Welcome to May 28 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for May 28 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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May 28 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
12:04 First Base
15:00 Second Base
18:25 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
May 28 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Lance McCullers (HOU) is our top ranked SP on the day and a great building block for cash games on both DK and FD. McCullers carries our highest K projection thanks to a 27.2 K% and matchup against the Orioles, who project to strike out slightly more than average. That K% is slightly down for McCullers from last year, but his overall peripherals are better. McCullers has been in the zone more often, adding to a great GB rate (60.5%) and limiting walks, which has more than offset a few less strikeouts.
Next in line is Michael Pineda (NYY) who also carries a high K projection. He’s been phenomenal all season (2.86 xFIP) but does have some problems with the long ball still (HR/FB rates of 14.7, 17.0, and now 23.4 the past three seasons). Oakland surprisingly strikes out fourth most among all teams against RHP but is also eighth in wRC+ in that split. Pineda is a fine option, but we simply prefer McCullers if deciding between the two. Pineda has struck out fewer batters while allowing harder contact recently.
There’s enough cap relief on DK to fire away with both McCullers and Pineda and still get in some high end bats. On FD, if using either McCullers or Pineda, you may not get high end bats but can fit a pretty balanced offense overall. Still, if you want more exposure to high end bats on either site, Joe Ross (WAS) is a potential pivot. Most importantly, the matchup is phenomenal. The Padres rank 27th in wRC+ against RHP with a 24.9 K%, which is second highest. Ross is a heavy -165 favorite, and in our opinion, the 4 IRTA is more likely to come down than go up by opening pitch. Ross is coming off a stellar outing (8 IP, 6:0 K:BB) against the Mariners. The price is appropriate, but he still provides plenty of upside at that tag while freeing up some room for offense.
Those three carry the bulk of our focus for cash games. In tournaments on DK, it’s possible to save even more money in that second SP spot with Jimmy Nelson (MIL), who carries decent K upside), or Joe Biagini (TOR), a full punt who has pitched fairly well for the Jays but really has his upside limited due to IP limitations (completed a full five innings just once in four starts).
Matt Shoemaker (LAA) has the K upside to be used in tournaments (7 or more Ks in four starts), and he gets a positive league shift facing the Marlins in Miami.
Alex Avila (DET) grabs the top spot in our catcher rankings on this Sunday slate. Avila has taken advantage of a slide up the order to the second spot of the order against RHP, having posted a 44.6% Hard% this season, and an even stronger 50% Hard% in the last fifteen days. The price tag has risen on FanDuel to $3,300, but given the looser cap restraints you can make it work quite easily. Instead, we’re more interested on DraftKings as he’s just $3,400.
On FanDuel, you’ll get Gary Sanchez (NYY) at the same price as Avila, and Evan Gattis (HOU) for just $100 cheaper. Sanchez brings much more power potential and is the better overall player, but the matchup with Andrew Triggs is a bit less enticing than Avila’s with Miguel Gonzalez. Gattis has seen his lineup spot fluctuate a bit against right-handed pitching, but each of his last two starts he’s found himself in the fifth spot in the order against them. The Astros will be a popular team to target today given their matchup with Alec Asher. It’s necessary to look beyond the 2.17 ERA that Asher has produced given an absurd strand rate and pitched above his means (31% GB%, 32% Hard%, below average K%).
Either of Russell Martin (TOR) or Jonathan Lucroy (TEX) are viable alternatives in tournaments. Jett Bandy (MIL) is a potential cheap play if he should find himself back in the sixth spot against Patrick Corbin. He’s just $3,200 on DK and $2,500 on FD.
Kendrys Morales (TOR) and Joey Votto (CIN) top the first base rankings today. Morales is the “pure” value play, grabbing the cleanup spot against right-hander Andrew Cashner. Cashner is another arm on this slate that hasn’t been quite as good as his ERA might show, having produced a 5.58 xFIP compared to a 3.18 ERA. Morales will get the platoon edge on either handedness, but he’s more powerful from the left side, posting a .223 ISO against RHP since 2015. At just $3,600 on DK and $3,100 on FD he’s our top value at the position.
Votto gets a juicy matchup with Zach Eflin. Eflin is another high contact arm that has allowed 35.4% Hard% to opposing hitters so far this year. Votto’s priced appropriately on both sites and therefore is more of a secondary cash game play, but a great option nonetheless.
