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May 7 MLB DFS: Getting Conforto with the Stras Man
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Welcome to May 7 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for May 7 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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May 7 MLB DFS Position Timestamps

00:42 Starting Pitcher
09:19 Catcher
11:07 First Base
13:57 Second Base
16:19 Third Base
19:02 Shortstop
21:28 Outfield
25:33 Stacks

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  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

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Range of Outcome Projections

May 7 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

Stephen Strasburg (WAS) is the only good DFS starting pitcher on this slate. He also has a tremendous matchup against the Wil Myers-less Padres’ in San Diego which is a park upgrade for Strasburg. He has the lowest implied total against on the slate and is the second heaviest favorite. The price tag is a nuisance but the opportunity cost is large. Play Strasburg in cash games and it’s difficult to even find good reasons to fade him in GPPs – especially on DraftKings where you have to choose two starters.

After Strasburg, we have Dallas Keuchel (HOU) and Kyle Hendricks (CHC) who are both better real life starting pitchers than they are DFS pitchers. They get ground balls and limit runs but they don’t generate a ton of strikeouts. Both have really intriguing matchups as Hendricks faces a Marlins’ lineup that ranks 30th in wRC+ against and he gets them in sub-60 degree weather in Wrigley with a slight wind blowing in. It’s ideal pitching weather for Hendricks who is the biggest favorite on the slate (-235).  Keuchel faces an Athletics’ offense that is stout against LHP (sixth in wRC+ against LHP) but also strikes out at an above average clip (24.2 percent). On DraftKings, the challenge with both pitchers is they’re priced aggressively. The goal at SP is always to maximize strikeout projection per dollar spent and neither pitcher projects for enough strikeouts to justify a mid-$9,000s price tag. They are the pitchers you will feel “safest” about and DraftKings pricing is so bad on hitters that it’s not impossible to pair them. On FanDuel, Hendricks is probably one of the better pivots from Strasburg in GPPs given a softer price tag.

Our optimals prefer jamming in more offense than a Strasburg plus Keuchel/Hendricks lineup will allow. The preferred route is through John Gant (STL) who is making a spot start for Adam Wainwright. Gant has been starting in the minors and he’s gone over 100 pitches a few times so he should be fully stretched out. He’s a home favorite (-138) with a solid implied total against (3.9) that is competitive with Keuchel. Also like Keuchel/Hendricks he’s more of a ground ball guy (51 percent in AAA this year) than a strikeout guy (17.7 percent) but he doesn’t have the strong command of Keuchel/Hendricks to generate better run prevention. With one of Keuchel/Hendricks you can get most of the bats you want on this slate. With Gant, you can get all of them.

Pitcher pricing is the real challenge on this slate as it tends to limit options. Alongside Gant, P.J. Conlon (NYM) is in a similar spot start mode with similar minor league performance but gets a much tougher pitching environment (in Cincinnati) to adapt. He’s a pivot off of Gant in GPPs. Tyson Ross (SD) and Jeff Samardzija (SF) have shown strikeout stuff in the past but Ross has a difficult matchup and Samardzija has lost nearly 3 mph on his fastball this year – looking like a different pitcher. Fernando Romero (MIN) had a great debut with the Twins but is priced aggressively. There just isn’t much to get excited about.

Catcher

James McCann (DET) represents our top value at the catcher position and carries the second highest projection at the position. He’s on the road in Arlington facing Matt Moore, who’s painfully bad. He’s coming off a start in which he allowed 10 earned runs. 10. Since 2016, McCann has generated a .394 wOBA and .272 ISO (269 PAs). With the platoon edge we expect him to hit in the middle of the lineup. He’s our preferred target at the position.

As far as alternatives go, Evan Gattis (HOU) and Devin Mesoraco (CIN) are viable. They’ll have the platoon edge in their respective matchups and they have strong ISO baselines in that split. 

Willson Contreras (CHC) and Buster Posey (SF) aren’t that far off from McCann’s projection but they come with appropriate price tags. In fact, Posey leads the position with the top projection but it’s not by a significant margin. They project as overspends in this slate but frankly most of the position projects that way. They’re viable in tournaments.

