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5/26 MLB DFS: Get Dongaldson in your lineups

5/26 MLB DFS: Get Dongaldson in your lineups
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – May 26th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Glossary: See a term you’re unfamiliar with? Check out our glossary page. If there’s something you’d like to see added there, please email us at help@dailyroto.com.

Weather: Concerns in Chicago, Baltimore, New York, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati and in Minneapolis but none look bad enough to cause a cancellation.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

Value Plays:

Russell Martin (TOR) – You want to target all of your Blue Jays RHBs today. They are loaded with strong RHBs and face a terrible LHP in John Danks in the Rogers Centre. Danks has allowed a .352 wOBA and 1.55 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. Aside from the horrendous splits, Danks is a subpar overall pitcher. His current high ERA of 5.11 is in line with his FIP (5.28) and xFIP (4.97). Danks has been a pitcher we’ve targeted the last several years, and if anything the upside is only improving for opposing batters as Danks career 42 percent GB rate has dropped to just 33.1 in 2015. Martin is a very solid hitter versus LHP (.346 wOBA, .170 ISO since 2012) and has been hitting in a top four lineup spot for the Jays.

Evan Gattis (HOU) – The other catcher with a good lineup spot and in a high upside matchup is Evan Gattis. The powerful Gattis (.234 career ISO, 52 HRs in 950 PAs) is in a good hitter’s park in Camden Yards (11th most favorable for RH HRs) and facing the HR prone Chris Tillman. Tillman has always been susceptible to same handed batters, allowing 1.43 HR/9 to them since 2012. However, he’s taken a big step backwards overall this season. His walk rate has skyrocketed thanks to decreases in both F-Strike and SwStr rates, leaving him with expected ERAs over 5. I’ll probably split Martin and Gattis in my cash games based on pricing.

Additional catcher notes: Yan Gomes (CLE) rates well in our model but with a poor lineup spot, Wandy Rodriguez pitching well and Gomes just back from the DL, I view him mostly as a tournament option given the viability of the two written up options in cash games. Buster Posey (SF) faces a mediocre pitcher in a nice hitter’s park making him a secondary tournament play, but he’s not worth paying up for in cash games. Other tournament options include Brian McCann (NYY), Jason Castro (HOU) and Blake Swihart (BOS).

First Base

Top Play:

Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) – In the same matchup as Russell Martin, it’s no surprise that Encarnacion is our top rated first baseman. He’s actually our top rated overall hitter in our model if you discount Jose Bautista due to his shoulder injury. Encarnacion has a .397 wOBA and .268 ISO against LHP, which gives him big time upside against Danks, but his skills against RHP and overall power profile (good mixture of raw power, loft, contact rate) leave him with plenty of value even after the game gets into the bullpen.

Value Play:

David Ortiz (BOS) – While Encarnacion is our top ranked first baseman, the man who is the best cash game value is David Ortiz. He’s a significant discount to Encarnacion on most sites and ranks within our top five overall hitters. Yes, opposing pitcher Mike Pelfrey went through a bit of a hot streak, but after digging deeper it appears that was primarily due to luck (peripherals are pretty much in line with career marks, although he is generating more GBs). Pelfrey’s inability to miss bats (4.40 K/9) will likely haunt him when facing Ortiz (.409 wOBA, .277 ISO against RHP since 2012; declining a bit but peripherals are mostly in line with last few seasons).

Additional first base notes: I’ll talk more about this in the stack section, but Jose Abreu/Adam LaRoche (CHW) have a nice matchup against a struggling RA Dickey. I’d consider them secondary cash game values and elite tournament plays. Chris Davis (BAL) ranks inside our top 20 overall hitters and like the White Sox hitters can be considered in both cash and tournaments. Lucas Duda (NYM) has a very good 136 wRC+ against RHP since 2012 and will face Jerome Williams (.344 wOBA, 1.10 HR/9 allowed to LHBs over that span). Carlos Santana (CLE) is a much better hitter versus southpaws and he’ll get to face the overachieving Wandy Rodriguez whose BABIP, HR/FB rate and hard hit percentage all indicate regression is right around the corner. Consider Santana a tournament option for the most part, but he can be used in cash games where he holds catcher eligibility. Additional tournament plays are Chris Carter (HOU), Albert Pujols (LAA) and Pedro Alvarez (PIT).

