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7/3 MLB DFS: Play O’s, Danks me later

7/3 MLB DFS: Play O’s, Danks me later
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – MLB DFS Picks | July 3

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Glossary: See a term you’re unfamiliar with? Check out our glossary page. If there’s something you’d like to see added there, please email us at help@dailyroto.com.

Weather: Games to watch weatherwise in WSH, PIT, CIN, ATL and TEX but I am NOT concerned about a cancellation.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

Top Play:

Matt Wieters (BAL) – Wieters hasn’t been playing in back to back games at all so I won’t spend a lot of time here in case he does rest (it’s absurd to me the Orioles aren’t more strategic in which games he does and doesn’t play as this would be the second weak LHP he misses this week). If he is in the lineup, he’s the clear-cut top catcher option and a tremendous value as he’s in one of the best parks for right-handed power (US Cellular Field), has crushed LHP since 2012 (.371 wOBA, .232 ISO) and faces the horrific John Danks (.357 wOBA, 1.54 HR/9 allowed to RHBs since 2012).

Value Play:

Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – I hate to seem repetitive as today’s catcher options mirror the options throughout the week, but Lucroy, who we view as underpriced or at least fairly priced (peripherals getting in line, great lineup spot), is once again in an elite matchup. He doesn’t hold the platoon edge, but faces a bad RHP in Michael Lorenzen and is playing in Great American Ballpark, one of the few parks in the big league that serves as an upgrade over Lucroy’s home park. Lorenzen, despite the 3.38 ERA, has been rather awful all-around, posting below average marks in K rate, BB rate, GB rate and HR/FB rate. He holds a 5.64 FIP and 4.94 xFIP, and the Brewers have a healthy team total around 4.5 this evening. Lucroy is a top 30 overall hitter in our model, second only to Wieters (top 10) among catcher eligible players.

Cheap Plays:

Josh Phegley (OAK) – On FanDuel, both of our recommended cheap plays are more aggressively priced making them better tournament options. However, on DraftKings they offer meaningful cap relief and a discount to Wieters and Lucroy, which makes them very valuable on a day where you should be paying up for Clayton Kershaw in cash games. Phegley hits fifth against LHP. The matchup isn’t amazing, but it’s a plus as JA Happ has allowed a .329 wOBA and more than a homer per 9 to RHBs since 2012. It’s pretty amazing the amount of Oakland hitters who are showcasing peripherals well better than expected heading into the season. Part of that is due to hitters being put in good positions by how often Oakland platoons guys. Phegley is one of these players as his solid .280/.333/.523 triple slash is buoyed by a 179 wRC+ and .239 ISO against LHP. It’s dangerous to over rely on one-year splits as the sample size is small, but the hard hit data and plate discipline back up what Phegley is doing and the cheap price tag mitigates risk.

Welington Castillo (ARI) – The Diamondbacks have a team total around 5 runs tonight as they take on Kyle Kendrick, who has been absolutely putrid. It’s rare to see a starting pitcher over this many starts (16) continue to hold his job with such poor performance (6.07 ERA, 6.28 FIP, 5.08 xFIP). While some of that is Coors related, Kendrick is allowing a very high hard hit rate (35.1 percent), not missing bats (11.4 K percentage) and allowing a lot of aerial contact (just a 38.5 GB rate). That’s a heck of a dangerous combination wherever you pitch, and while Chase Field is not Coors Field, it’s not a very forgiving park for pitchers either. With Castillo hitting fifth or sixth most nights, this is a great way to get relatively cheap exposure to the Diamondbacks offense while simultaneously making it easier to fit in Kershaw.

Additional catcher notes: Salvador Perez (KC) is another secondary value option and a great cheap play on FanDuel where Phegley and Castillo are priced a bit more aggressively. He has solid splits against LHP and faces the HR prone Tommy Milone. The only concern here is that with Eric Hosmer back, Perez has bumped back down to seventh in the lineup, rather than fifth, which really drags down his value for cash games. Victor Martinez (DET) is catcher eligible on FanDuel and has a positive matchup against Drew Hutchison; he’s a secondary value there. Jason Castro (HOU) pops as a nice tournament option on all sites. Justin Masterson historically struggles with LHBs, and despite the success he had after being activated off of the DL, he did not show improvement in regards to his velocity.

