Daily Fantasy Rundown – May 2nd MLB DFS
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: No major concerns. Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Derek Norris (SD) – Norris is our top catcher this evening and our model loves him any time he faces a southpaw. Norris has an awesome .375 wOBA and .194 ISO against LHP since 2012. In a small sample size this season (18 ABs), he has continued his dominance against LHP, posting a .278 ISO. It’s also important to note that Norris is hitting a ton of fly balls this season (42 percent), which should generate homeruns. The hitting environment isn’t good (Petco Park) but the matchup should help. Jorge De La Rosa has allowed a .348 wOBA and he’s only struck out 15 percent of RHBs (since 2012). Norris is ranked among our top 50 hitters and the only catcher that’s close is Stephen Vogt. He’s an option in all formats, particularly cash games (accessible price point around the industry).
Next in line:
Stephen Vogt (OAK) – Vogt worked out for us last night against an awful RHP at Globe Life Park in Arlington and we’re going to pick on another below average RHP this evening. I could make the case that Nick Martinez (today’s starter) is worse than Colby Lewis (last night’s starter). Martinez has faced 381 LHBs in his career and he’s allowed a .352 wOBA, 23 percent LD rate, 49 percent FB rate and owns a K rate of 12 percent (11 percent BB rate). Think that’s bad? Martinez has a 3.81 K per 9 this season and even though he’s posted a 0.35 ERA, his 5.19 SIERA tells us what we should know (he’s awful). I’m not going to overcomplicate this recommendation. Vogt is blessed with a great lineup position (third) and the park shift is massive for this Athletics’ offense (from Oakland Coliseum, an extreme pitcher’s park, to Globe Life Park in Arlington, a park that increases LH power by ~ nine percent above the league average). Oakland’s team total should settle around 4.5 runs, which is better than the Padres (team total should settle around 3 to 3.5 runs) but Norris is a better hitter (especially against LHP). Vogt is a good value around the industry and I will likely hedge with both of these top catchers depending on the site I’m playing.