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5/31 MLB DFS: Success measured in Altuves on Sunday

5/31 MLB DFS: Success measured in Altuves on Sunday
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – May 31st MLB DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Glossary: See a term you’re unfamiliar with? Check out our glossary page. If there’s something you’d like to see added there, please email us at help@dailyroto.com.

Weather: Biggest problems today will be the games in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, ie. In BLT, NYC and PHL. A strong cold front is heading into the area and will cause plentiful amounts of showers and thunderstorms. Any game is at risk of seeing delay(s) but because of the rain not being steady, they should try and play all 3 games.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

Top Play:

Evan Gattis (HOU) – You want exposure to the Houston offense today as they carry a team total around five against the awful John Danks. Danks has always been fun to pick on (ERAs last four seasons of 5.70/4.75/4.74) and that has been even more the case this year as his GB rate has fallen from his career mark of 42 percent to just 31.6 percent. Opposing RHBs already had plenty of upside against Danks, who has allowed a .352 wOBA and 1.55 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. The best way to get exposure to the Houston offense is to lock in the top options at the scarce positions (Altuve, Gattis). Gattis is by far the top catcher in our model and a top 30 overall option with a top 10 homerun score. The powerful Gattis has a career .244 ISO against southpaws.

Additional catcher notes: I’m forcing Gattis into all of my cash games but the trio of alternative options in cash are Stephen Vogt (OAK) (platoon edge against Adam Warren who isn’t missing bats; displaying elite peripherals), Russell Martin (TOR) (consistently an option due to a prime lineup spot in a great lineup) and Derek Norris (SD) (low runs coring environment buts hits southpaws very well and Jeff Locke is pedestrian). For tournaments, you could look the way of Wilson Ramos (WAS) (facing a bad pitcher in a great hitter’s park) or Jason Castro (HOU) (will be extremely low owned due to L/L and Gattis being available at catcher but whole Houston offense has big upside).

First Base

Top Play:

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) – Goldschmidt is in a very good hitting environments (Miller Park) squaring off against rookie Ty Wagner, who is making his MLB debut. Wagner has a ZiPS projected .365 wOBA and .219 ISO allowed to RHBs. While that seems overly pessimistic to me, Steamer is also down on Wagner overall, calling for a 4.88 ERA and 1.20 HR/9. Wagner likely won’t miss any bats and Goldschmidt is in a great place right now. He entered the season a top three Fantasy player and now has seen improvements pretty much across the board: better EYE, more loft, running more. In my initial run through on rosters for cash games, I found Goldschmidt to be too expensive since I’m paying up for both pitching and Astros. However, if you are willing to sacrifice one of those things he’s cash game playable despite being expensive and at the very least someone you want tournament exposure to if multi-entering.

Next in line: I didn’t want to spend too much time writing up expensive first basemen since I’m not sure using one is the best way to construct rosters today. However, if you are able to spend a little bit more at first base but not all the way up to Goldschmidt, both Prince Fielder (TEX) and Anthony Rizzo (CHC) need to be considered. We’re seeing the old Fielder as his GB rate dropping from 50.4 to 42.8 and hard hit rate increasing from 26.2 to 38.7 have led to a .212 ISO, indicating last season was truly the result of poor health, which is now behind him. He’s at home hitting for a Rangers team with a run total approaching five. Rizzo has an absurd 12.0 K percentage. It’s crazy how low that is for a power hitter and his 1.04 EYE correlates highly to a .300-plus BA as does his 26.6 LD rate. He’s also running more. Rizzo has a high ceiling with the platoon edge on Jeremy Guthrie (.384 wOBA, 1.74 HR/9 allowed to LHBs since 2012).

Value Play:

Adam LaRoche (CHW) – Due to LaRoche’s elite matchup and a need to save a little bit of money at first base, I find myself clicking LaRoche’s name a lot. LaRoche got off to a pretty horrendous start (he’s a notoriously slow starter), which is why you see such a high 29.9 K percentage. He’s settled in in the month of May though, reducing that K rate to just over 22 percent, which is right in line with his career mark. In fact, his .91 EYE in the month of May is very impressive. LaRoche is hitting the ball on the ground too much, but with the plate discipline numbers fine and his hard hit rate right at career marks, it’s hard to worry about that too much. He’s got a great matchup today as the White Sox boast a team total over four against Roberto Hernandez. Hernandez has allowed a .360 wOBA and 1.36 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012. It’s also important to note that his hard hit rate is up and K rate down, both of which are likely a result of a steep decline in velocity the last two seasons (91.4/90.3/88.7).

