MLB DFS Week 13 Payoff Pitch
Welcome back to The Payoff Pitch! In this article I break down what has happened in the last week when it comes to injuries, lineups and streaky hitters. This is a great way to refresh your memory or catch up on a few days lost. As always, let’s start it off with the injuries that’ll impact DFS this week.
**All stats are from end of Saturday’s MLB action.
**All stats are from Monday MLB slates.
Josh Hamilton ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD) should be back in the lineup this week, maybe as early as Monday or Tuesday. He has only played in seven games this season, but was hitting the ball well before the injury. Hamilton is a much better hitter against RHP than LHP and will see four of them in his next five games. His career wOBA against right handed arms is .386 compared to .337 for lefties. Three of those matchups will be at the friendly confines of Camden Yards.
Byron Buxton injured his thumb in the middle of last week and we’ve seen Eddie Rosario ($3,200 DK, $2,600 FD) and Shane Robinson ($2,300 DK, $2,200 FD) fill in for him since. Rosario started both Saturday and Sunday in the two-hole. This is great for Fantasy players searching for a cheap outfielder for salary relief this week. He doesn’t have great numbers so far in his career, but does present some value against right-handers, where his ISO is a respectable .175 d with a .311 wOBA in limited at bats. Rosario will face six right-handers this week.
The Mariners are mixing up the top of their order with Austin Jackson back and Franklin Gutierrez getting spot starts against LHP. Unfortunately for him (and us) he only faces one this week. He’s held down the second spot in the lineup in the last two games where the Mariners have faced southpaws. Now, with right-handers on the mound in six of seven games, we won’t see him all that much this week. Keep an eye on him for that start against the lone lefty this week, as he’s a .353 wOBA hitter against them in his career.
Nick Ahmed ($3,000 DK, $2,700 FD) has been bumped from the bottom third of the order to leadoff in three of the last four games. At a tough position to fill, this is something worth noting. He’s been very good in limited numbers against LHP (over .400 wOBA) this season. If you add in his 2014 numbers, that wOBA is still a respectable .322. Ahmed will face two lefties this week, so if you want a piece of that action, this may represent an opportune time to do so. However, with his limited pop, I’m not going to be forcing him into my lineups this week.
The hottest hitter in all of baseball has to be Nolan Arenado ($5,200 DK, $5,000 FD) right now. He has hit eight home runs in his last seven games (including Sunday). He’s hitting over .370 during that time and not surprisingly has 15 RBI. In his career, he has a .377 wOBA against LHP, but won’t face any this coming week. His numbers against RHP are good (.335 wOBA and .204 ISO), but not nearly as good as against LHP. He’ll also be on the road all week long. Hitting in Arizona is certainly nice, but with his high price tag, this might be the time to hop off the Arenado train.
Curtis Granderson has provided pop and a high average in the last seven games, where he’s hit .458 with five home runs. He’s never been that great against LHP in his career, but in 2015 he’s been absolutely terrible. His 2015 ISO is .169 against lefties, which makes him even more unplayable than he’s been previously. The Mets play six games this week and only two of them will be against LHP. His success this season has come against RHP, as he’s sporting a .383 wOBA with a .209 ISO against them in 2015. Look for Granderson’s hot streak to continue against those four righty starters he’ll face this week.
Brett Gardner ($4,600 DK, $4.700 FD) is another lefty outfielder who is crushing the baseball right now. His .469 average with two home runs over his last seven games is nothing to scoff at. His matchups this week are tough to start with but they improve as the week moves on. He’s not bad at all against LHP for his career (.322 wOBA), but I don’t know if his historical performance gets you very excited about paying up for a LHP match up. While Gardner has been better this season against southpaws (.350), I’m still going to find it challenging to roster him given his elevated salary.
While Granderson is killing the baseball, Juan Lagares is most certainly not. He’s hitting .048 in his last seven games. Even with his struggles this past week, he’s still killing LHP (.388 in 2015). That number is much better than his .335 career wOBA. The start of this week does give Lagares a few lefties to target, but they’re Lester and Kershaw. With his recent cold streak and those two matchups, Lagares is a fade for another week.
There isn’t a whole lot going well for Shin-Soo Choo ($3,500 DK, $2,400 FD) this season, where he’s hitting just .225 and .103 in his last seven. He’s always been great against RHP, but he’s not an upside guy at this point in his career. His high wOBA against RHP is due to his .401 OBP (.299 average vs. RHP). With three southpaws on the mound this week, there aren’t many opportunities to include him in a roster that’s going to place high on the leaderboards. To start the week, he’ll face three right-handers in the Baltimore series. While he’s not a GPP guy for me, I could potentially see buying low on him with Hamilton coming back into the lineup. That should help his value as long as he stays within the top five spots of the order.