First Base

Top Play: Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (absurd peripherals and home facing possibly the worst SP in action makes Goldschmidt an elite tournament option, but he’s simply too expensive for cash games and impossible to pair with Kershaw, who we are placing the highest priority on)

Value Plays:

David Ortiz (BOS) – Quick side note: If you ever have a chance to compete for a $1million grand prize, don’t start Dan Straily. It will lead to heavy drinking, sorrow and harassment (well-deserved) on Twitter. However, if you’re setting cash game and tournament lineups tonight don’t hesitate to pick on Dan Straily. Straily has a career 4.54 ERA as his above average strikeout skills are more than offset by wildness and fly balls. For his career, he’s allowed 1.37 HR/9 and 1.73 last season. He’ll make his 2015 debut tonight and will do so against a tough Red Sox offense. Straily should particularly struggle against the LHBs, as he’s allowed a .337 wOBA and 1.55 HR/9 to them over his career. Enter David Ortiz who has one of our model’s highest HR scores and rates as a top 5 overall hitting option. Ortiz has mashed RHP since 2012 (.407 wOBA, .279 ISO) and he continues to do so this season, despite a slow start (.387 wOBA, .258 ISO). The best part about Ortiz is he’s pretty affordable (especially on FanDuel), even if spending on Kershaw.

Joey Votto (CIN) – Votto is a dominant offensive player as evidence by his .87 EYE, 33.9 hard hit rate, 23.3 LD rate and 1.4 IFFB rate. He’s one of the toughest outs in the game, and he’s in a great spot today at home against Mike Fiers. Fiers’ skill set is not built for a home run have such as Great American Ballpark. He has a career GB rate of just 34.8 percent and a HR/FB rate of 10.5 percent, which is slightly higher than the MLB average. What makes my eyes pop in particular in this matchup is how much hard hit contact Fiers is allowing (39.6 percent). That’s the highest mark in the league, and it’s not really close. That weakness lines up well with Votto’s strength (consistent quality contact), meaning you’re likely to get multiple hard hit balls from Votto tonight, making him a good cash game option. If having to chose between Votto and Ortiz, I’d side with Ortiz but it’s close enough where I may diversify across the industry based on price.

Tournament Plays:

Chris Davis (BAL) – With so many options tonight, people will likely auto-dismiss Davis due to a L/L matchup, but he still possesses the power upside to win you a tournament, especially if you can get him at a single digit ownership percentage. While the L/L matchup is less than ideal, there are a few other factors to consider. Davis’s biggest problem against LHP is horrendous plate discipline, but when he does make contact it’s hard hit and in the air. Opposing pitcher John Danks hasn’t exactly dominated same handed matchups, posting a .334 wOBA and 1.13 HR/9 allowed to LHBs since 2012. Furthermore, the ballpark and expected team success around Davis (team total of 4.5, pushing 5) will create a lot of good opportunities for him.

Adam Lind (MIL) – Lind continues to be priced in line with or even more expensive than better overall hitters, which will cause reduced ownership. However, it’s not like Lind isn’t a good hitter. He has a .387 wOBA and .206 ISO against RHP since 2012 and is having a particularly strong season as both his EYE (.57, career mark of .40) and hard hit rate (39.0, career mark of 35.0) exceed his career averages. Lind is in a really good spot today as he holds the platoon edge in Great American Ballpark over Michael Lorenzen. I discussed Lorenzen’s overall lack of skills in Lucroy’s blurb, and he’s been particularly atrocious against LHBs in a small sample size (.417 wOBA, 2.11 HR/9).

Additional first base notes: If you need to save money in cash games at first base, Adam LaRoche (CHW) is an option. He has good splits against RHP and is home in a very favorable hitter’s park. However, Ubaldo Jimenez has been pitching really well and opportunity cost is pretty high with Ortiz and Votto fairly affordable. Albert Pujols (LAA) has a really nice matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez in Texas, but since he’s expensive and lacks the platoon edge, it’s tough to find room for him given the plethora of other options.

Second Base

Cheap Play:

Johnny Giavotella (LAA) – With no clear-cut great second base values, it makes sense to punt the position given today’s landscape. Giavotella is the most logical choice, especially before we see if other cheap guys move up in the order in other lineups. Not only does he give you the desired salary cap relief at the position, but he gives you exposure to an Angels offense with a healthy team total of 4.5. While Giavotella lacks good offensive skills and the platoon edge, pretty much every other contextual factor works in his favor. He has a valued lineup spot (leading off). He gets a huge park shift moving from LA to Texas. Opposing pitcher Chi Chi Gonzalez is not good. He doesn’t miss any bats (3.02 K/9) and has walked more than he has struck out. Don’t let Gonzalez’s 2.59 ERA fool you as a .205 BABIP and 82.6 percent strand rate are nowhere near sustainable.

