Welcome to May 7 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for May 7 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
May 7 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:24 Starting Pitcher
14:16 First Base
18:55 Second Base
21:46 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
May 7 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
The two starting pitcher values we like most on Sunday’s main slate vary in almost every imaginable way, beginning with price. Despite being the most expensive pitcher on the board, Chris Sale (BOS) rates as our top value on both sites given a gaudy projection and a 9.6 K projection that is even higher than what we pegged Scherzer with the other day. We know Sale won’t strike out 37.5% of batters faced as he is now, but he did K 32.1% two seasons ago. We’re inching his K rate baselines up a bit with each dominant start. Not surprisingly, Sale is the largest favorite on the slate with the lowest IRTA (3.3).
The other value is much cheaper and way more volatile than Sale: Tyler Glasnow (PIT). Glasnow’s wildness (7.40 BB/9) means he’s liable to blow up in any single start (6.97 ERA). However, he shouldn’t be quite so wild moving forward. A small decrease in walks along with his high K rate will lead to at least some consistency moving forward. He’ll face a high upside Brewers team, but one that Ks a lot (third highest K% against RHP) and has a large negative delta on their 15-day Hard%.
On the early slate on DK, we like pairing Sale and Glasnow together. However, if you’re afraid of Glasnow’s volatility, you could look the way of Trevor Cahill (SD) (a risky skill set as well but the K rate has been great and supported this season) or Alex Cobb (TB) (less K upside, but Jays are 26th in wRC+ against RHP) who both have lower IRTA (3.7).
A very cheap pivot is to Mike Clevinger (CLE), who will draw the start for Cleveland. Clevenger is not good but will at least miss some bats, and the Royals anemic offense (27th in wRC+ against RHP, one of the lower team Hard% on the slate) mitigates some of the risk associated with his skill set.
Either way, Sale is an absolute lock on DK where there’s not much offense you feel like you have to squeeze in.
Over on FD, the strategy is different because the Coors Slate is included. On that site, Glasnow is so cheap ($6,200), that he might be worth the risk, but we’ve been here before with Glasnow on a Coors slate. Cobb and Cahill are still pivots but will cost you more here, and Clevinger is not available on the slate. Sale is still a tremendous value on FD, and it’s reasonable to want to build around him in cash games, even if it does cost you Coors exposure. Ultimately, it’s tough to pass on Sale’s dominance at a more predictable position, but you can see why it’s not a clear-cut decision.
The catcher position is completely barren of positive values in this slate, and it’s a position we’re looking to fill out last.
Russell Martin (TOR) has a R/R matchup, but he’s been hitting third lately and he’s not difficult to fit on DK where he’s $3.3K. Martin is the only C option that’s close to being a positive value in this slate.
On FD, we’d rather push for more salary relief. Salvador Perez (KC) looks competent at $2.9k (hits fifth, has power upside – .180 ISO baseline in our projections vs. RHP), but if punts like Ryan Hanigan (COL) or Sandy Leon (BOS) get the nod behind the plate we’d rather go in that direction in cash games.
If you’re in need of more salary relief on DK, Yan Gomes (CLE) will have the platoon edge and he’s sub $3k. The matchup is subpar (Danny Duffy) and Gomes hits towards the bottom of the lineup, but the cheap price keeps him in the mix.
The Coors Field game has been included on FD, where Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) once again rates as our top ranked hitter regardless of position. Goldy is very expensive, but the route to fit him is going cheap at SP.
On DK, the expensive 1B to consider is Ryan Zimmerman (WSH). Yes, he rates as a negative value in our projections, but those aren’t accounting how hard Zimmerman is hitting the ball (47.4% HHR over L15 – highest mark of any hitter in the league). That hard hit rate is translating to incredible performances – Zimmerman has now generated double digit DK points in each of his last 12 games.
It’s also possible to go cheap at the position on both sites. On FD, you can do it with Edwin Encarnacion (CLE). Danny Duffy is a good pitcher, but he’s not Kershaw – he’s allowed a .181 ISO to RHBs
On DK, Josh Bell (PIT) and Kendrys Morales (TOR) are both sub $3.5k and their favorable results lately are accompanied by strong hard hit rates. These two are also in play on FD where they’re slightly cheaper than Encarnacion. Justin Smoak (TOR) can be considered as well at an even cheap price tag, but it depends on where he hits (viable if hitting fifth).
Matt Carpenter (STL) is a little more expensive than Bell and Morales, but he leads the position in HHR delta. He’s viable in all formats.
In tournaments, Jose Abreu (CWS) has generated a 35% HHR over the L15, and the matchup against Chris Tillman is favorable given his reverse splits. Tillman is also making his first start of the season and he allowed 13 runs in three rehab starts in the minors.
Daniel Murphy (WSH) and DJ LeMahieu (COL) are top projected scorers that are in play in tournaments, but too expensive to consider in cash games. LeMahieu is the exception on FD where he’s $3.6k.
We’d rather go cheaper at the position on both sites. Brad Miller (TB) will have the platoon edge vs. relief pitcher Joe Biagini, who’s unlikely to pitch deep into this game. Miller is sub $4k on DK where he’s a viable cash game target.