Second Base

Top Play: Jose Altuve (HOU) (wouldn’t force him in in a R/R matchup but recent cold streak has his price depressed on DraftKings, and we’re high on the Astros offense in general)

Value Play:

Neil Walker (PIT) – Walker is our preferred value and the second base spot today. Walker is a strong individual value as his strong platoon splits from the left side of the plate have him ranked just outside of our top 50 overall options (Altuve is the highest ranked second baseman around 40). He’ll face rookie RHP Jose Urena who is making his MLB debut and has a ZiPS projected .369 wOBA and .157 ISO against LHBs. What makes Walker such a great play today is he gives you access to a Pirates offense that has plenty of upside against the rookie Urena, and he comes with very little opportunity cost. It’s logical to want a piece of the Pirates offense tonight and Walker is a cost effective way to do just that.

Additional second base notes: The secondary values that are alternative cash game options are Daniel Murphy (NYM) (good lineup spot and platoon edge against Jerome Wiliams), Jimmy Paredes (BAL) (will hit second for a Baltimore offense with a high team total at home) and Dustin Pedroia (BOS) (will lead off for a Red Sox offense that should get to Mike Pelfrey, who has shown some reverse splits). In tournaments, three other names to consider are Jason Kipnis (CLE) (will be underowned due to price and L/L matchup), Robinson Cano (SEA) (price has bottomed out…I think) and Steve Tolleson (TOR) (very cheap MI who can be used as part of a Blue Jays stack).

Shortstop

Top Play:

Jose Reyes (TOR) – Reyes is the chalk play today and I suggest going chalk in cash games at shortstop. Troy Tulowitzki is ice cold (horrible plate discipline numbers are worrisome) and still expensive and no other shortstops stick out as having a series of contextual factors in their favor (having some semblance of skill/upside, good lineup spot, poor opposing pitcher, good hitter’s park). Reyes has all of those contextual factors in his favor and the cherry on top is his very affordable price tag across the industry that has yet to rise with him just recently coming off of the DL.

Value Play:

Brad Miller (SEA) – If you really need to save money here, Miller is the other shortstop to consider for cash games. He’ll hit in a good lineup spot (second), has more power upside than most shortstops (.200 ISO currently, career .178 ISO against RHP) and has at least a mediocre matchup. In a very limited sample size Alex Colome has yielded a lot of hard hit contact to LHBs (26.6 LD rate) and projections systems have him pegged for a 4-plus ROS ERA. In general, you don’t want much exposure to this game in cash formats, but if you’re going to do so it should be with Miller as a very cheap shortstop option.

Additional shortstop notes: Ian Desmond (WAS) has some upside in Wrigley with the wind blowing out. He’s an alternative value on the higher end of the cost spectrum. On the cheaper end, Alcides Escobar (KC) faces a subpar pitcher in Adam Warren and gets a big positive park shift, although he does lack the platoon edge. I’d also consider Zack Cozart (CIN) a nice punt if he finds himself back towards the top of the order. He’ll have the platoon edge at home. Wilmer Flores (NYM) is best used in tournaments, but like Cozart could become a viable cash option with the right lineup spot. Flores lacks a good park and the platoon edge, but he has good power for a shortstop and the Mets offense is expected to have more success than usual today.