Additional second base notes: There are a few decent mid-tier second base values without much separation and those include Jimmy Paredes (BAL) (elite matchup/game environment), Ben Zobrist (OAK) (good lineup spot, great peripherals, meh matchup) and Neil Walker (PIT) (definitely third of this group as he has good power from the left side but matchup with pitcher is mediocre and the park isn’t good). I wouldn’t be opposed to using any of these options in cash but none standout as great options so it’s probably better to simply save a few extra bucks, which is why Giavotella is our lone written up second base option. Some options that land in the middle between the trio of mid-tier values and Giavotella as a punt are Rougned Odor (TEX) (faces a good pitcher but leads off with the platoon edge in Texas), Scooter Gennett (MIL) (a great value with a good lineup spot but wouldn’t count on that happening) and Aaron Hill/Chris Owings (ARI) (all about park, opposing pitcher and expected team success as skills aren’t great; would need to be top six in the order to be cash viable).

Shortstop

Top Play: Troy Tulowitzki (COL) (he’s underpriced, even for a road matchup, and makes for an excellent tournament option but middle infield is an easy spot to save some money to allow you to pay up for Kershaw and not sacrifice much at the prime offensive positions – first base and outfield)

Value Plays:

Xander Bogaerts (BOS) – We generally try to reserve using Bogaerts against LHP given his wide career splits, but his lineup spot (third) and the expected team success around him (Red Sox have a team total of 4.5, pushing 5) make him one of the higher upside shortstop options who remains affordable across the industry. It should also be noted that Bogaerts is making improvements in his second full season. He’s dropped his K rate down from 23.2 percent to 14.3, which is bolstering a 57 point increase in BA. I do have to say that the lack of power has been disappointing (too many ground balls, not a high enough hard hit rate).

JJ Hardy (BAL) – If Hardy has a top six lineup spot (we don’t mind sixth especially on the road for a projected high scoring team), he’s one of the better cash game options at shortstop. While he’s having a pretty ugly season overall, Hardy picked things up in June bringing his EYE up from .12 the month before to .33 and raising his hard hit rate from 19.1 to 31.9. I’m not going to go nuts over one big month but it gives us a little more confidence in using him, especially in favorable situations such as tonight. I’ve touched on opposing pitcher John Danks‘ poor splits (see Wieters burb), and he’s just been all around awful for his career. Over the past four seasons, Danks has posted ERAs of 5.70/4.75/4.74/5.38 and HR/9 of 1.17/1.82/1.16/1.57. On top of the great batter-pitcher matchup, Hardy’s power will see a boost from playing in US Cellular Field (second best park for right-handed HRs).

Alcides Escobar (KC) – Escobar gives you a prime lineup spot (first) in a good matchup (Tommy Milone has allowed a .325 wOBA to RHBs since 2012) with platoon edge, all for a punt price of $2,400. I think his reduced power upside and park puts him behind Bogaerts and Hardy, but for a cheaper price he’s a fine option at a position it makes sense to save at.

Additional shortstop notes: Carlos Correa (HOU) is the next in line shortstop to Tulowitzki and can be used in tournaments. On DraftKings it’s possible to purely punt the position with a sub-$3,000 guy such as Cesar Hernandez (PHI) or Hernan Perez (MIL). Marcus Semien (OAK) is a tournament option.

Third Base

Top Plays: The top plays at the third base position today are a couple of regulars: Todd Frazier (CIN) and Manny Machado (BAL). Both players have strong batter-pitcher matchups in extremely favorable ballparks and carry great in season peripherals. The issue here is cost. With prioritizing Kershaw, it will probably be hard to squeeze either Frazier or Machado into cash games. If you have the room or don’t play Kershaw, by all means pay up for this upside, but I’ll likely stick with our value play recommendation in cash games. The spot I’ve found either of these two to be most playable in cash games in conjunction with Clayton Kershaw is Frazier on DraftKings.