Additional first base notes: Mike Napoli (BOS) is another value play option as he’s in Texas with the platoon edge on Wandy Rodriguez, but a recent hot streak has resulted in him being priced well above LaRoche on most sites. Chris Carter (HOU) is an elite tournament option and even someone who can be targeted in cash games if he lands a top five lineup spot. While in most lineups I’d try to stick with one of the aforementioned first basemen, here are some other observations. Lucas Duda (NYM) cold be a nice low owned tournament option. People may balk at the recent price hike, especially with him being in a pitcher’s park but he has elite splits against RHP and faces the struggling David Phelps. Joey Votto (CIN) doesn’t have a matchup I love but the price sure seems too low for holding the platoon edge at home against a pitcher who won’t miss bats. Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) similarly doesn’t have a great hitting environment but continues to have too low of a salary on DraftKings, especially considering Carlos Martinez struggles with LHBs. Chris Davis (BAL) isn’t near the top of my list but he’s almost always a tournament consideration at home with the platoon edge due to his HR upside.

Second Base

Top Play:

Jose Altuve (HOU) – Altuve is the chalkiest of chalk plays today and will be high owned. Don’t make the mistake of worrying about ownership in cash games though. Cash games are more about avoiding mistakes than being bold, and Altuve has a price and matchup that can’t be ignored. We’ve talked about John Danks‘ overall struggles and horrid splits with RHBs. Those lineup perfectly for Altuve who will be hitting second for the highest expected scoring team and has elite splits against LHP: .381 wOBA for his career. As good as that career wOBA is, it’s been over .400 this season and last as Altuve has made overall improvements to his game (improved plate discipline numbers and a slight uptick in power).

Next in line: Dee Gordon (MIA) (Colon has decent peripherals on the season but is not someone to avoid especially with a LHB; Gordon’s price has fallen and he obviously holds elite stolen base upside, making him the best alternative if you want to diversify off of Altuve)

Additional second base notes: Dustin Pedroia (BOS) has a nice matchup in Texas against Wandy Rodriguez (more on him in the outfield write ups). If it wasn’t for opportunity cost, he’d be a great cash game option. Neil Walker (PIT) is not in a high upside environment but is cheap and hitting from his strong side in a matchup against the below average Odrisamer Despaigne. For tournaments, guys I like are Daniel Murphy (NYM) and Luis Valbuena (HOU).

Shortstop

Additional shortstop notes: Shortstop is really gross today. There’s not much reason to pay up for a struggling Troy Tulowitzki (COL) in cash, which leaves us with a series of less than desirable options, none that particularly stands out. You could play Jose Reyes (TOR) who has an okay matchup and is probably a bit underpriced. He’s the safest option from a production standpoint but not a great value in a vacuum (just outside our top 50 overall hitters). There’s also opportunity cost here since you’re paying up at a bad position, which will force you to sacrifice elsewhere. I’ll probably just punt the spot. Marcus Semien (OAK) (not a full punt if you can afford more than the minimum), Jonathan Villar (HOU) (if he has a top six lineup spot), Ruben Tejada (NYM) (hitting second, particularly strong source of salary cap relief on DraftKings) and Xander Bogaerts (BOS) (great offensive environment trumps batting spot at a scarce position, making him cash game playable at the bare minimum on FanDuel).

Third Base

Top Play:

Kris Bryant (CHC) – On a site like FanDuel, where Bryant is clearly more expensive than the third base values, I don’t see any reason to force him. However, on DraftKings, where the value plays are priced up due to their matchups, it makes sense to target Bryant in a similar price range. After a slow start, the power has really started to pick up. Bryant finally got on the HR board on May 9th, and he has hit seven in his last 19 games (starting with that date), leading to a whopping .343 ISO over that time. Both ZiPS and Steamer are calling for 20 HRs over the rest of the season with a .230-plus ISO. Bryant won’t have the platoon edge and Jeremy Guthrie has been tough on RHBs the last several years. However, he’s also still Jeremy Guthrie, the guy with 3.54 K/9 and the second worst GB rate of his career (36.9 percent).

