MLB DFS Picks September 25: Prison Break
If you have ever been a student in some capacity, I’m sure you know that helpless feeling that comes when you just simply don’t know an answer on an exam. Without a multiple choice option, your left scrambling for some ridiculous answer that might earn you partial credit, or at the very least, display the creativity you’ve got stored up in that brain.
That empty feeling was pitted in my stomach while trying to find a suitable pop-culture reference for today’s piece. That is, until I found out that Prison Break is coming back with a revival. Prison Break is exactly how it sounds, a thrilling series following the lives of individuals trying to make an escape from a prison.
After reading this piece, rush to the nearest Netflix supporting device, and turn it on. You won’t stop watching.
Catcher: Yasmani Grandal
Prison Break Character: Brad Bellick
Grandal and Bellick are similar in terms of how they make the audience feel. Originally you’ll hate Bellick, and maybe come around to love him, and I feel like this year, the opposite is true of Grandal’s play. Prior to the All-Star break, Grandal was one of the best offensive catchers in the league, and since, he’s disappeared, sort of like how Lorde has vanished from the Earth since her first album. The reason I’m going back to Grandal tonight is the matchup he is getting at Coors Field. If you’ve been playing MLB DFS all season, I’m sure you know that the catching position is a shallow one. Therefore, let’s try to take advantage of Grandal in a good spot against a right-handed pitcher, as he’s hit 15 of his 16 home runs against right-handers. I’m hopeful that he has a lineup spot in the first five hitters tonight, but I’ll be on board with wherever he’s pegged. He’s posted a respectable .196 ISO against right-handers this year.
Let Grandal make the difference in…cash games.
First Baseman: Adrian Gonzalez
Prison Break Character: Fernando Sucre
For all the English speaking folk reading this, “sucre” in Spanish means sugar. Sugar is sweet, and so is Adrian Gonzalez‘ swing. Get the comparison? In all honesty, watching the show will have you fall in love with Sucre, and playing Adrian Gonzalez tonight will probably make you love him. He’s taking advantage of the same matchup that Grandal is, and he should thrive. The Dodgers currently have an implied run total up above six runs, meaning that you’ll want heavy exposure to their offense in cash games and GPPs tonight. Gonzalez might be the safest play from this game, and one with the most upside considering his .239 ISO and .367 wOBA against right-handers this season.
Let Gonzalez make the difference in…cash games.
Second Baseman: Brian Dozier
Prison Break Character: LJ Burrows
Most of the comparisons I strive to make are performance and action based, but this one is purely on appearance. Both Dozier and LJ have that young and wild, care free look. Topped with long and crazy hair and a reckless approach, Dozier is a great way to diversify your exposure tonight. Most players will simply be stacking Coors Field up and down, but at a position with limited options, using Dozier against left-hander Matt Boyd will be a great tournament pivot. In his career, Dozier has displayed much better skills against southpaws, posting a .221 ISO and a .358 wOBA. He’s priced appropriately high, but allocating your salary to him gives you an upside that very few will be able to achieve at second base.
Let Dozier make the difference in…GPPs.
Third Baseman: Manny Machado
Prison Break Character: Michael Scofield
Ah, the mastermind of it all, Mikey Scofield. It was only fair to pair him up with my favorite player from this entire piece, Manny Machado. Machado is such a stud, I shouldn’t even have to rationalize his play, but I will anyway. First of all, he’s another way to differentiate lineups from Coors Field while still getting a solid matchup. He’s facing a washed up southpaw, Rich Hill, and while he doesn’t have noticeably better skills against left-handers, his hit tool is too good to pass up at the salary, especially given that I’m 100% sure that he’ll be under owned. I’m banking on the fact that the Orioles will currently outperform their unappealing team total in a road matchup where their guaranteed nine full at-bats. Machado is such a stud, just do it.
Let Manny make the difference in…GPPs.
Shortstop: Jose Reyes
Prison Break Character: Theodore “T-Bag” Bagwell
First I must make a disclaimer that this comparison has nothing to do with the morals or character of Jose Reyes, I’m sure he’s a much better human being than T-Bag. However, they are both slimy, pesky people. Reyes has that slap approach, and well, used to have some speed to go with it. He’ll be hitting at the top of the Rockies order and actually comes with an accessible salary unlike his Coors Field counterpart, Corey Seager. I don’t love Reyes skills at this point in his career, but there is really nowhere else to turn and his matchup with Mike Bolsinger isn’t that threatening. Just suck it up, and slide him in at shortstop.
Let Reyes make the difference in…cash games.
Outfield: Bryce Harper
Prison Break Character: Lincoln Burrows
What you didn’t know was that I was saving this comparison the whole piece. Both Harper and Lincoln are brutes. These guys are enormously strong and are the “vicious, do whatever it takes” type. Granted, essentially every outfield that finds his way into the lineup in Coors Field tonight is a great option, but I wanted to differentiate a bit with perhaps the best hitter in baseball right now. Harper will be squaring up against young Phillies right-hander Jerad Eickhoff, and that should excite you. I know it’s been a brief stint in the big leagues, but Eickhoff is allowing 2.30 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. Bryce Harper is a left-handed hitter and is the most fierce power hitter of any of the lefties in the league. Just use him.
Let Harper make the difference in…GPPs.
Starting Pitcher: Carlos Martinez
Prison Break Character: Benjamin Miles Franklin – “C-Note”
C-Note is the member of the prison that can get you whatever you need. Every prison scenario has one, and tonight, I need a solid performance from Martinez. Martinez has really broken out this year striking out over a hitter per inning and getting nearly 54% ground balls to go with his 3.28 xFIP. Combine all that with his matchup with a washed up Milwaukee Brewers lineup on the road away from Miller Park and you have an exciting matchup with an attackable salary for Martinez. The Brewers are in the top ten in the league in terms of K%, and are in the bottom third in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Need I say more?
Let Martinez make the difference in…cash games.