Third Base

Top Play:

Josh Donaldson (TOR) – Donaldson is far and away our top third base play and someone I’d try to target in cash games on all sites. There isn’t much opportunity cost at third base and Donaldson is in an elite situation. Since 2012, he has posted an amazing .419 wOBA and .299 ISO against LHP. That’s particularly impressive when you consider most of those stats were compiled in Oakland’s spacious park (ninth worst park for RHBs). Now he calls Toronto home (third best park for RHBs). That’s where Donaldson will be tonight as he squares off against the subpar John Danks. Danks is both a bad overall pitcher (ERA at 4.74-plus for four straight seasons and is now allowing more fly balls than ever) and has horrific splits (.352 wOBA, 1.55 HR/9 allowed to RHBs since 2012). With the individual matchup, park and expected team success (Blue Jays have a team total approaching 5) all lining up in Donaldson’s favor, he’s one of our core hitter targets this evening.

Value Plays:

Alex Rodriguez (NYY) – Rodriguez’s batted ball data (42.1 FB rate, 2.2 IFFB rate) and hard hit percentage (43.9) support the impressive power numbers he’s put up early on. He has a chance to add to those power numbers in a home matchup against southpaw Jason Vargas. Vargas is a soft tosser who is fly ball oriented. He skated by for years with that makeup but declines in both K and BB rates have this season have lead to disastrous results (ERA, FIP and xFIP all right around 5.25). The one issue with Rodriguez and other Yankee RHBs (specifically Chris Young) is that the Royals are flooded with great right-handed relief pitchers. This may make the Yankee hitters from the right side a bit higher risk, reward when at first glance they just seem like great plays.

Mike Moustakas (KC) – Moustakas is discounted from both Donaldson and Rodriguez today and the matchup is really good for him. He gets a massive park shift moving from Kansas City (seventh worst park for LH HRs) to Yankee Stadium (second best). Moustakas will face RHP Adam Warren who is really struggling to miss bats as a starter (5.48 K/9), making him somewhat HR prone despite a bit above average GB rate. Moustakas is having his best year. Some of it is luck related (high BABIP) but the cut-down on Ks is important (K percentage of 10.0 compared to 16.1 for his career). I’m pretty keyed in on Donaldson everywhere, but if diversifying off him in cash games go with one of the guys hitting in Yankee Stadium.

Additional third base notes: After frustrating us with a couple of subpar performances in high scoring games, Nolan Arenado (COL) has homered in back to back contests. Our general love for Arenado is well known and he has tournament upside in a great HR park facing a rookie pitcher who has struggled with the long ball in a limited sample. Danny Valencia (TOR) is a very cheap option, depending where he hits in the order. He has great platoon splits against LHP but is a liability if forced to face a RHP out of the pen (may get pinch hit for). Pablo Sandoval (BOS) is another secondary cash option as he holds the platoon edge on Mike Pelfrey and is a much better hitter from the left side of the plate. For tournaments, consider Todd Frazier (CIN) (HR/SB upside, De La Rosa is throwing with increased velocity but also allowing more hard hit contact), Josh Harrison (PIT) (chance for a big day, depending on lineup spot, against a young pitcher making his first ever MLB state) and Evan Longoria (TB) (low expected scoring game but platoon splits suggest there is individual upside against a shaky LHP in JA Happ).

Outfield

Top Play:

Bryce Harper (WAS) – Harper’s absurd start to the season (.393 ISO) is supported by all-around improvements in his game. His LD and FB rates are at career highs. His 34.8 HR/FB rate is probably unsustainable but both his prospect background and increased in LD rate and hard hit rate support a large increase from his career mark of 18.8. The huge 20.9 BB percentage is another good indicator. He’s the top outfield option on the day as he’ll face Kyle Hendricks (4.32 xFIP against LHBs) in Wrigley with the wind blowing out, giving the Nationals a healthy team total of five.

Next in line: Mike Trout (LAA)

Value Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) – Stanton is a great value on FanDuel where his price has fallen and we lean on individual matchups a bit more than we do on other sites due to their scoring system. He has an absurd 173 wRC+ and .315 ISO against LHP since 2012 and opposing pitcher Jeff Locke is pretty pedestrian.