Value Plays:

Adrian Beltre (TEX) – On FanDuel, Beltre serves as a great way to get exposure to a Rangers offense with a very high team total (nearing 5). While Beltre is aging, his batted ball data is in line with career marks for the most part and his contact ability is incredible (single digit K rate). The fact that he puts so many balls in play makes him a really strong Fantasy asset given DFS scoring on most sites (hits outweigh walks a lot of places, RBIs are easier to come by with more balls in play). Opposing pitcher Joe Kelly has certainly been unlucky (ERA 2.25 points higher than xFIP) but when you see the amount of hard contact he’s yielding (33.1 hard hit rate) there are some legit reasons for the struggles.

Yasmany Tomas (ARI) – With Arizona having a high team total facing an underwhelming prospect in his MLB debut, Tomas certainly needs to be considered. His .344 wOBA has been impressive over his first 121 MB PAs. However, I have just enough concern over his profile to go Beltre’s way. Tomas’ wOBA is being driven by good BABIP as he’s not walking (5.0 BB rate) nor displaying much power (.087 ISO) as he’s hitting way too many ground balls (22.8 LD rate). I should note however that both ZiPS and Steamer expect Tomas to more or less have an ISO double his current rate over the rest of the season.

Nolan Arenado (COL) – I overlooked Arenado initially in a R/R matchup outside of Coors, but the pricing on him is pretty friendly. Arenado is having the power breakout anticipated as an improvement in his HR/FB rate (reasonable expectation given his age) has paid off big dividends considering he puts the ball in play a lot and generates plenty of loft. Jerome Williams has really struggled this season (5.33 ERA, projections have him pegged for ERAs near 5 ROS), and anytime I see poor results lining up with a reduction in velocity (average fastball velocity dropped from 92.4 mph in 2013 to 91.4 last year to 89.6 this season) I’m more prone to pick on that particular pitcher.

Additional third base notes: Those four third basemen are the focus of my cash games. Other high upside options are Alex Rodriguez (NYY) (peripherals support his awesome power numbers) and Evan Longoria (TB) (great park shift; good history against Chris Tillman supports Tillman’s reverse splits as he gives up lots of power to same handed hitters).

Outfield

Top Plays:

Bryce Harper (WAS) – Harper is establishing himself as the game’s premiere power threat and now he gets a matchup in Cincinnati (second best MLB park for HRs) against the fly ball oriented Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled mightily to get LHBs out in a very small sample. His price is prohibitive in cash games on FanDuel, but he’s a possibility on DraftKings,

George Springer (HOU) – Springer gives you similar upside to Harper at a reduced price tag across the industry. He’s an “event” player, liable to steal or homer in any game. There’s a good chance he ends up somewhere around 25-30 over a full season in HR-SB. This is a matchup we’ve touched on a few times already for the Houston RHBs and teammate Jake Marisnick makes for a nice tournament option at a cheap price, although his lineup spot keeps him out of the cash game conversation. Both Springer and Harper are among the top five hitter options in our model.

Value Plays:

Hanley Ramirez/Mookie Betts (BOS) – Picking on Wandy Rodriguez has burned us a couple of times this season (including against Boston once) but we aren’t buying his 3.60 ERA at all. ERA estimators put his ERA around 4.25 as he’s had a very fortunate BABIP and strand rate. Both ZiPS and Steamer are even more pessimistic than that as they are calling for more HRs allowed. Looking at Rodriguez’s SwStr rate and hard hit contact allowed, I don’t see much reason for him to continue to surpass those expectations. Hanley Ramirez (eighth ranked option in our model) went a little bit cold after hurting his shoulder but has now homered in two of his three games and brings in a .387 wOBA and .244 ISO against LHP since 2012. He’s very affordable on FanDuel and while he’s expensive on DraftKings, having SS eligibility bolsters his value. Mookie Betts (17th) has solid HR/SB upside and his overall profile is pretty solid despite less than desired results, making me optimistic that he sees the improvements in wOBA that projection systems are calling for rest of season (around .330, currently at .303).

Leonys Martin (TEX) – In the Rangers last game against RHP, Martin (30th) was moved to the leadoff spot. Given him holding the platoon edge, his stolen base upside and the Rangers high team total, he’s the most cost effective way to get exposure to this team should he lead off again. Martin’s .230 BA is obviously not good, but an increase in his BABIP (currently at .264, .317 career mark) is likely moving forward. Teammate Shin-Soo Choo is also viable as his increase in ISO from last season gives us hope he’s fully healthy. Still, his overall profile isn’t great and he’s fairly priced making him someone I’ll use if he fits but not a core target.

