MLB DFS: deNumbers Don’t Lie, deGrom Is deBest Pitcher Tonight
As a reminder, the focus of the “Going All In” piece each week is finding the high priced DFS players that are worth your time. I’ll give you the best “hand” of four players that make it worthwhile for you to push in your chips and give you a fifth player/river card that’s cheap and helps use the high priced players (prices used from FantasyAces.com).
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Jacob deGrom ($8,000) – It’s deGrom at home. You have to use him. We’re looking at a 1.57 ERA and .214 wOBA against for deGrom in Citi Field with a 28.5 K%. In addition, after a semi-slow start for deGrom, he’s posted a 2.08 ERA, 147 Ks in 134.1 IP and a measly 0.67 HR/9 since May 16. The Marlins also have a league worst .291 wOBA and 80 wRC+ against righties. deGrom is worth every penny.
Bryce Harper ($6,000) – Whoa that’s pricey, but it is Harper against one of the league’s worst pitchers (Dave Buchanan) in a sandbox of a park (Citizen’s Bank). Harper has 31 of his 37 home runs off righties with a 1.185 OPS, .486 wOBA and 213 wRC+. Meanwhile, Buchanan is allowing lefties to hit .346 with a .438 wOBA… heck, Buchanan lets everyone hit well against him.
Miguel Cabrera ($5,900) – Cabrera cares not for righty/lefty splits. He’ll crush any pitcher with no regard for matchups. Well, in this case, the matchup actually points to Cabrera being especially good. As mentioned, the R/L situation matters not as Cabrera faces righty Phil Hughes. Well, we don’t often mention BvP numbers, but Cabrera does have 36 ABs against Hughes and has a .472/.486/1.028 triple slash against him. Hughes has a 9.88 ERA in his last three starts with five homers in 13.2 IP. In fact, Hughes is serving up homers on a platter this season with 28 in 23 starts!
Jayson Heyward ($5,050) – Heyward has turned into the hitter everyone hoped for in the second half. He’s hitting .324 with a .372 wOBA and 125 wRC+ plus 10 stolen bases added to his 28 Runs and 22 RBI. As expected, he’s hitting righties better with a .301 AVG and 10 of his 11 home runs this year off them and gets Ariel Pena in just his second MLB start. Pena had nice strikeout numbers through the minors but regular had a high ERA and gave up his fair share of homers.
River Card (cheap option to make lineup work)
Josh Reddick ($4,750) – What kind of pitcher does Reddick hit? Righties! Reddick faces Jeff Samardzija tonight, who has been disappointing for most of the season. With that, Samardzija is allowing the most home runs since 2010, which is a big reason behind his 4.89 ERA. So is the fact that he has a career low K/9 at 6.97 in his full MLB seasons. Samardzija’s home plus versus lefties numbers are the worst of all four splits, as he has a .366 wOBA and .528 SLG% in that situation with the most homers allowed at 10 (26 total). Reddick presents nice salary relief tonight.