Adam Jones (BAL) – Jones strikes me as underpriced across the industry and a great way to get access to an Orioles offense that has a high team total at home against Scott Feldman (4.51 career ERA). Both Jones and Feldman have pretty neutral splits so the same handed matchup shouldn’t serve as a deterrent. Jones is consistently making hard contact this season and is elevating the ball more (career low 44.1 GB rate). In conjunction with a reduced K rate (11.2 percent), he’s a hitter I’m comfortable using in all formats.

Gregory Polanco (PIT) – While Neil Walker is the best way to get access to the Pirates offense, Polanco is the second best. He’ll likely lead off against rookie Jose Urena who has poor projected splits against LHBs. Polanco has certainly been disappointing this season but projection systems expect improvement over the rest of the season and on the plus side he’s running very often. Young pitchers can struggle holding runners and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this is the case for Urena. Teammates Andrew McCutchen/Starling Marte are tournament considerations due to expensive price points.

Curtis Granderson (NYM) – I talked about Jerome Williams‘ poor splits in regards to Daniel Murphy but his problems go beyond simply containing LHBs. Overall, Williams has a 5.44 ERA and 5.02 FIP. ZiPS projects a ROS ERA of 5.00 with 1.28 HR/9 allowed. Williams has seen his velocity drop from 91.4 mph last season to 89.5 this year. Granderson makes for a nice third outfielder in cash games as you’ll need to save some money at one or two outfield spots in order to lock in the suggested starting pitchers and Josh Donaldson. While Granderson is aging, his batted ball data and plate discipline numbers are in line with his career marks. In fact both, are actually slightly better, which may help compensate for the gradual loss of raw power. Teammate Michael Cuddyer is very cold and lacks the platoon edge but if he has a top five lineup spot, he can still be used as a source of salary cap relief on FanDuel where he’s the bare minimum salary.

Ryan Raburn (CLE) – I think at times Raburn can be overly relied on in DFS but it’s tough to ignore him today. There’s no one cheaper than Raburn who carries as much upside. He’ll hit cleanup for a Cleveland team we expect to get to Wandy Rodriguez, despite Rodriguez’s recent run of success. Raburn is off to a strong start this season and has a healthy career .349 wOBA and .216 ISO against southpaws. Rodriguez is benefitting from unsustainably low marks in HR/FB rate (6.1, career mark is 11.3) and BABIP (.258, career mark is .295). There’s nothing in the batted ball data to suggest this should be happening, and career lows in chase rate and SwStr rate indicate that Rodriguez really isn’t fooling hitters despite the strong results. Raburn is particularly valuable on stricter pricing sites such as DraftKings where his $2,800 salary gives you the cap relief a punt option would provide but carries legitimate upside along with it.

Additional outfield notes: Jose Bautista (TOR) is our top ranked hitter in the model but a shoulder injury has me reserved in my expectations. George Springer (HOU) is an elite tournament option given his HR/SB upside and matchup against a struggling pitcher in a good hitter’s park. Carlos Gonzalez (COL) rates as a phenomenal value in our model but he hasn’t turned it around as much as I anticipated and missed yesterday’s game with an illness. Chris Colabello (TOR), depending on lineup spot, is a somewhat comparable salary cap relief option to Raburn. Angel Pagan (SF) is a solid cash game option as he has a low price tag, the platoon edge, a prime batting spot (third) and nice positive shift in park factor. Chris Young (NYY) hits LHP very well but is someone I’m viewing as an elite tournament option rather than a reliable cash game play due to the concerns outlined in teammate Alex Rodriguez‘s blurb. The Milwaukee RHBs carry plenty of upside due to their home park and platoon skills but will be underowned since they are facing Madison Bumgarner. Other tournament options I am looking at are Mookie Betts (BOS) (HR/SB upside and good lineup spot for an offense in a good spot), Alex Gordon (KC) (frustrating he hits sixth but receives a massive park shift and has the platoon edge against Adam Warren), Steve Pearce (BAL) (cash viable with a top five lineup spot) and Arizona RHBs (Trumbo, Pollock hit LHP well and Jaime Garcia was a bit rusty in his return from the DL).