Arizona Outfield – Depending on Arizona’s lineup, you could make a case for any of their outfielders as ZiPS projects Ty Wagner to be pretty atrocious against both right and left handed batters. David Peralta and Ender Inciarte will have the platoon edge with the latter having some BA/SB upside and the former a touch more power. Mark Trumbo will not have the platoon edge but actually earns the top HR score in our model today. I’m targeting him on DraftKings where power is rewarded a bit more and the price is pretty middle of the pack.

Josh Reddick (OAK) – While opposing pitcher Adam Warren has been fairly solid at containing LHBs the last few years, it should be noted that he’s not missing bats this season as a full time starter (5.68 K/9). Meanwhile, Reddick has some outstanding peripherals. He’s walking 10.7 percent of the time and remarkably has a slightly lower K rate (10.2 percent). His batted ball data hasn’t changed too much, so Reddick’s solid career .188 ISO has become much more important in line with the big gains in plate discipline. Billy Burns continues to be a good source of cap relief where he’s priced in the bottom 20 percent of outfielders as he possesses stolen base upside and is leading off.

Kevin Kiermaier (TB) – I’m not a fan of Kiermaier’s overall skill set but he holds a lead off spot for the Rays in Camden Yards (favorable hitting environment, big park shift for the Rays offense) against the struggling Chris Tillman. Tillman is consistently falling behind in the count (53.6 F-Strike rate is his worst since 2010), which I think is causing a lot of his problems (4.66 BB/9 is his worst mark also since 2010). While projection systems are down on Kiermaier, he continues to hit for a bit more power than they expect and has a tolerable K rate (15.8 percent this season). Teammate Joey Butler is a worthwhile punt on DraftKings in cash games if he continues to hit second.

Melky Cabrera/Adam Eaton (CHW) – Both Cabrera and Eaton are having disappointing seasons atop the White Sox lineup. However, their prices reflect this, making them low cost options in a great matchup against Roberto Hernandez, whose struggles are documented in LaRoche’s blurb. Some people phase out cold hitters altogether, but Cabrera gives you another minimum priced option to utilize on FanDuel, if you’d rather target an offense with a bit more expected team success than say Kiermaier’s. Cabrera/Eaton are top 50 overall options in our model.

Additional outfield notes: Joc Pederson (LAD) is a great tournament option given his reduction in price and Carlos Martinez‘s problems with LHBs. A low expected scoring game makes him a borderline cash game option with so many other options, though. Some of my favorite tournament options that I haven’t yet mentioned are Giancarlo Stanton (MIA), Josh Hamilton (TEX) and Charlie Blackmon (COL). It’s a bit of a sucker play given how he’s performed, but Matt Kemp (SD) at basically the minimum salary deserves some consideration against a mediocre LHP.

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier One

1) Madison Bumgarner (SF)

2) Danny Salazar (CLE)

Tier Two

3) David Price (DET)

4) Jesse Chavez (OAK)

Tier Three

5) Bartolo Colon (NYM)

6) Carlos Martinez (STL)

7) JA Happ (SEA)

8) Jake Odorizzi (TB)

Tier Four

9) Drew Hutchison (TOR)

10) Matt Shoemaker (LAA)

11) Jeff Locke (PIT)

Tier Five

12) Chase Anderson (ARI)

13) Julio Teheran (ATL)

14) Brett Anderson (LAD)

15) Tsuyoshi Wada (CHC)

Top Play:

Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Bumgarner is an extremely safe option today as he’ll face be pitching from home (best park in MLB for pitchers) against an Atlanta team that ranks 29th in wRC+ against LHP with the fifth highest K percentage (23.4). While not everything is in line for Bumgarner (slightly elevated hard hit rate and line drive/fly ball rates), both ZIPS and Steamer project ROS ERAs just ender 3.00. Part of their reason for optimism is an expected increase in K rate, which makes sense given Bumgarner’s high 10.7 SwStr rate. He’s a huge favorite at -270 and the Atlanta expected run total according to Vegas is somewhere between 2.5 and 3. This is the best choice for cash games on FanDuel.

