FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
May 29 MLB DFS: Tyson’s Punch Out
dinkpiece
Print Friendly

Welcome to May 29 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Podcast and cliff notes for May 29 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

premium_access_now  CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS  |  HITTER SPLITS  | PITCHER SPLITS  |  SORTABLE STATS  |  PITCHER TRENDS  |  LINEUPS  |  LEADERS

May 29 MLB DFS Position Timestamps

00:42 Starting Pitcher
15:32 Catcher
18:35 First Base
22:09 Second Base
25:10 Third Base
28:46 Shortstop
31:39 Outfield
37:39 Stacks

1x

Make sure to check out our new Slack Chat

CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

Want to help fight blood cancer and compete for World Series tickets? Learn about the mission of DKMS and compete nightly for World Series tickets this MLB season on FantasyDraft. All for FREE. Sponsored by FNTSY and DKMS, learn about their mission and access the daily contests at dailyroto.com/dkms.

Range of Outcome Projections

May 29 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

Tuesday’s slate comes without truly elite starting pitching but has a number of higher upside targets with annoying price tags up top. Kenta Maeda (LAD), Tyson Ross (SD), Charlie Morton (HOU), and Blake Snell (TB) form an interesting top tier of options. All four of these starters have had an individual start this season where they’ve struck out at least 37 percent of batters faced.

Maeda and Ross get the strongest matchups of the group as they face the Phillies (20th in wRC+ against RHP with the second highest K Rate against RHP) and the Marlins (28th in wRC+ against RHP with a 23.9 K Rate against RHP). Of the high end starters, these two also have the most consistently reasonable price tags across the industry. Ross has the lowest implied total against on the slate (3.1 runs) as he faces a Marlins team that simply struggles to get left-handed. Ross has historically dominated RHBs (.285 wOBA, .106 ISO, 24.3 K Rate in his career) and has been even more dominant this year (.203 wOBA, .092 ISO, 28.6 K Rate) in a small sample. Ross can be an unnerving play given his command issues but they’re much more controlled against RHBs and he looks like the best lead play on a slate filled with hitting.

Maeda’s not much of a “safer” target given his wider platoon splits and Dave Roberts’ propensity for a quick hook so we’re inclined to lean towards the salary relief of Ross but Maeda is a near equivalent value.

Charlie Morton has the toughest matchup of the group and looks like the weakest play. Not only are the Yankees strong against RHP (first in wRC+) but their RH dominant lineup isn’t a great fit for Morton’s K rates (40 percent K Rate against LHBs, 21 percent K Rate against RHBs this season).

Snell is a bit more interesting on FanDuel than on DraftKings due to pricing. The park shift to Oakland is negative for strikeout oriented pitchers and while the Athletics are a plus matchup for strikeouts on the whole, they’re also not a terrible offense against LHP. At mid-$8,000s on FanDuel, Snell is fine. At $10,000+ on DraftKings, it’s a bit of a stretch.

There are a few interesting targets for SP2 on DraftKings. The most intriguing is Dan Straily (MIA) who has seen his salary dip to $6,300 in time for a matchup with the Padres who rank 27th in wRC+ against RHP with the league’s highest K Rate (26.8 percent). Straily has been bad this season but most of the struggles were in his first two starts back where he walked eight and only struck out three against the Reds and Phillies. In three starts since, Straily has gone 18 IP, 10 H, 9 BB, 3 ER, and 16 Ks for lines that more closely resemble last season (4.26 ERA/4.58 FIP). The Padres are the main part of the appeal here as they provide such a great matchup for a $6,300 tag. Straily has the third lowest implied total against on the slate and both he and Ross get a favorable home plate umpire. We like pairing the two together in cash games and consider it fine in GPPs as well.

The other primary cheap target for SP2 on DraftKings is Danny Duffy (KC) who is pure minimum at $4,000. The Twins are better set against LHP with the return of Miguel Sano but they rank 21st on the season against LHP in wRC+ with an above average K Rate. The Twins do get very right-handed against LHP (typically only two lefties) which tempers the enthusiasm for Duffy’s wild splits but at the bare minimum it’s rare to find someone with a baseline K Rate around 20 percent. Typically this area is reserved for extreme contact starters.

The secondary options behind Straily and Duffy in our projections are Kyle Gibson (MIN), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Daniel Gossett (OAK), and to a much lesser extent Anibal Sanchez (ATL). Gibson has been strong against righties and the Royals’ offense doesn’t pose much of a threat beyond Mike Moustakas currently against RHP. Gibson’s priced appropriately which on this slate pushes him a bit behind the other secondary starters. Felix Hernandez gets a nice matchup against the Rangers putrid offense but Hernandez has had his own skill set issues of late. Gossett is near minimum in Oakland against a below average Rays’ offense. Sanchez is the wild card. He’s only worked three innings in rehab starts but the Braves need innings after the double-header and the Mets’ offense has strikeouts in it. We would only consider Sanchez as an MME flier.

