NBA DFS DraftKings Rotations: Grizzly Bear Attack
One of the key things I look at when creating my lineups is the amount of minutes a player has played in recent games and is projected to play on any given night. This is a very important stat because without minutes, opportunity is limited. Some players will receive more minutes due to injuries on the team or changes in the rotations. Others may just be playing really well and are being given more opportunities. Towards the end of the season, some of the worst teams in the league may also provide some of their young players with more playing time to get some experience under their belt. This is something we will cover for you the rest of the season.
The Grizzlies are dealing with tons of injuries. Mike Conley has a foot injury and is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks. Marc Gasol has been ruled out for the season. Zach Randolph has missed four games due to soreness in his knee and his status for Monday is unknown. Mario Chalmers was waived by the team after suffering a ruptured Achilles. Then you have Chris Andersen, Brandan Wright, and Vince Carter also out with injuries. Of the three, the only one who has not been ruled out for an extended amount of time is Carter. However, it’s not all bad news as these injuries have opened the door for other players on the Grizzlies to receive more playing time. Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson, Tony Allen, and JaMychal Green have all been playing more minutes and have seen an uptick in usage. They’ve also been DFS gold in recent games. All of their prices have increased, but with the exception of Green, they remain reasonably priced on DraftKings. Another that I have not mentioned is Briante Weber who was signed to a 10-day contract. He has played two games and is averaging 35.4 minutes and 24.6 fantasy points per game. What’s even better is that he remains at the minimum price on DraftKings. On Monday, the Grizzlies play against the Rockets who play paced up and surrender over 50 fantasy points per game to point guards, making Weber an interesting play. Let’s take a look at some of these players’ numbers in the last four games.
As you can see, all of them have done fairly well in recent games and all have seen a good amount of minutes. For the foreseeable future, this appears to be the players that will log the heavy minutes in Memphis, at least until some of the other players return from injury. Also take note of Memphis Coach Dave Joerger’s recent quote about the team’s plan right now, which even taken as a tongue in cheek remark points towards high usage for Lance Stephenson:
Dave Joerger on his latest plan (with mounting injuries): “Now, we’ll just give it to Lance (Stephenson) and get out of the way.”
— Chris Vivlamore (@CVivlamoreAJC) March 13, 2016
Another team who is dealing with injuries is the Philadelphia 76ers. Jahlil Okafor will undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and is expected to miss at least six weeks, essentially ending his season. Jerami Grant and Robert Covington are both dealing with concussions and missed Saturday’s game. It’s not clear if this will carry over to the next game, but it’s worth noting as this created opportunity for several of the Sixers players. Carl Landry started on Saturday and played 25 minutes. He scored 18 points, grabbed six boards, and finished the night with 29.5 DraftKings points. He nearly 10Xed his salary. Hollis Thompson also benefited from his teammates absence as he logged 34 minutes. He didn’t fare as well as he scored just 16.75 DraftKings points and did not pay off his salary. However, the amount of minutes he played is worth mentioning as it was seven more minutes than his season average. Nerlens Noel will be the main beneficiary of Okafor’s absence. In his last four games, he’s averaging 32.5 minutes, 14.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 3.5 assists, two steals, and 34.9 fantasy points per game. He was $6,200 on Saturday and I’m interested to see his price tag in the team’s next game. He does a little bit of everything as he contributes to most categories.
Nerlens Noel last four games
The Bulls will be without Pau Gasol on Monday against the Raptors. He is dealing with a knee injury and did not travel with the team. This should open the doors for Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis. Both should see more minutes and a higher usage. In fact, Portis has a usage percentage of 24 when Gasol is not on the floor. Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable and Derek Rose is listed as doubtful for Monday night’s game; both missed the previous game. In their absence, E’Twaun Moore and Justin Holiday got the start. In the last five games, Moore has averaged 30.3 minutes per game. Since January first, any time that Butler, Rose, and Gasol are off the floor, Moore has a usage rate of 21 percent. Holiday played 38 minutes in Friday’s game against the Heat and scored 28 fantasy points. Moore ($4,500) and Holiday ($3,600) don’t have the best of matchups on Monday, but if Rose and Butler sit this contest out, minutes and usage alone make both of them considerable options. They are the two primary players in the backcourt that will see an uptick in value if Butler and Rose miss a significant amount of time. Moore is the better and more reliable option of the two.
That’s it for this week. I’ll be back next week to break down more on NBA Rotations. Good luck to all!