Wil Myers (SD) and Miguel Cabrera (DET) fill out the tier right behind Morales and Votto. Myers value largely stems from his price tag as his matchup with Joe Ross is not a super easy one for right-handers to manage as Ross has allowed a .251 wOBA to RHB since 2015. Cabrera and the Tigers though hold an implied run total of 4.7 runs and will look to take advantage of the contact heavy, home run prone ways of Miguel Gonzalez. At $4,000 on FanDuel and $4,500 on DraftKings, Cabrera enters the conversation as a potential cash game play.
Hanley Ramirez (BOS) and the Red Sox draw a matchup with a horrific Seattle bullpen and the “turned” starter Christian Bergman. He’s a great tournament option.
Eric Thames (MIL) and Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) shouldn’t be left out of the tournament conversation.
Jose Altuve (HOU) is the top ranked second baseman in our model. Altuve has seen a 4.4% increase in his Hard% over the last fifteen days and the matchup with Alec Asher might be able to help him keep the ball off the ground as Asher is an extreme fly ball arm and the GB% has seen a sharp rise this season for Altuve. He’s priced fully on DraftKings at $5,100, but for just $3,800 on FanDuel you can reasonably make him fit for either format.
Instead though you might look to Jonathan Villar (MIL) or Rougned Odor (TEX) who are just $3,200 and $2,800 respectively on FanDuel. Like Altuve, Villar has seen a positive delta in the last fifteen days in terms of Hard%. Patrick Corbin has struggled allowing power this season (1.57 HR/9) and the large discrepancy between his Hard% and Soft% (20.1%) likely has something to do with that. Odor provides enough savings on both sites and he’ll get the platoon edge against RHP Joe Biagini. He’s been quite powerful against RHP since 2015, posting a .225 ISO against RHP since 2015.
Odor holds some cash game viability on DraftKings, but the top two values there are Yangervis Solarte (SD) and Andrew Romine (DET). Solarte will get the platoon edge on Joe Ross and though not a great matchup on all fronts, the wide platoon splits of Ross push him in the conversation. Ross has allowed a .359 wOBA to LHB since 2015, as compared to a .251 wOBA to RHB. At just $2,800, Solarte will allow you to prioritize at other positions. Romine is the better contextual play, likely leading off against Miguel Gonzalez with no Ian Kinsler. He’s just $3,000 on DraftKings and the Tigers are one of many teams with an implied run total clustered between 4.5-6 on this slate.
Brian Dozier (MIN), Daniel Murphy (WSH), and Ryan Schimpf (SD) are all great tournament options.
Josh Donaldson (TOR) is the top third baseman in our model. Donaldson’s return to the Blue Jays signals a huge swing in depth for their lineup, but also an added boost to the depth of the third base player pool. His matchup with Andrew Cashner is prime for success and the price tag of just $4,600 on DraftKings and $3,800 on FanDuel is very accessible. He’s a great cash game target on both sites.
If you can’t afford Donaldson, Evan Longoria (TB) rates highly in our model as well, for much cheaper at just $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DraftKings. Longoria will get the contact prone Kyle Gibson, taking advantage of a park shift away from his home ballpark and the major struggles of Gibson this season. Gibson has posted an ERA north of 8, allowed more than 20% more hard contact than soft, and is walking more batters than ever before.
On DraftKings you can go a bit cheaper as Ryan Schimpf (SD) and Hernan Perez (MIL) both fall just behind Longoria in terms of price. Schimpf is the extreme fly ball hitter that will look to exploit the wide platoon splits of Joe Ross. Though we’d consider Ross a “ground ball” arm, he’s only gotten ground balls at a 37% clip against LHB in his career. Schimpf has posted a .293 ISO against RHP since 2015.
Perez is a less powerful but will also hold the platoon edge in his matchup with Patrick Corbin. He’s posted a respectable .194 ISO in limited duties since 2015 against LHP and should draw a lineup spot in the top five of the order.
Jake Lamb (ARI), Miguel Sano (MIN), and Todd Frazier (CHW) all fall in the top 7 in terms of raw projection and are great tournament plays at the position.
The trio of Carlos Correa (HOU), Trea Turner (WSH), and Xander Bogaerts (BOS) leads the shortstop rankings on Sunday. Despite their price tags, it’s not unlikely that you can make them work in cash games on either site, though our preference here is for Carlos Correa.
Correa gets the juicy matchup with Alec Asher as the Astros hold an implied run total of 5 runs and find themselves in our top tier of stacks.