Zack Godley (ARI) and Luis Castillo (CIN) square off against one another and Castillo in particular has nice strikeout upside but neither have great price tags. They’re viable in a MME-pool but not primary plays for us.

Catcher

Buster Posey (SF) represents the top projected scorer at the catcher position. Posey and the Giants are finishing up a three game road trip in Coors Field tonight and they’re facing southpaw Kyle Freeland. With the platoon edge, Posey has generated a .374 wOBA and .185 ISO since 2016. Every team going into Coors Field gets a favorable park shift, but for this Giants offense in particular it’s a bigger park shift than usual as they play half of their games in by far the most difficult environment (AT&T Park) for home runs in all of baseball. Posey is just $4,200 on DK, which is a good price tag for him in this context.

We’d like to stick with Posey in cash games if possible. If you need a cheaper target, we’d prefer to stick with the other Coors Field option, Chris Iannetta (COL). Iannetta doesn’t get good hitting lineup spots vs. RHP but he’s part of a Rockies offense that once again carries a slate high IRT (6.2). If Iannetta isn’t in the lineup, Tony Wolters (COL) would emerge as an even cheaper option ($2,700).

Mitch Garver (MIN) is more of an emergency punt ($2,700) should you need further salary relief.

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) and Wilson Ramos (TB) are additional options with power upside that are in play in tournaments. Grandal doesn’t have a great matchup against Jake Arrieta but since 2016 he’s generated a .352 wOBA and an impressive .247 ISO vs. RHP. Tyler Flowers (ATL) is another catcher with some power upside and with the platoon edge that can be considered.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is the traditional first baseman with the top projection in this slate. Buster Posey (SF) is ahead of Goldy in projection. Posey is first base eligible on DK and on FD he can be used at C/1B. In fact, Posey has a middling price tag ($3,400) on FD and gives you exposure to a road team in Coors Field getting a massive park shift. Goldy has a more challenging context – he’s at home, which we view as a neutral environment with the addition of the humidor and in a matchup against Luis Castillo. Castillo has been bit by the long ball this season though and Goldy does have decent price tags, which keeps him in the tournament conversation.

Freddie Freeman (ATL) has the same projection as Goldy on FD but he comes with an appropriate price tag ($4,500). Freeman won’t have the platoon edge in his matchup against Steven Matz, and while he projects as a slight overspend in this slate, we think he can still be pursued in tournaments. Usually L/L matchups depress ownership more than they should, especially when talking about an elite hitter like Freeman who can hit LHP well.

Our optimals are calling for cheap 1B options. On DK, Ryan Braun (MIL) and Miguel Sano (MIN) are sub $4k and have above average contexts. Braun is at home in a friendly hitting environment and gets to face Michael Wacha, who’s gotten favorable results in the run prevention department this season though it feels like fools gold. Wacha is missing less bats this season, generating less ground balls (40% GB rate) and has been getting hit hard (21% hard minus soft hit rate). Braun’s current projection is assuming that he hits third in the lineup, but he hit fifth yesterday. We’ll see where he hits in the lineup tonight but third would be the ideal spot.

Sano is on the road in Kansas City where it’s still very warm (mid 80s) and gets to face Danny Duffy, who’s allowed a .194 ISO vs. RHBs since 2016.

On FD, Brad Miller (TB) and Chris Davis (BAL) are entering optimals with $2,600 and $2,400 price tags respectively. Miller has been leading off for the Rays vs. RHP of late and he’s on the road where he’ll have four guaranteed PAs. We prefer him over Chris Davis, who’s been beyond awful this season.

Joey Gallo (TEX) deserves tournament consideration on DK where he’s sub $4k and will have the platoon edge in his matchup against Felix Hernandez.

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) represents the top projected scorer at second base. Dozier hasn’t been as productive as he has been over the last few seasons but his batted ball profile remains largely the same. He’s slugged a .402 wOBA and .290 ISO vs. LHP since 2016 and tonight he gets a road matchup against Danny Duffy, who’s looked broken all season. Duffy isn’t missing as many bats, has generated less ground balls and he’s allowed a 28% hard minus soft hit rate, which is a massive number. Dozier’s price tag remains too soft on DK ($3,900) where he’s a phenomenal value. He’s priced a little better on FD ($3,600) but he’s by far the best value over there.