Value Play:

Jake Lamb (ARI) – Lamb rates as one of our model’s best value plays industry wide. He should hit fifth at home against the horrendous Kyle Kendrick. Since 2012, Kendrick has yielded a .333 wOBA and 1.11 HR/9 to LHBs. As mentioned earlier, Kendrick has been particularly horrible this season posting a miniscule K rate but extremely high hard hit rate. The Diamondbacks carry the highest team total of the night (5), and Lamb has made some nice strides at the plate, cutting his K rate and increasing both his BB rate and the loft he is generating. Look for his 6.1 HR/FB rate to rise as the season progresses, which will obviously result in better DFS production. Teammate Yasmany Tomas (ARI) is third base eligible on DraftKings. I’d consider them very comparable values. I prefer Lamb in a vacuum since he holds the platoon edge, but Tomas makes up for that with the better lineup spot (fourth).

Cheap Play:

Chris Johnson (ATL) – If Chris Johnson finds himself hitting cleanup (where he was last time Atlanta played a southpaw), he makes for a good punt selection at third base. Johnson isn’t a very good hitter, but it’s not often you find a minimum priced player on FanDuel and sub-$3k player on DraftKings who is hitting clean up and holds the platoon edge. Furthermore, Johnson is facing a below average rookie LHP in Adam Morgan. ZiPS projects Morgan to allow a whopping .362 wOBA and .194 ISO to RHBs.

Additional third base notes: Brock Holt (BOS) is an okay alternative value on FanDuel and a great value on DraftKings if you need to save a bit more money than the Arizona guys allow but don’t want to dip down to Chris Johnson. He’ll hit second for a Red Sox offense we are high on tonight and as mentioned earlier, Dan Straily particularly struggles against LHBs. Additional options include Aramis Ramirez (MIL) and Juan Uribe (ATL).

Outfield

Top Play: Mike Trout (LAA) (number one overall hitter in our model and undoubtedly the top play, making him a superb tournament option; in cash games, he’s too expensive given the emphasis on Kershaw and plethora of high upside mid-tier values at the position)

Value Plays:

Adam Jones/Nolan Reimold (BAL) – I’m sure some people will avoid Adam Jones today on the basis of his horrendous BvP against John Danks (1 for 30 with 7 Ks). I won’t be one of those people as the respective skill sets of each player and the great hitter’s park trump the BvP. We’ve railed on Danks enough, so let’s look at Adam Jones. He’s posted a .298/.351/.501 triple slash against southpaws since 2012 and is surprisingly affordable across the industry, particularly on FanDuel. Jones ranks just outside our top 10 overall hitters on the evening. If you want to double up on Baltimore exposure in the outfield or simply go with the cheaper option, Nolan Reimold should hit second and is very cheap across the industry. Reimold has battled injuries his whole career but has always displayed a solid profile – h’es more than just a punt play today.

David Peralta (ARI) – Peralta ranks just one spot behind Adam Jones in our model, and you could make the case that he’s actually the better play salary aside as he’s been better than our baseline projections indicate (and opposing pitcher Kyle Kendrick has been worse). Peralta has doubled his walk rate and increased his hard minus soft hit rate from 13 percent to 19.7 (cut IFFB rate down from 10.8 to 4.1). That’s likely resulting in his increased power (gains in both HR/FB rate and ISO). Peralta is one of the best ways to gain access to the Diamondback offense this evening. Teammate AJ Pollock (ARI) is viable in cash games as well but not as strong of a per dollar value as Peralta.

Jay Bruce (CIN) – Bruce, like Peralta, is someone our model likes based off of baseline projections and then looks even rosier when taking into account current peripherals. I’ve talked about opposing pitcher Mike Fiers‘ high FB and hard hit rates (lines up great with Bruce’s power game), and Bruce is having a heck of a bounce back season. He’s showed greatly improved plate discipline (EYE moved from .30 to .58) , a higher hard hit rate and has generated more loft. I don’t think the impact of how well Bruce is playing has fully been reflected in his DFS scores yet as he currently has a career low 13.6 HR/FB rate.

Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – I’m always hesitant to get too much Colorado exposure on the road, but if you want to diversify off the chalk offenses tonight, CarGo stands out as a strong individual value. Not everything is rosy with CarGo, but his plate discipline numbers and batted ball data is only slightly worse than his career marks and our baseline for him is set worse than his career stats anyways. While he’s not in Colorado, he’s in a plus offensive environment in Arizona and facing Chase Anderson, who has struggled to miss bats (14.8 K percentage) and will likely see a 4-plus ROS ERA unless he improves in that department.