For much cheaper you can use either Allen Cordoba (SD) or Alcides Escobar (KC). We don’t have much to go off of for Cordoba, but three games in a row he’s found himself in the leadoff spot as the Padres are now without Manuel Margot. He’s flashed decent power (.152 ISO) though neither ZiPS nor Steamer expects it to trend that high the rest of the way. If you’re punting the spot, as Cordoba is just $2,300 on both sites, he’s our preference over Escobar.
Elvis Andrus (TEX) and Zack Cozart (CIN) rate similarly in our model, but their price tags are unjustifiable for cash games, rendering them as tournament only plays.
George Springer (HOU) and Josh Reddick (HOU) are two of the most valuable outfield plays on both sites on Sunday. The pair will both draw the same matchup that we’ve alluded to a bunch already with Alec Asher. Not only are the Astros a tempting stack because of the matchup, but the price tags associated with these guys are absurd. Springer is just $4,000 on DK and $3,300 on FanDuel while Reddick will cost you the same on DK, and $3,500 on FanDuel. There isn’t much left to say about Asher. He’s outperforming his peripherals and we don’t expect him to be of much use today against the Astros. This duo makes for a solid cash game pair.
Bryce Harper (WSH) and Mookie Betts (BOS) are priced fully but still rate as two of the best values at the position. Harper holds the platoon edge on Jhoulys Chacin and is a fine one off play in tournaments. Betts is more intriguing as a cash game play if you were trying to make one expensive outfielder work. The Red Sox have the highest implied run total on the slate and will get Christian Bergman backed up by a seemingly anonymous bullpen.
David Peralta (ARI), Gregor Blanco (ARI), and Domingo Santana (MIL) represent a trio from a potentially overlooked game on this slate taking place in Milwaukee. The trio as a whole will all come away with the platoon advantage and they all come with middling price tags on both sites. Peralta and Blanco will get the wide splits of Jimmy Nelson, and Peralta in particular has been a great option against RHP having posted a .205 ISO and .378 wOBA since 2015. Santana on the other end comes with some power upside as well, having posted a .220 ISO against LHP since 2015. We noted earlier the struggles Corbin has had with hard contact and the long ball this season, putting Santana firmly in play in either format. Santana’s teammate, Hernan Perez (MIL) holds OF eligibility on DK.
Andrew Romine (DET) is OF eligible on FanDuel and is just $2,300. Should he find himself in the leadoff spot again, he’s a great way to find some cap relief (though you might not need it).
Billy Hamilton (CIN) is always aided by contact oriented arms and that’s what he’ll get in Zach Eflin. He’s priced fully on both sites, but has seemingly unlimited upside on the base paths. A whole host of others is worthy of tournament consideration, but alas we cannot drone on at this deep position for hours. Jose Bautista (TOR), Andrew Benintendi (BOS), and Corey Dickerson (TB) are some of our favorites.
1) Cincinnati Reds
2) Houston Astros
The Reds are priced appropriately for the most part so they weren’t a staple of our positional analysis despite rating real well as an overall stack. We’ve long proposed stacking against Zach Eflin, an SP that allows a lot of balls in play and has an elevated HR/FB rate for his career (13.8%). Eflin has good control, which helps in real life, but it also increases the DFS ceiling of opponents since so many balls are put in play.
The Astros are second in wRC+ against RHP and possess an IRT of 5 facing Alec Asher and the Orioles. Asher’s low ERA is not supported by peripherals (4.82 xFIP), and both ZiPS (4.59 ERA, 1.51 HR/9) and Steamer (5.49 ERA, 1.87 HR/9) expect him to get hit hard rest of season.
3) Boston Red Sox
4) Milwaukee Brewers
5) Toronto Blue Jays
6) Washington Nationals
As we noted recently, the Red Sox’s DFS prospects sometimes lag behind their IRT (5.7). If they are the highest scoring team on the slate, they’ll obviously be worth stacking in tournaments, but they do lack event upside.
The Brewers are the most affordable of the top two tier stacks and possess plenty of upside with homer/speed threats like Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, and Keon Broxton. For the second consecutive season, a Hard-Soft% around double the league average has resulted in home run problems for Patrick Corbin.
At some point Cashner is going to blow up, having walked more than he has struck out. He’s backed by the bullpen with the second highest ERA in MLB and will face a Jays team that is healthier and swinging the bat better.
7) Arizona Diamondbacks
8) Detroit Tigers
The Diamondbacks lineup has our highest 15-day Hard% among projected lineups in the main slate.