The next best values on FD are Ozzie Albies (ATL) and Ian Kinsler (LAA). Albies remains a strong tournament target, especially now that his price tag has come down a little bit ($3,900). He’s a switch hitter, so he’ll have the platoon edge against Steven Matz and whoever comes out of the pen for the Mets. We have pegged him with a .355 wOBA and .200 ISO baselines vs. LHP.

We still have Kinsler leading off vs. RHP, which he did vs. a RHP last Friday. Yesterday he was dropped in the lineup to seventh. We’re not very interested in Kinsler, even if he leads off as his salary relief isn’t necessary on FD. He’s very cheap on DK as well and projects as the next best value after Dozier but we’re inclined to play the latter in cash games.

Matt Carpenter (STL) has been heating up of late and the results are backed up by a 32% HHR over the L15 days. He’s $100 cheaper than Dozier on DK which keeps him in the conversation across all formats. He’ll have the platoon edge against Zach Davies in Miller Park, which is a massive park shift for this entire Cardinals offense.

Jose Altuve (HOU) has been absurd of late. He hit a home run yesterday and before this series against the Yankees he generated 10 straight hits. He’ll have the platoon edge against CC Sabathia tonight, which keeps him in the tournament conversation.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL) carries the top projection at third base once again as he continues to be in Coors Field facing below average pitchers. Tonight Arenado gets a matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who’s K rate has dropped to 15.6% this season with a GB rate that’s alarmingly low (33.6%) for a pitcher that once had decent GB rates. Arenado has generated a massive .250 ISO vs. RHP since 2016. He’s in play across all formats though it’s worth noting that he continues to be a much easier fit on DK than on FD.

On FD, we’re going after Miguel Sano (MIN). Sano is just $3,300, which is a price tag that frankly we don’t get for infielders with his upside on that site. Sano recently came back from the DL and he hasn’t done much but since 2016 he’s generated a .368 wOBA and .269 ISO vs. LHP. We get good lineup spots out of him as well and he has an above average matchup against Danny Duffy and a wretched Royals bullpen. He’s currently in all of our top optimals on FD.

Sano and Matt Carpenter (STL) are viable alternatives to Arenado on DK if you need salary relief at the position. Our optimals are simply jamming Arenado on that site while it grabs salary relief at SP2.

There’s one more option to consider in all formats on both sites, and that’s Evan Longoria (SF). Longoria has a mid-tier price tag around the industry and he’ll have the platoon edge in Coors Field. Longoria is another veteran hitter that’s had a pedestrian season but since 2016 he’s generated a .192 ISO vs. LHP and over his last 100 PAs vs. LHP he’s slugged a .239 ISO. Longoria is just $200 more expensive than Sano on FD.

Mike Moustakas (KC), Jake Lamb (ARI) and Josh Donaldson (TOR) are additional tournament targets with power upside that you can consider.

Shortstop

Trea Turner (WSH) represents the top projected scorer at the shortstop position. He’s expensive around the industry and deservingly so. Turner has generated a 33% HHR over the L15 days and has a matchup against Dylan Bundy, who’s allowed a .186 ISO vs. RHBs since 2016. Turner is a viable option in both cash and tournament games on both sites.

On FD, our optimals have latched onto Trevor Story (COL) who comes with a slightly bigger projection than Turner and is $200 cheaper. Story is a middle of the lineup hitter that carries both power and speed upside. This season he’s already hit for 10 home runs and has generated eight stolen bases. There’s also a meaningful gap in IRT between the Rockies and Nationals (6.2 vs. 4.6). Story is $100 more expensive on DK but he can be considered in all formats as well.

If you need salary relief, Jedd Gyorko (STL) remains our go to target on FD where he’s still $2,900. He won’t have the platoon edge tonight but we still have a .195 ISO baseline for him against RHP. It’s a little bit more difficult to get excited about the salary relief options at the position on DK. Marcus Semien (OAK) is $3,900 and hits leadoff vs. LHP but his matchup isn’t one we have attacked much if at all this season (Blake Snell). Kelby Tomlinson (SF) is viable simply because he’s in Coors Field and has a $3k price tag, but he’s a terrible hitter.

Carlos Correa (HOU) splits the difference on both sites. This Astros offense has plenty of RHBs with power and they’re in Yankee Stadium. CC Sabathia is a solid pitcher but any time you can get the Astros at low ownership in a full slate it’s a route we encourage in tournaments.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon (COL) is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of hitting position. Blackmon is in Coors Field in a matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who’s allowed a .330 wOBA and .206 ISO to LHBs since 2016. He’s been an elite hitter vs. RHP (.410 wOBA, .282 ISO since 2016) and in this context we view him as a priority spend on DK. It’s even possible to include him in cash game builds on FD but doing so will likely leave you thin somewhere.