Gerardo Parra (MIL) – Parra is an excellent cheap way to get exposure to a Milwaukee offense that we’re very high on against Michael Lorenzen in Cincinnati. Parra will lead off and is very affordable across the industry. His skills aren’t flashy but solid enough (.332 wOBA against RHP since 2012) to put him in a position to succeed against Lorenzen, whose peripherals, especially against LHBs, are nightmarish.

Additional outfield notes: Kole Calhoun (LAA) is an excellent pivot off of Parra on FanDuel. He’ll hit second for an Angels offense that sees a great park shift and faces a RHP who is extremely contact oriented. Other options we’d consider for cash games are Carlos Gomez (MIL) (huge upside but price and fifth spot keep him from being a core play) and Lorenzo Cain (KC) (only knock here is a big ballpark when the other similarly priced options in good matchups play in favorable parks). Some tournament only options are Ryan Braun (MIL), Joc Pederson (LAD), Mookie Betts (BOS), Cameron Maybin (ATL) and Steve Pearce (BAL). The latter would actually make a phenomenal value if he moves into the top five or six lineup spots.

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier One

1) Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Tier Two

2a) Chris Archer (TB)

2b) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)

4) Michael Wacha (STL)

Tier Three

5) Noah Syndergaard (NYM)

Tier Four

6) Jesse Chavez (OAK)

7) Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL)

8) Julio Teheran (ATL)

9) Trevor Bauer (CLE)

Tier Five

10) Anibal Sanchez (DET)

11) Andrew Cashner (SD)

12) Garrett Richards (LAA)

13) JA Happ (SEA)

Top Play:

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Do whatever you can to play Kershaw in cash games this evening. He’s the safest source of the most amount of points and it makes sense to simply lock that in and embrace hitter variance. Kershaw is always the top pitcher when he takes the mound because his skills are so far superior to anyone else’s (32.9 K percentage, 2.09 xFIP). He’s really separated from the field today due to his matchup. The Mets are middle of the pack in wRC+ against LHP but strike out 23.8 percent of the time against it (fifth highest in MLB), giving Kershaw by far the highest projected K percentage on the night. On top of that, the Mets are in a serious offensive drought, scoring more than two runs in just two of their past 15 games. Vegas, unsurprisingly, is overwhelmingly in Kershaw’s favorite. They have him pegged as the largest favorite (-280) and the Mets the lowest team total (just over 2 implied runs). At his price tag, you can fade him in tournaments if you want, but in cash games you’ll be behind the eight ball if you do, even if you have a large perceived advantage with your bats.

Next in line: Chris Archer (TB) (less than ideal matchup in Yankee Stadium against a lot of LHBs makes Archer a more likely tournament play than cash game but his skills are so great that he can’t be completely dismissed: 25.4 K-BB%, 49.0 GB rate, 2.39 xFIP)

Value Plays:

Michael Wacha (STL) – While I have Archer and Tanaka ranked higher than Wacha, my confidence in level in Wacha is high enough that I’d use him over those two on any site where he’s cheaper, even if it’s a little bit. It may end up being possible (although difficult) to pair Wacha with Kershaw on multi-SP sites such as DraftKings, depending on what punt play hitters emerge when lineups come out. Wacha’s matchup is a case of two different forces moving in opposite directions. After a slow start missing bats, Wacha is starting to generate a lot more swing and misses. Wacha failed to achieve a double digit SwStr rate in his first six starts. He has now done that in seven of his past nine starts and five of his past six. In fact, Wacha has averaged a 12.1 SwStr rate in his past six starts leading to an average K rate of 25.5 percent. If he can continue to get strikeouts at this clip, Wacha would have a high ceiling to pair with his already high floor (plus control, lower than average hard hit rate, favorable home park). This ceiling is amplified by playing a Padres team that is 20th in runs scored over the past 30 days with the second highest K rate. For the season, they rank 24th in wRC+ against RHP with a high 22.2 K percentage.

Jesse Chavez (OAK) – It might not be possible to afford both Kershaw and another top three tier starting pitcher. If that’s the case, look the way of Jesse Chavez who is perpetually underpriced on DraftKings ($7,000). Chavez has suffered from a bit of regression lately, but this is a solid all-around skill set. He has above average K and BB rates, and his fly ball tilt fits his big ballpark. He’s listed as a -153 favorite in a game with a low total (7.5) as he’ll take on a Mariners team ranking 26th in wRC+ against RHP with the third highest K percentage. Plus skills, plus park and plus matchup combine to make Chavez the logical cheap second pitcher choice.