On FD, Jonathan Villar (MIL) is a viable alternative to LeMahieu. It’s a downgrade in environment for this Brewers’ offense, but Glasnow is very slow to the plate and he can be wild (at least two walks in each of his five starts – 15.5% BB rate and he was wild in the minors too). If Villar gets on base he could have a field day. Villar stole 62 bases last season, and ZiPS is projecting 35 the ROS.
Kolten Wong (STL) has been leading off lately and he’s just $3.5k on DK.
Nolan Arenado (COL) headlines this position on FD where he’s available. He’s viable across all formats, but Jake Lamb (ARI) with the platoon edge is a competent alternative.
It’s possible to go a bit cheaper with another high upside 3B on FD. Manny Machado (BAL) is nearly $1k cheaper than the options above, and he’ll have the platoon edge. It’s a tougher matchup (Jose Quintana), but the cheaper price tag and recent form (we kept saying that he was about to get hot, well he homered again last night – four HRs in L6 games) makes him a strong alternative.
If you’re going after Chris Sale on FD, you’ll have to ditch the targets above and roster Evan Longoria (TB), who’s $2.8k.
Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but Mike Moustakas (KC) strikes us as underpriced on DK where he’s $3.6k. Mike Clevinger allowed a 1.36 HR/9 last season, and he doesn’t keep the ball in the ground much (38.7% GB rate last season – very similar to his minor league GB rates). The only other viable alternative in cash games at the position on DK is a fully priced Machado.
Travis Shaw (MIL) and Anthony Rendon (WSH) are viable pivots from Moustakas in tournaments.
Trea Turner (WSH) is our top ranked SS, but he’s too expensive to consider in cash games. Turner is viable in tournaments.
We’re trying to go cheap at SS on both sites. Tim Anderson (CWS) would be the perfect fit on FD where he’s $2.5k. We don’t need Anderson to hit leadoff (though that would be great for his value), but rather just have a competent lineup spot.
With Jose Martinez hurt, it’s possible that Aledmys Diaz (STL) returns to the top of the lineup. If that’s the case, he would be our lean on DK where you don’t have to punt the position completely.
Francisco Lindor (CLE) and Xander Bogaerts (BOS) are more expensive pivots to consider in tournaments.
Having Coors Field exposure in the outfield isn’t difficult on FD if you go cheap at SP, and they represent our top ranked outfielders. Charlie Blackmon (COL) and David Peralta (ARI) would be our leans for their respective offenses, but Carlos Gonzalez (COL) (has missed two straight games with this calf issue) is also in play at an affordable price tag ($3.6k). We’d rather have exposure to A.J. Pollock (ARI) in tournaments since he’s more expensive than the trio above, but he can be considered in cash games as well as the road leadoff hitter in Coors.
Bryce Harper (WSH) has missed the last couple of games with a groin issue. He’s our second ranked OF and the park shift is favorable, so if he ends up playing you can consider him in all formats on DK despite the full price tag.
It’s possible to go full Coors in the OF on FD if you use Glasnow, but if you’re priority is Sale you’ll need salary relief in at least two OF spots. Josh Reddick (HOU), Joey Rickard (BAL) (PH risk but you’ll have to eat it at the a minimum price) and Corey Dickerson (TB) represent our main value after Coors.
On DK where there is no Coors, it’s an easier decision to go after Dickerson, Rickard, Christian Yelich (MIA) and Michael Conforto (NYM). Conforto’s price tag is on the rise, but he’ll have the platoon edge in another plus matchup against a pitcher that doesn’t miss bats. We’re also including Andrew Benintendi (BOS) in this tier of values. Benintendi hit cleanup for the first Red Sox onslaught of the season yesterday (11 runs), and he’ll have the platoon edge vs. Ervin Santana who’s pitching over his head (0.66 ERA/4.11 xFIP).
Mookie Betts (BOS) is another high upside OF that is worthy of tournament consideration. He’s unlikely to see big ownership on the road.
1) Colorado Rockies
2) Arizona Diamondbacks
For the first time in this series, the home side of Coors Field edges out the road side, but it’s a minute difference. The Diamondbacks do carry a touch more risk than the Rockies as Tyler Chatwood is a heavy GB pitcher who induces weak contact when he’s going right. The flip side of that is the Diamondbacks lead all teams on this slate in 15-day Hard%. Ultimately, though, these teams have IRTs around a full run higher than any other game. Ownership may actually be kept in line on FD because of the presence of Sale.
3) Washington Nationals
The Nationals trail only the Diamondbacks in 15-day Hard%, get a positive park shift, and face Jeremy Hellickson, whose peripherals scream danger right now. Yes, it’s only six starts, but Hellickson has a current career low GB rate and K% (9.5%). The velocity is down a touch, and he’s not generating swinging strikes. On top of this, the Phillies bullpen has the highest FIP in MLB.
4) Houston Astros
5) Boston Red Sox
6) Chicago White Sox
7) St. Louis Cardinals
8) Milwaukee Brewers
The White Sox are an interesting contrarian stack on FD in particular, where it’s possible to stack them with Sale. They face Chris Tillman making his season debut. Tillman has a Steamer projected 4.81 ERA and 1.41 HR/9. It’s a good hitter’s park, and the White Sox are guaranteed a full nine innings worth of at bats on the road.
Heading into last night, the Cardinals had a high positive delta on their 15-day Hard% and turned in another good performance. Atlanta’s new park has been playing more hitter friendly than we expected. Atlanta has the third worst bullpen ERA this season, and RA Dickey has been homer prone through five starts.