games.

Jose Abreu (CWS) and Hanley Ramirez (BOS) are upside pivots to consider in tournaments. Ramirez’s price tag on FD ($3.3k) puts him in the cash game conversation as well though we’d prefer him to hit cleanup rather than fifth.

Second Base

Ian Kinsler (DET) will have the platoon edge vs. Derek Holland in a plus environment for hitters, and he’s affordable on both sites.

If you’d like cheaper targets at the position, Cesar Hernandez (PHI) and Rougned Odor (TEX) are strong per dollar alternatives. Hernandez wasn’t in the lineup last night (groin injury), but if he’s back he’ll be leading off vs. Bronson Arroyo. Odor has a more challenging matchup vs. Estrada, but he’s a much better hitter (second highest ISO baseline at the position).

Jonathan Villar (MIL) is cheap on FD, where he’s a viable leverage play in tournaments. Dee Gordon (MIA) is a little more expensive than Villar, but his speed upside in a better matchup keeps him in play in tournaments.

Third Base

Evan Longoria (TB), Jake Lamb (ARI) and Nicholas Castellanos (DET) carry the top projections at third base. Lamb is priced fully on both sites, so he’s only in play in tournaments. Longoria and Castellanos offer more salary relief on both sites, and they’ll have the platoon edge in their respective matchups. Longoria has a matchup vs. Adalberto Mejia, who’s allowed a .398 wOBA and 14.3% BB rate to RHBs this season.

Longoria and Castellanos are our preferences in cash games, but Miguel Sano (MIN), Maikel Franco (PHI) and Ryon Healy (OAK) are power upside targets to consider in tournaments. Sano has the best contact data at the position (38.2% HHR this season).

Shortstop

Trea Turner (WSH) is our top projected shortstop in this slate, but we’d rather go cheaper at the position in cash games. Turner’s event upside makes him a strong tournament target. The $3.7k price tag on FD is depressed, which puts him in the cash game conversation as well.

Tim Beckham (TB) and Freddy Galvis (PHI) are the cheap targets we’re pursuing at the position on both sites. Beckham leads off and has better hard contact data than Galvis, while Galvis is part of a Phillies offense that has an IRT of 5.1 runs vs. Bronson Arroyo (allowed eight HRs in his L3 starts). Galvis is another bat that is a bit lineup dependent as he slid down to eighth last night. We’ll have to confirm a good spot before investing on Saturday.

Xander Bogaerts (BOS), Francisco Lindor (CLE) and Jean Segura (SEA) are expensive pivots to consider in tournaments.

Outfield

Mookie Betts (BOS), Mike Trout (LAA) and Nelson Cruz (SEA) represent our top projected outfielders in this slate. Trout is the best hitter in baseball and he’s facing Vance Worley (sub 15% K rate vs. RHBs since 2015). If you wanted to pay top dollar for Trout in any format today, we couldn’t fault you but Betts and Cruz carry slightly stronger projections given their plus matchups at Fenway Park. The conditions aren’t perfect for hitters in Fenway today (wind blowing in, mid 50s temps), Cruz will have the platoon edge vs a power prone southpaw and Betts is facing a wretched Mariners’ pitching staff.

Jayson Werth (WSH) is a great point per dollar target, particularly on DK where he’s just $3.7k. Werth will have the platoon edge, which is meaningful for his projection (.400 wOBA, .284 ISO vs. LHP since 2015). Gregor Blanco (ARI) and Odubel Herrera (PHI) represent two of the best values at the position on both sites. Herrera has been struggling lately, but he was leading off last night with Hernandez out of the lineup. We’d prefer Herrera to lead off rather than hit towards the bottom of the lineup, but if he’s hitting fifth that’s acceptable given the context (facing Arroyo).

David Peralta (ARI) (on FD) and Justin Upton (DET) are mid-tier targets with power upside that are cash game viable.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Philadelphia Phillies

 

2) Detroit Tigers

3) Washington Nationals

4) Arizona Diamondbacks

5) Cincinnati Reds

6) Boston Red Sox

7) Tampa Bay Rays

It’s been some time since we had this congested of a first tier of stack options. The Phillies fit this slate extremely well. They’re cheap on a slate with elite SP and they’re the team that as of this writing currently possesses the second highest implied total (5.1 runs). They used a different lineup on Friday night than they’ve been using of late so individual values may shift around but a matchup with fly ball and homer-prone Bronson Arroyo is one to attack.

The Tigers and Rays also represent cheaper stack options on the road against weak opposing LHPs. Derek Holland has had pretty good results this season but the peripherals simply don’t support them. The 4.88 xFIP and 2.47 ERA are the first hint that something is off but when accompanied with a 37.7 hard hit rate allowed it’s clear that Holland is benefiting from unusually good fortune (.242 BABIP). The Tigers strength is in RHBs and Holland’s allowed a 42 percent hard hit rate to RHBs this season.

We’ve touched on the Nationals potency against LHP (league best 120 wRC+ and .218 ISO) but Clayton Richard has held things in check this season with an extreme GB Rate. It’s hard to project the upside against Richard but the pen behind him is worn down and vulnerable.  

The Yankees don’t rate quite as well in our stack projections, in part because most of the team has out-performed our baselines this season and Jharel Cotton has some intriguing peripherals, but Cotton is fly ball and hard contact prone. He’s getting a big park downgrade and if the Yankees roll out their “A” lineup, they’d represent a strong contrarian stack on this slate.