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier One

1) Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Tier Two

2) Jacob DeGrom (NYM)

3) David Price (DET)

4) Danny Salazar (CLE) (weather risk)

5) Madison Bumgarner (SF)

6) Cay Buchholz (BOS) (weather risk)

Tier Three

7) Matt Shoemaker (LAA)

8) JA Happ (SEA)

9) Jesse Chavez (OAK)

10) Julio Teheran (ATL)

Tier Four

11) Jordan Zimmermann (WAS)

12) Jaime Garcia (STL)

13) Alex Colome (TB)

14) Jeff Locke (PIT)

Top Play:

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Kershaw has been frustrating to own in DFS as his performances have not lived up to his hefty price tag. Kershaw’s been a bit off to begin the season (high LD rate and allowing hard hit contact), but we still expect to see his “luck stats” in line with career marks moving forward. He currently has a .342 BABIP (.274 career), 20.0 HR/FB rate (6.9) and 65.6 LOB% (77.7). The hard contact is partially to blame but keep in mind that nothing else is off peripherally speaking. Kershaw’s velocity is fine. Nothing has changed in regards to pitch usage. His 13.7 SwStr rate and 65.0 F-Strike rate are close to last year’s career highs and easily exceed his career averages. As a result, Kershaw has a FIP (2.91) and xFIP (2.28) much lower than his actual ERA (4.32). Simplified – Kershaw is an elite pitcher who is still displaying elite skills; he’s just slightly off (and unlucky) to begin the year resulting in hard contact. He’ll face a very non-threatening Atlanta team that ranks 27th in wRC+ against LHP and has the seventh highest K percentage against it as well. Vegas isn’t worried about Kershaw, pegging him as a -250 favorite in a game with a total of just six, meaning the Atlanta total likely settles in around 2.5. We don’t like to play solely for the win, but according to our research, last season 76.2 percent of pitchers with a Vegas line of -240 or greater earned a win. That’s a huge hit rate, especially when you consider favored pitchers on the whole win only 40.9 percent of the time. In cash games it’s tough for me to envision using anyone besides Kershaw on one starting pitcher sites such as FanDuel.

Next in line:

Jacob DeGrom (NYM) – DeGrom is a pretty safe choice. He’s home in a pitcher friendly park, listed as a heavy favorite (-190) and facing a Phillies team that ranks dead last in wRC+ against RHP. DeGrom’s peripherals are in line with his awesome rookie season a year ago, and I’m expecting him to be a low 3 ERA pitcher who strikes out around a batter an inning. Adding to DeGrom’s safety is a very favorable umpire assignment. The only issue here is that the Phillies don’t strike out a lot (23rd highest K rate against RHP). It’s not a huge issue but it’s enough to get me to pay up for Clayton Kershaw where feasible. The gap between DeGrom and the value plays is much smaller than the gap between DeGrom and Kershaw.

Value Plays:

Danny Salazar (CLE) – Salazar will face a Rangers team that is hitting a lot better recently with Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre finding their strokes and Mitch Moreland healthy. Josh Hamilton debuted for them yesterday. He does give Salazar some strikeout upside but also gives the Rangers another LHB, making it possible for them to start 4-5. I’m not meaning to scare you off Salazar, but it’s a bit of a higher risk, reward matchup than it probably appears at first glance (Rangers are 24th in wRC+ against RHP). Salazar has been absolutely phenomenal this season. He leads MLB in K percentage (33.7), K-BB percentage (28.7), SIERA (2.27) and is second in SwStr rate (14.8). His regained velocity has led to the high K numbers but impressively he’s also become GB neutral (43.8 GB rate, previously below 35 percent), which is important because when he does allow contact it’s hard hit and has resulted in a consistently elevated HR/FB rate. There’s insane upside here due to the combination of skills Salazar is boasting, headlined by the K rate. For the more risk tolerant, save $900 on a multiple starting pitcher site like DraftKings and use Salazar over DeGrom. For the more risk averse, pay up for DeGrom’s safety.