First Base

Brandon Belt (SF) is the top projected scorer at first base. He has a matchup against Zach Eflin. The latter has allowed a massive .296 ISO to LHBs since 2016 and he really struggles to miss bats. Belt has been swinging a hot stick this season (27% HHR) as well as over the L15 (33%). Belt is also on the road in Philadelphia, which is a much friendlier hitting environment compared to AT&T Park.

Joey Gallo (TEX) carries the second highest projection at first base on DK where he’s 1B eligible. He has a matchup against Michael Fulmer, who’s been able to handle LHBs well. However, he’s only generated a 17.6% K rate against them since 2016. That’s key for Gallo’s value, as he’ll swing and miss a ton but when he connects it’s usually via the long ball. Gallo’s price tag feels appropriate but it’s not difficult to fit him or Brandon Belt on DK.

The rest of the position isn’t all that exciting. Joey Votto (CIN) has a L/L matchup and is very pricey. Victor Martinez (DET) and Carlos Santana (CLE) are cheaper alternatives that you can consider. Martinez’s upside is questionable at this point of his career but he has a matchup against Matt Moore. We’ve continued to hit on Santana’s strong batted ball profile this season but he has yet to capitalize. We continue to like him in tournaments. His price tag is cheap on FD and that puts him in the cash game conversation as well. Adrian Gonzalez (NYM) is $2,500 on FD, which is an accurate price tag for where he’s at in his career. He does have a favorable matchup against Homer Bailey in Cincinnati, so he’s usable on that site.

Yuli Gurriel (HOU) and Jose Martinez (STL) (on DK) are additional targets to consider in tournaments. They don’t have exciting contexts but their price tags are cheap.

Second Base

Jose Altuve (HOU) and Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) represent the top projected scorers at second base. Altuve is pricey as expected, but with the platoon edge he can be considered in tournaments. Cabrera is projecting highly in this slate because he has a matchup against Homer Bailey in Great American Ball Park. Unfortunately, his price tag is very appropriate as well. You could still reach for him across all formats on DK but on FD it’ll be too difficult to fit him in cash games.

Matt Carpenter (STL) projects just below the options above but he’s priced very differently. As a result, he’ll be a bigger part of our optimal lineups on both sites. Carpenter will have a matchup against rookie Fernando Romero, who projects to have an ERA over five ROS.

Javier Baez (CHC), Cesar Hernandez (PHI), Jurickson Profar (TEX) are viable targets in tournaments. Of this group, we’ll have to side with Baez for upside.

Third Base

Kris Bryant (CHC) carries the top projection at third base. Bryant will have the platoon edge against youngster Jarlin Garcia, who’s an easy regression candidate moving forward. Garcia has a below average K rate, walk rate, GB rate and carries an ERA under two. The only challenge with Bryant on DK is fitting his high price tag if you don’t play a punt SP. It’s not impossible but he projects as a slight overspend on that site. He’s more affordable on FD where the rest of the position is priced very efficiently.

Jeimer Candelario (DET) is only $500 cheaper than Bryant on FD but projects as a better per dollar value with a similar projection. That can be attributed to his context, as he’s in Arlington facing Matt Moore and likely hitting second. Even Todd Frazier (NYM) projects as a viable alternative on FD. Like Candelario, Frazier’s projection is benefitting from his context (on the road in Great American Ball Park and facing Homer Bailey).

On DK, you can go cheaper with Matt Carpenter (STL) at the position and roster Asdrubal Cabrera at 2B.

Alex Bregman (HOU) is another potential target to consider in tournaments as he’ll have the platoon edge in his matchup against Brett Anderson. It’s not an exciting matchup but he’s usable in a condensed slate.

Shortstop

Trea Turner (WSH) is the top projected scorer at the shortstop position. Turner has a matchup against Tyson Ross, who’s very slow to the plate and struggles to control the running game as a result. Turner is pricey but there’s not much else we like at the position and it’s not difficult to fit him on DK if you roster a punt SP next to Strasburg. Carlos Correa (HOU) is the other pricey shortstop that deserves consideration in tournaments.

