MLB DFS Week 12 Payoff Pitch
Welcome back to The Payoff Pitch! In this article I break down what has happened in the last week when it comes to injuries, lineups and streaky hitters. This is a great way to refresh your memory or catch up on a few days lost. As always, let’s start it off with the injuries that’ll impact DFS this week.
**All stats are from end of Saturday’s MLB action.
**All stats are from Monday MLB slates.
Jose Altuve has been struggling with a hamstring issue this past week and if he continues to be out then there is more value to be had due to guys with better lineup positions than there is with his replacement. Marwin Gonzalez has filled in for Altuve after he reinjured his hamstring on Wednesday, but he’s doing so in the eight-hole. Players like Domingo Santana and Luis Valbuena have seen a lineup boost this week. Santana hasn’t had much success at all in his limited MLB career while Valbuena has very good against RHP in 2015. His career numbers show weak numbers overall and only a .308 wOBA/.160 ISO against RHP, but in 2015 he’s seen a major increase. Those numbers have improved to .338 (wOBA) and .278 (ISO) this season. He’ll face right-handers from Wednesday through Saturday this week.
Wil Myers has been out for a while now, but this past week it was announced he’d be out for 6-8 more weeks. That means we get 6-8 more weeks of some very interesting leadoff options out of the Padres. They don’t see any sort of park boost due to being at San Francisco to start the week and at home to end it, but I think there could easily be value to be had. In the last seven games (including Sunday), we have seen them roll with four different leadoff hitters: Melvin Upton Jr., Yangervis Solarte, Will Venable, and Cory Spangenberg. Venable is worth a look against RHP, as he has a .172 ISO and .326 wOBA in his career against them. The Padres will face four of them this upcoming week.
For a good part of this season, J.D. Martinez ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD) was hitting in the four-hole and with protection behind him in the lineup. Nowadays though, Yoenis Cespedes ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD) is hitting in front of him and with Victor Martinez ($3,600 DK, $3,000 FD) back in the lineup, this means Martinez finds himself with a bad spot in the order (sixth) and no protection. Martinez has come back hitting well putting together three hits on Sunday including a home run. He has been an unbelievable hitter in his career against both sides, but is better from the right side. His ISO is .184 and his wOBA is .372 in his career against southpaws. To end the week, the Tigers face three LHP, all coming in the White Sox series.
Derek Dietrich has struggled in his career to put together impressive batting averages against either RHP or LHP, but he has always had some pop in his bat. He has posted a .221 ISO in his career against LHP and .190 ISO against RHP. With him batting second in the Marlins order in five of his last six games (including Sunday), he’s going to get a great amount of at bats and even better protection. He won’t be considered a cash game option unless he’s very cheap, but should be considered a GPP option all week long.
“Garcia is the guy I want to look at hard this week with three LHP on the mound…”
The White Sox have mixed a few things up in recent days, but I think it’s worth keeping an eye on to see if they continue doing it. This change I’m talking about is moving Avisail Garcia ($4,100 DK, $2,600 FD) to second and Melky Cabrera ($3,500 DK, $2,200 FD) to fifth in the order against southpaws. Cabrera responded Sunday with a 5-5 day, but Garcia is 1-9 during that stretch. Garcia is the guy I want to look at hard this week with three LHP on the mound in their next seven games due to Garcia’s better numbers against them. His wOBA in his career has been 20 points higher against them (.333 compared to .313) and his ISO has been improved as well (.161 compared to .123).
The Toddfather, Todd Frazier, is whatever kind of hot you want to call it right now after having an amazing week. As a Tigers fan, I saw it first-hand with two multi-home run games with one of those home runs being a walk-off grand slam. He has five home runs in his last eight games, and is hitting in the .290s, but who cares with power like that. You are getting the best value out of Frazier when you use him against southpaws, and luckily for us he’ll see two great LHP matchups this week. He has a wOBA of .360 and an ISO of .237 against LHP in his career.
Manny Machado has taken over very nicely for the Orioles in the leadoff position and in his last seven, he’s really showing off. He’s hitting over .400 with three home runs and three stolen bases during that span, but five of those games were in Philadelphia and Toronto, two great hitter parks. Machado won’t be in superb hitting parks this week (Boston/Baltimore), but will be able to continue to take advantage of plus park matchups.
The Red Sox have struggled this season, but in the past week they’ve played much better. Part of that might be because of Mookie Betts‘ success at the plate. He’s hitting almost .600 in his last seven with two home runs and one stolen base. In his limited MLB experience, he’s hitting better against RHP than LHP when it comes to wOBA and ISO although his ISO is just barely better. A .347 wOBA is very nice to see especially as he continues to hit at the top of the order. The Red Sox will face six RHP in six games this upcoming week.
One Tigers hitter that is struggling immensely is Nick Castellanos ($2,900 DK, $2,200 FD). He’s pretty much unusable when facing a RHP this season as he’s sporting just a .248 wOBA against them and is doing it at a huge power position in DFS. In the last seven, he’s hitting just .091 with zero home runs. Castellanos should really be sent down to AAA to gain some confidence, but until then he’s a guy I just can’t use. If you must consider him then do so against LHP. His .315 wOBA against them is pretty average, but his .024 ISO makes Ben Revere look like Babe Ruth. The Tigers will see three LHP this week all coming at the end of the week.
Rick Porcello is a guy that is ice-cold on the mound in recent starts. He’s given up an ERA of 8.10, a WHIP of 1.62, and struck out 12 in his last 16.2 innings (three starts). He’s always struggled against LHP, and such is the case in 2015. Porcello is giving up a .342 wOBA to them in 2015 to go along with a 1.51 HR/9 rate. This is great news for lefty bats on the Rays. He’ll face them on Friday, so keep guys like Asdrubal Cabrera, David DeJesus, and Kevin Kiermaier in mind when Porcello takes the mound against them.
Mike Wright is another starting pitcher who is just awful right now. In his last three starts, he has thrown just 10.1 innings giving up a 12.19 ERA and a 2.42 WHIP. He’s thrown limited innings in his career, but he has given up an astonishing .395 wOBA against lefty bats this season. Wright will face the Red Sox in a day game on Thursday, so all hands should be on deck for guys like David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, and any other lefty hitter that finds himself in the order that day.