Clay Buchholz (BOS) – It’s tough to use expected ERAs to gauge Buchholz when he’s vastly underperforming them for the second straight season. However, it’s the right thing to do. His 3.15 FIP and 3.11 xFIP are more representative of the skills Buchholz is currently displaying than the 4.58 ERA. He’s keeping the ball on the ground (49.7 GB rate) and striking out a career best 25.6 percent of batters, which is supported by a career best 11.8 SwStr rate. The increased Ks have not come at the expense of wildness as Buchholz also has a 62.6 F-Strike rate, just under his previous career best of 62.7. The result has been a very favorable 6.6 BB rate. The fact is Buchholz has simply been unlucky. He has a .340 BABIP (.288 career mark) and 64.6 LOB% (71.4). Sometimes players aren’t actually unlucky but are giving up hard contact. However, in Buchholz’s case he’s allowing the least amount of hard hit contact of his career (29.2 hard hit rate) and the second highest amount of weak contact (19.7 soft hit rate). He gets a nice park shift playing in spacious Target Field and will square off against a Twins offense that has the third highest K rate against RHP and is 28th in wRC+ against it. If he’s cheaper than DeGrom/Price/Salazar, he’s the guy I’ll plug in on multiple starting pitcher sites, such as DraftKings. Buchholz has also demonstrated a high ceiling that makes him worthy of tournament consideration on single starting pitcher sites as well. Additional note: If you’re looking for some analysis on why Buchholz’s peripherals are so gaudy, this great piece by Eno Sarris of FanGraphs is a good starting point.

Additional starting pitcher notes: David Price (DET) has a great combination of high floor and high ceiling as he’ll face a bad Athletics team in a pitcher friendly park. I expect the K rate to start to rise for Price and my only issue with him in DFS today is the price tag leaves me paying up for Kershaw or saving money on the other three written up options. Madison Bumgarner (SF) is a tournament only consideration in my book. He’s been a bit more fly ball risky this year and that risk is amplified by facing a Brewers team with RH power (Braun, Gomez, Ramirez, Davis) in Miller Park. Matt Shoemaker (LAA) is a very high risk, high reward play. On the risk side, he’s giving up hard hit aerial contact as a result of reduced velocity. On the reward side, he’s somehow still managed to maintain his high K and SwStr rates and will face a bad Padres offense in his spacious home park. Although I have JA Happ (SEA) ranked a spot lower, he’s probably safer. He too will pitch in a good pitcher’s park (Tropicana Field) and will go up against a very subpar Rays lineup.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (help@dailyroto.com) if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) Toronto Blue Jays

2) Houston Astros

3) Baltimore Orioles

4) Boston Red Sox

5) New York Yankees

We hit on all of these teams in the analysis. The Blue Jays are far and away the best team to mini-stack in cash games, and I’d suggest forcing in at least two players from them in all cash game lineups.

The Astros have a nice matchup in a favorable park and it’s important to remember they are filled with “event” players from top to bottom as they lead MLB in homers and steals. They’re consistently a smart team to full stack in tournaments as a result.

The Yankees stack is a good one due to park and Jason Vargas‘ issues but keep in mind the Royals have a pretty dominant bullpen.

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) Chicago White Sox

2) Colorado Rockies

3) San Francisco Giants

4) Kansas City Royals

5) Wrigley Field

The White Sox hitters didn’t really stand out as great individual plays but they have plenty of upside in tournaments and are probably a bit more cash viable than the initial run of the Analysis column indicates. RA Dickey is having a lot of problems (5.77 FIP, 4.92 xFIP) and it’s very important to note that the hard knuckle ball he had success with in New York (77.1 mph in 2012) is now completely gone (averaging 74.9 mph). There’s also always a bit of added value in stacking a road team since you’re guaranteed ninth inning at bats and that inning isn’t capped.

The Rockies, like the White Sox, don’t have a bunch of great individual plays that stand out. Sometimes that can result in low ownership in tournaments. Despite being on the road, the Rockies are in pretty much the most favorable hitting park they could be outside of Coors Field. Rookie RHP Michael Lorenzen for the Reds has been very HR prone, something that projections systems anticipate continuing.