Next in line:

Danny Salazar (CLE) – While Bumgarner is the safest choice for one starting pitcher sites, if choosing between the two on a multi-SP site such as DraftKings, I’d opt with Salazar. The two are very close in our model, and it makes sense to target Salazar’s risk on DraftKings where you two pitchers comprise your score and the reliance on a win isn’t as heavy. Salazar has an insane 32.2 K percentage and the underlying peripherals (14.0 SwStr rate, 38.1 chase rate) make it reasonable to expect a 30-plus K percentage over the rest of the season. For such a high K pitcher, Salazar has way better control than one would expect, walking just 2.19 batters per 9 on the season and 2.64 for his career. His main weakness is that when he does give up contact, it’s hard contact (33.3 hard hit rate, career 12.6 HR/FB rate), but pitching in Safeco Field should help mitigate this risk. The Mariners are below average in wRC+ against RHP and hold a higher than average K percentage against it.

Value Plays:

Jesse Chavez (OAK) – Chavez is way too cheap on multi-SP site like DraftKings ($6,500) and makes for a very reasonable second starting pitcher in all formats where priced accordingly. He’ll be at home in pitcher friendly Oakland and is showing that last year’s strong season was not a fluke. Sure, Chavez’s sub-3.00 ERA won’t last as he has a 3.87 xFIP, but he once again has a solid K/BB ratio (3.00) with above average K skills (21.7 percent). Chavez is also allowing a lot more soft hit contact (20.5 percent) than he did last season (14.4 percent). At first glance, a matchup against a lefty heavy Yankee lineup seems treacherous, but there are a few factors to consider. First, Chavez is at home in Oakland, which is very friendly to pitchers. Second, with Jacoby Ellsbury hurt and his replacement (Slade Heathcott) also hurt, the Yankee lineup isn’t at full strength. Finally, Chavez has pretty even splits for a RHP. Since 2012, he’s allowed a .297 wOBA and 3.63 xFIP to RHBs and a .307 wOBA and 3.89 xFIP to LHBs. That gap’s a lot tighter than most pitchers. We’d certainly rather not see him face 8-9 LHBs, but this could be a much more daunting task for a pitcher of a different make up.

Bartolo Colon (NYM) – While Colon’s early season allure has worn off with a few very bad starts ballooning his ERA to 4.82, it’s important to take into account his overall body of work. Colon has pounded the strike zone and gotten ahead on hitters quite a bit (70.4 percent), which has led to both an elite BB rate (1.9 percent) and his highest SwStr rate since 2005. I think it’s reasonable to expect a sub-4 ERA out of him over the rest of the season, at least if he’s able to maintain the skills he’s currently demonstrating. As Colon’s K and BB rates have improved, his GB is shrinking a bit, but like with the other written up pitchers, his environment is forgiving (Citi Field). The matchup is also very good as the Marlins are 28th in wRC+ against RHP with the 11th highest K percentage.

Tournament Play:

Drew Hutchison (TOR) – Hutchison has transformed a little bit as a pitcher from last season. I don’t see much in his pitch type to explain it, but it looks like he’s sacrificing missing bats to an extent (reduced chase and SwStr rates) in an effort to be less volatile overall (reduced BB rate, increased GB rate, reduced hard hit rate). The K upside reduction is pretty disappointing, but Hutchison’s new combination of skills makes him safe, despite what the 5.12 ERA says. If you are going to attack the Twins, it makes a lot of sense to do so with RHP as their best hitters are RHBs that mash LHP. As a team they’re 25th in wRC+ against RHP with the sixth highest K rate. Hutchison also gets a very favorable park shift moving from the Rogers Centre to Target Field. I have him as a tournament option since our model puts him just out of the third tier (which is comprised of similarly priced pitched), but I could honestly see using him in cash games on multi-SP sites as well.

Additional starting pitcher notes: David Price (DET) has a lot of upside but both Vegas and current team splits suggest he has a tougher matchup than Madison Bumgarner and it’s at a higher or at least similar cost on most sites. Carlos Martinez (STL) (great K rate, JA Happ (SEA) (home, CLE not built great against LHP, especially if Carlos Santana remains out) and Jake Odorizzi (TB) (very nice K upside, GB rate improvement makes him a bit safer but tough environment/team) are all ranked in a tight cluster in our model and are value play alternatives to Chavez/Colon. My preferred option in tournaments is Chase Anderson (ARI) as he carries a very low cost and would seem to have worthwhile upside against a Brewers team that is heavily right handed and has struggled against RHP this season.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (help@dailyroto.com) if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) Houston Astros

2) Texas Rangers

3) Boston Red Sox

4) Chicago White Sox

5) Arizona Diamondbacks

The top three options are obvious. The Astros face arguably the worst pitcher in action today (Jon Danks), have a bunch of RHBs who crush LHP, lead the MLB in HRs and SBs and have a team total around five. I suggest having exposure to multiple Astros in cash games and they have the most tournament upside as a full stack.