FD is a different story as fitting Turner on that site will prove to be difficult. On that site, Jurickson Profar (TEX) is making his way into optimals with a cheap price tag. We’re not in love with this selection as Profar isn’t very good offensively, but he gets good lineup spots and is a switch hitter in the best hitting environment in this slate. The other punt shortstop to consider on FD is Amed Rosario (NYM), who’s just $2,300. Rosario doesn’t get good lineup spots, but his context is also very strong. These two are also viable on DK.

Brandon Crawford (SF) has been incredible of late, and his string of strong performances are backed up by a 31.6% HHR over the L15. Of this group of cheap shortstops, Crawford represents our favorite tournament target and he should be considered in cash games on FD.

Outfield

Nicholas Castellanos (DET), Bryce Harper (WSH) and Michael Conforto (NYM) carry the top projections in the outfield and have very similar projections. When that’s the case, we’ll let price tags guide us. Harper is deservingly the most expensive hitter on this slate, but he projects as an overspend tonight. We think he’s worthy of tournament consideration. Castellanos and Conforto are priced differently. Conforto in particular is severely underpriced. He’s just $3,400 on DK and $3,100 on FD. The DK price tag is egregious. He’ll hit third against Homer Bailey, who’s only striking out 13% of batters and has allowed a 1.83 HR/9 this season. Conforto will be very popular tonight, but you should still have exposure to him in all formats. Castellanos has an incredible context as well and should be considered in both cash games and tournaments.

The OF values tonight are very defined. Brandon Nimmo and Jay Bruce (NYM) project strongly and have affordable price tags. Gregor Blanco (SF) is still priced below $3k on DK and has a matchup against Zach Eflin. Even Leonys Martin (DET), who doesn’t have the platoon edge in his matchup against Matt Moore, is projecting as a top five OF value on FD. That’s because Moore sucks against everyone and Martin is a leadoff hitter. Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo (TEX) are other options with the platoon edge that can be considered on both sites.

Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera (PHI) are viable options in tournaments. They’ll have a matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who’s lost some velocity and has allowed tons of hard contact in every one of his three starts this season. Adam Duvall (CIN) is another target to consider in tournaments as he’ll have the platoon edge in one of the better hitting environments in this slate.

Stacks

Tier One

1. New York Mets

The Mets are without Yoenis Cespedes but barely lose a step with Brandon Nimmo stepping in. Homer Bailey has allowed a 42.1 hard hit rate this season while losing ground balls, strikeouts, and velocity from last year’s performance. Bailey doesn’t have much margin for error and the Reds bullpen behind contains only one LHP and a slew of below average righties. It’s an ideal matchup for the Mets lefties who are getting a monstrous park bump in their favor. We’re comfortable with Mets stacks in both cash games and GPPs.

Tier Two

2) Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are getting a modest park boost and facing Matt Moore who projects as one of the weakest starters on the slate. The Tigers offense is thin without Miguel Cabrera but they’re also cheap. We expect they’ll be relatively popular given the high implied total and the matchup with Matt Moore – but we’re more inclined to mini-stack or take pieces from the offense than full stack.

Tier Three

3) Cincinnati Reds

4) San Francisco Giants

5) Houston Astros

6) Philadelphia Phillies

7) Texas Rangers

8) Chicago Cubs

The third tier is filled with teams that have contrarian potential on this slate.  The Reds are a deeper offense and likely go a bit under-owned on this slate. They have been above average against LHP (103 wRC+) but haven’t hit for a ton of power as Adam Duvall hasn’t gotten going and Eugenio Suarez was hurt for a while. P.J. Conlon has been fly-ball oriented in the minors which is a difficult way to succeed in Cincinnati.

The Giants have been red hot taking advantage of a weaker Braves’ bullpen and piling up runs in Atlanta. Now they get a similar matchup in a friendly hitter environment against Zach Eflin and a poor Phillies’ bullpen behind him. The Giants recent success may carryover some ownership but we think it’s warranted.

The Astros once again have some contrarian appeal in a difficult ballpark against a ground ball specialist in Brett Anderson. The A’s bullpen behind Anderson can be exploited and the Astros are the most talented offense on this slate by a wide margin.

The Phillies face a potentially broken Jeff Samardzija who has lost almost 3 mph on his fastball and is walking way more batters than ever before. The Phillies will come with almost no ownership and make for an intriguing contrarian target.

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