The Giants may get overlooked but they get a big park shift playing in Milwaukee and will take on Matt Garza, who is having control issues he’s never had before and has given up 14 runs over his last two starts and four starts on the season of 4 ER allowed or more. The Milwaukee bullpen is horrendous, adding to the Giants upside.

The Royals, like the Yankees, are in a great starting spot but also have some downside in their stack since the back end of the Yankees bullpen is phenomenal. Still, Adam Warren is a contact pitcher right now and the park shift for the Royals is massive.

Finally, the Wrigley Field game. We’ve been burned a few times this season with high totals due to the wind blowing out. That’s the case tonight (game total of 10). The pricing for these players isn’t great, which is a big reason you don’t see many names from either team in today’s analysis. This is a good chance to get low ownership exposure to the game with the highest total on the night.

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.

WSH at CHC 7:00: A few showers and thunderstorms around. I do not see a cancellation but there can be a delay (20-30%). Temps in the mid 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7. Wind south-southwest 12-25 mph lessening to 10-20 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is an 8 becoming a 7.

HOU at BLT 7:05: Dry to start but showers and thunderstorms try to move into the city late in the game, after 9 PM. No worries about a cancellation, 20-30% chance of a delay or stoppage of play. Temps in the low 80s falling into the low 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind south 5-10 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.

KC at NYY 7:05: A 10-20% chance of a delay due to a scattered shower or thunderstorm. No risk of a cancellation. Temps near 80 falling into the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 8 becoming a 7. Wind south 5-10 mph which blows  out to left. The wind is a 6.

MIA at PIT 7:05: A 30-40% chance of a delay or stoppage in play at anytime due to showers and thunderstorms moving through. Not worried about a cancellation as the rain is showery in nature and it is moving. Temps in the upper 70s to start falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind south-southwest 5-10 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

CHW at TOR 7:07: Retractable roof. A shower or thunderstorm will be around so they roof will likely be shut. If it is open, temps will be in the upper 70s falling into the low 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind south 8-16 mph lessening to 6-12 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7 becoming a 6.

TEX at CLE 7:10: Showers and thunderstorms will cause a 40-60% chance of delay at anytime, there is also a 30-40% chance of multiple delays. I am not overly concerned about a cancellation due the showery nature of the rain and it is moving (ie. it is not a steady shield of rain). Would give the chance of a cancellation as <20%. Temps near 80 falling into the lower 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind south 10-20 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7 or 8.

COL at CIN 7:10: A few showers and thunderstorms around, especially early in the game. Would estimate that is a 30% chance of a delay in the beginning or at the start of the game. Very little (<10-20% chance) of a cancellation. Temps near 80 to start falling into the low 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind south 8-16 mph lessening to 6-12 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 3 becoming a 4.

PHL at NYM 7:10:  A 10-20% chance of a delay due to a scattered shower or thunderstorm. No risk of a cancellation. Temps near 80 falling into the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 8 becoming a 7. Wind south 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

SEA at TB 7:10: Dome.

SF at MIL 8:10: Retractable roof. A few scattered showers around. Tough to say whether the roof will be open or closed. If it is open, temps will be in the upper 60s falling into the low to mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind south-southwest 8-16 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 3.

BOS at MIN 8:10: A steady light rain lifts north of the city in the beginning of the game. There could be a few random showers during the later part of the game. Chance of a delay to start or in the beginning of the game is 30-40% chance. Chance for a cancellation is 20%. Temps in the upper 60s falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind northwest 4-8 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

AZ at STL 8:15: Dry. Temps near 80 falling into the low to mid 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind southwest 8-16 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7 becoming a 6.

ATL at LAD 10:00: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s falling into the lower 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 becoming a 6.

SD at LAA 10:05:  Dry. Temps in the mid 60s falling into the lower 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 becoming a 6.

DET at OAK 10:05: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s falling into the upper 50s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is a 7.

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