The Rangers also have a team total approaching five in a great environment. They fall behind the Astros stack because there’s less overall value (not as much HR/SB upside throughout the lineup and lack quality players at the scarce positions) and I’m not as confident in Joe Kelly being awful as I am John Danks. Still, this team is turning it around offensively and you’ll want some exposure on FanDuel where the prices aren’t inflated due to environment.

As mentioned in the Betts/Hanley blurb, we aren’t buying the decent start for Wandy Rodriguez. Although the Red Sox lineup has been cold, they are pretty talented and hitting in a great offensive environment.

The White Sox are a less obvious stack. There are other teams I expect to score more, but we also have to account for value when ranking a stack. Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche from a high upside mini-stack with hitters in prime lineup spots for a very, very reasonable price.

The Diamondbacks don’t have a lot of individual value I love, but there’s always upside in picking on a low K prospect making his MLB debut, particularly in an environment that isn’t forgiving for pitchers. Mark Trumbo and Paul Goldschmidt have our top two home run scores, and it’s also important to note how bad the Milwaukee bullpen has been.

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) Washington Nationals

2) Colorado Rockies

3) Tampa Bay Rays

We didn’t hit on a lot of Nationals in the Rundown, so they may get overlooked in tournaments. However, they get a big park shift playing in Cincinnati and opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen has been significantly worse than his current 3.12 ERA indicates (6.15 FIP, 5.00 xFIP). Lorenzen’s extreme fly ball tendencies (39.5 GB rate) and nearly even K:BB ratio could really get him into trouble once the BABIP and strand rates normalize.

The Rockies will likely be low owned outside of Coors Field, but Philadelphia is still a better than average hitter’s park and Jerome Williams is a bad pitcher, who has seen his velocity drop significantly.

The Rays have a bad overall offense, which forces people to look the other way when stacking. However, it’s also a really cheap stack to make, allowing you to get the best pitchers and stack fillers surrounding it. The Rays get a very favorable park shift hitting in Camden Yards, and Chris Tillman has been a mess this season (5.59 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 5.10 xFIP).

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.

MIA at NYM 1:10: Showers and thunderstorms around. 40-60% chance of delays but I think they try and play this game. Temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. Air density is a 7 or 8. Wind southwest 10-20 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7 or 8.

WSH at CIN: Just an out side chance of a shower or thunderstorm, 10% chance. Temps in the mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind northwest 10-20 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7 or 8.

COL at PHL: Showers and thunderstorms around. 40-60% chance of delays but I think they try and play this one as the rain is not steady. temps in the low to mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 10-20 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 or 8.

TB at BLT: Showers and thunderstorms around. 40-60% chance of delay(s) but I think they will get this in because the rain is not steady. Temps in the mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 10-20 mph which blows out to center. The wind is 7 or 8.

CWS at HOU 2:10: Retractable roof. A scattered shower or thunderstorm means the roof will likely be closed.

TOR at MIN 2:10: A 20% chance of a period of light rain late in the game should not cause big problems. Temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. Air density is a 5. Wind northwest 10-20 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

AZ at MIL 2:10: Retractable roof. Dry. temps in the mid 60s so I will assume the roof will be open. Air density is a 6. Wind north at 10-20 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 2 or 3.

LAD at STL 2:15: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s. Air density is a 6 or 7. Wind north 8-16 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 3.

KC at CHC 2:20: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s. Wind north at 8-16 mph which blows in from left-center. The wind is a 3.

BOS at TEX 3:05: A 10-20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm, not a big deal. Temps in the low 80s. Air density is an 7 or 8. Wind southwest 6-12 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

NYY at OAK 4:05: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is a 7 or 8.

ATL at SF 4:05: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is a 7 or 8.

CLE at SEA: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the upper 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west 7-14 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7.

DET at LAA 8:05: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s falling to near 60. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 or 8.

PIT at SD 9:10: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

MLB Daily Analysis

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