On both sites, the rest of the Rockies OF projects as vital pieces in cash games. Two of David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra (COL) will be in the lineup against Samardzija and they have top five lineup. Dahl remains the most intriguing of the bunch as he’s been the best hitter vs. RHP (.382 wOBA, .209 ISO vs. RHP since 2016) but the price tags on all three are exceptional everywhere. It’s a bit difficult to go after Blackmon on FD, so we recommend at least using two of these options. On DK, you can trot an all Rockies OF without having to sacrifice much.

On both sites, we view Andrew McCutchen (SF) as underpriced. He’s hit LHP very well since 2016, generating a .380 wOBA and .257 ISO. Kyle Freeland can keep the ball in the ground and we don’t consider him the worst pitcher in the slate by any means but his below average K rate won’t help him in Coors Field where McCutchen gets to hit.

Joc Pederson (LAD) projects as an important punt option on FD. He has a bottom of the barrel price tag and while his hard hit data is in the single digits over the L15 days, he’s hit RHP very well since 2016 (.361 wOBA, .236 ISO). He hasn’t been in the lineup much of late because the Dodgers faced a bunch of LHP this past week, but last night he hit leadoff vs. a RHP.

Ryan Braun (MIL) and Nelson Cruz (SEA) are other sluggers on FD that have cheaper price tags than usual. For Cruz in particular, a $3,100 price tag isn’t one you see for him. He’s at home but gets to face a below average starting pitcher (Bibens-Dirkx) and a below average bullpen. Bibens-Dirkx was awful in 24 appearances in the league last season (12.7% K rate, 5.68 FIP/5.42 xFIP).

Mike Trout (LAA), Mookie Betts (BOS) (if he returns to the lineup) and Bryce Harper (WSH) are the strongest alternatives to Blackmon in tournaments. Blackmon will and should be the highest owned player in this slate, but this trio can outscore him on any given slate. We’re talking about the best (Trout) and perhaps the second (Betts) and third (Harper) best hitters in all of baseball.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are once again the featured offense on the slate as they face Jeff Samardzija who has been a shell of his former self this season. The velocity has been down all season except for one start against the Phillies a few weeks ago. He’s been unable to generate swings outside the strike zone or whiffs in general and the result has been more nibbling, working from behind, and thus walking guys. He’s also not generating as many ground balls which can play up in San Francisco with the big outfield but is a recipe for disaster in Colorado. The Rockies will likely represent the chalk and once again the wide disparity between this tier and the next has us on them as long as ownership doesn’t get really wild.

Tier Two

2) San Francisco Giants

3) Boston Red Sox

The Giants are an intriguing pivot off of the Rockies at likely lower ownership. Kyle Freeland has pitched very effectively this season with a strong combination of soft contact and ground balls, but he doesn’t miss bats. The Giants are better situated to attack LHP with Posey-McCutchen-Longoria and outside of Posey most of these guys should come in with reasonable ownership. A boost to all these RHBs is the loss of Adam Ottavino who went on the DL and leaves mostly LH leverage relievers behind him.

The Red Sox ranking is pretty dependent on the health of Mookie Betts who has sat out of late. If Betts is available, the Red Sox are a nice power pivot off of the Rockies and the Giants who are more dependent on stringing big innings together thanks to Coors larger dimensions whereas the Red Sox RHBs are more likely to deliver power against Marco Estrada.

We do expect these teams to carry some ownership in GPPs but expect they’ll trail the Rockies.

Tier Three

4) Milwaukee Brewers

5) Los Angeles Angels

The Brewers always rate well for us given their event driven offense with stolen bases and home runs. They’re rarely heavily owned and we’d expect light ownership once again. Wacha has been allowing tons of hard contact this year (seven of his 10 starts were above 40 percent hard hit rates) and the Cardinals bullpen behind him is suspect.

The Angels were a big disappointment with the platoon edge on Monday and now they face a similar starter but from the right side. Fulmer’s got a bit of a better reputation but he’s allowed a 36 percent hard hit rate this season and is backed up by the worst bullpen in baseball. We think both the Brewers and Angels will represent low owned contrarian GPP targets.

Tier Four

6) St. Louis Cardinals

 

7) Houston Astros

8) Minnesota Twins

9) New York Yankees

The Astros remain a fun GPP target at likely lower ownership with the Red Sox/Rockies available at high price tags. CC Sabathia has limited hard contact most of the season and the Yankees bullpen is really strong behind him which keeps the Astros ranking in check.

Facebook Comments