Additional starting pitcher notes: Despite the perceived problems surrounding Masahiro Tanaka (NYY), he continues to pitch very well, almost even dominant (25.6 K percentage, 3.07 xFIP). He’s been plagued by a high HR/FB rate, which won’t be helped by his home park tonight. However, this opposing Rays lineup is absolutely atrocious and gives Tanaka more than enough upside to be used in tournaments. Noah Syndergaard (NYM) is underpriced based on his skills but the upside and floor are both lowered by facing a Dodgers offense that ranks first in wRC+ against RHP. Pitching versus Clayton Kershaw also results in a big hit to Syndergaard’s win probability. He’s a secondary value on DraftKings due to the price but not someone I’m actively targeting. Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL) is a viable alternative to Jesse Chavez. I think he’s riskier as I perceive him to be volatile and the park is very unfavorable. However, Jimenez has been great (low hard hit rate, 3.18 xFIP) and the White Sox offense has been bad all season long. Andrew Cashner (SD) is tempting me with his low price tag, but his K rate has fallen off and the Cardinals don’t swing and miss a ton leaving me to view him as a price play in tournaments only.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (help@dailyroto.com) if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

The top four stacks were covered pretty extensively throughout the position by position analysis.

1) Baltimore orioles

2) Arizona Diamondbacks

3) Milwaukee Brewers

4) Boston Red Sox

5) Los Angeles Angels (Chi-Chi Gonzalez doesn’t miss bats and has an unsustainable BABIP and LOB%; huge park shift in Angels favor playing in Texas; Rangers bullpen is third in xFIP)

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) Cincinnati Reds (Mike Fiers is fly ball oriented and carries the highest hard hit rate among any qualified starting pitcher into Great American Ballpark)

2) Houston Astros (Justin Masterson was good in DL return but still was under 87 mph on his fastball, representing a serious decline from last year’s mark and his career mark; Astros are one of the best teams to stack due to their HR/SB prowess; Red Sox bullpen is fourth in xFIP)

3) Kansas City Royals (Tommy Milone is homer prone, even in big parks; Kurt Suzuki is easy to run on; the Twins bullpen as the worst xFIP in the league)

4) Atlanta Braves (not a good offense but a cheap one, which will let you round out this stack with lots of upside; face rookie LHP Adam Morgan who has a ZiPS projected 5.27 ERA and 1.34 HR/9)

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.

TB at NYY 7:05: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind south at very light speeds. The wind blows out to center and is a 5 or a 6.

CLE at PIT 7:05: Light showers. Not concerned about a cancellation, maybe a 10% chance. There is a 20% to perhaps 30% chance of a delay. Temps in the low 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7. Wind southeast 4-8 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 4.

TOR at DET 7:08: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 70s falling into the mid to upper 60s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind northeast at very light speeds. The wind blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

HOU at BOS 7:10: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind south 5-10 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.

MIL at CIN 7:10: Some showers/t-storms around. Not expecting a cancellation as it is not a steady rain (10% chance of a cancellation) but there is a legitimate chance of a delay (30%). Temps in the low to mid 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7. Wind northeast at 4-8 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

PHL at ATL 7:35: Thunderstorms, some strong. Not concerned about a cancellation as it will not be a steady rain (10% chance of a cancellation) but there is the real threat for a delay (30% chance of that). Temps near 80 falling into the mid 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind west-southwest 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

LAA at TEX 8:05: A 20 to perhaps 30% chance of a thunderstorm causing a delay. Not concerned about a cancellation (~10%). Temps in the mid to upper 80s falling to near 80. Air density is an 8. Wind south 8-16 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 3.

BLT at CHW 8:10: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind east-northeast 5-10 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 4.

MIN at KC 8:10: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind northeast at 4-8 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 4.

SD at STL 8:15: Dry. Temps in the upper 70s falling into the mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind north 5-10 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 4.

SEA at OAK 9:05: Dry. Temps near 70 falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-northwest 10-20 mph which blows out to right. The wind is an 8.

COL at AZ 9:40: With temps in the 100s and a 20% chance of a thunderstorm, I am not really sure what they will do with the retractable roof. Like I said, temps are in the 100s so air density is a 9. Wind west-southwest 6-12 mph which blows out to right if the roof is open. The wind is a 6.

NYM at LAD 10:00: Dry. Temps near 70 falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-northwest 10-20 mph which blows out to right. The wind is an 8.

MLB Daily Analysis

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