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7/3 MLB DFS: Play O’s, Danks me later

7/3 MLB DFS: Play O’s, Danks me later
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – MLB DFS Picks | July 3

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Glossary: See a term you’re unfamiliar with? Check out our glossary page. If there’s something you’d like to see added there, please email us at help@dailyroto.com.

Weather: Games to watch weatherwise in WSH, PIT, CIN, ATL and TEX but I am NOT concerned about a cancellation.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.


Top Play:

Matt Wieters (BAL) – Wieters hasn’t been playing in back to back games at all so I won’t spend a lot of time here in case he does rest (it’s absurd to me the Orioles aren’t more strategic in which games he does and doesn’t play as this would be the second weak LHP he misses this week). If he is in the lineup, he’s the clear-cut top catcher option and a tremendous value as he’s in one of the best parks for right-handed power (US Cellular Field), has crushed LHP since 2012 (.371 wOBA, .232 ISO) and faces the horrific John Danks (.357 wOBA, 1.54 HR/9 allowed to RHBs since 2012).

Value Play:

Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – I hate to seem repetitive as today’s catcher options mirror the options throughout the week, but Lucroy, who we view as underpriced or at least fairly priced (peripherals getting in line, great lineup spot), is once again in an elite matchup. He doesn’t hold the platoon edge, but faces a bad RHP in Michael Lorenzen and is playing in Great American Ballpark, one of the few parks in the big league that serves as an upgrade over Lucroy’s home park. Lorenzen, despite the 3.38 ERA, has been rather awful all-around, posting below average marks in K rate, BB rate, GB rate and HR/FB rate. He holds a 5.64 FIP and 4.94 xFIP, and the Brewers have a healthy team total around 4.5 this evening. Lucroy is a top 30 overall hitter in our model, second only to Wieters (top 10) among catcher eligible players.

Cheap Plays:

Josh Phegley (OAK) – On FanDuel, both of our recommended cheap plays are more aggressively priced making them better tournament options. However, on DraftKings they offer meaningful cap relief and a discount to Wieters and Lucroy, which makes them very valuable on a day where you should be paying up for Clayton Kershaw in cash games. Phegley hits fifth against LHP. The matchup isn’t amazing, but it’s a plus as JA Happ has allowed a .329 wOBA and more than a homer per 9 to RHBs since 2012. It’s pretty amazing the amount of Oakland hitters who are showcasing peripherals well better than expected heading into the season. Part of that is due to hitters being put in good positions by how often Oakland platoons guys. Phegley is one of these players as his solid .280/.333/.523 triple slash is buoyed by a 179 wRC+ and .239 ISO against LHP. It’s dangerous to over rely on one-year splits as the sample size is small, but the hard hit data and plate discipline back up what Phegley is doing and the cheap price tag mitigates risk.

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