NBA DFS Rotations: New Value in New Orleans
One of the key things I look at when creating my lineups is the amount of minutes a player has played in recent games and is projected to play on any given night. This is a very important stat because without minutes, opportunity is limited. Some players will receive more minutes due to injuries on the team or changes in the rotations. Others may just be playing really well and are being given more opportunities. Towards the end of the season, some of the worst teams in the league may also provide some of their young players with more playing time to get some experience under their belt. This is something we will cover for you the rest of the season.
The Pelicans shut down Anthony Davis for the season as he is dealing with knee and shoulder injuries. They’ve also been without Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans who are also out for the remainder of the season. In addition, Norris Cole has missed the last seven games due to a back injury and Ryan Anderson was unable to play on Sunday against the Clippers due to a groin injury. At this time, there’s no time table for Cole’s and Anderson’s return, but when they do return, both should see a good amount of minutes and usage. Anderson’s usage rate is at 29.2 percent when Davis is off the court. When Anderson returns, I’z anticipating 30+ minutes per game. He will likely be underpriced at first on DFS sites and should be someone to target at the right price.
Ryan Anderson‘s last seven games
All the injuries to the Pelicans’ backcourt has opened the door for Tim Frazier and Toney Douglas. Both have seen plenty of playing time and have been involved in the offensive game plan. Douglas is averaging 30.8 minutes per game in his last eight games. Frazier is averaging 24.7 minutes per game in the last three games. From a DFS stand point, they are both cheap, but Douglas is the more consistent of the two and also sees more playing time. In the last two weeks, he has a usage rate of 19.2 percent. His price on DraftKings for Sunday’s game against the Clippers was $4,800. Prior to Sunday’s game, Douglas had exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 6.19 points, in his last 10 games. So long as Cole remains out, Douglas can be considered a value play until his price meets his production/potential.
Toney Douglas‘ last eight games
Tim Frazier‘s last three games
On Sunday several other players played well and received significant minutes. Dante Cunningham played 39 minutes and scored 31 DraftKings points. He was priced at just $3,100. He finished the evening with 19 points, six boards, and two steals. Luke Babbit played 29 minutes and scored 23.5 DraftKings points. He had 14 points and eight rebounds. Omer Asik played 29 minutes and recorded a double-double (15 points and 14 rebounds). Alonzo Gee continues to see a decent amount of playing time, but is far too inconsistent for my likings. If Ryan Anderson misses any more time, the forward rotation should look something similar to what it looked like on Sunday. Making Babbit and Cunningham the beneficiaries of his absence at the forward position. This is definitely something to monitor. Last but not least, Jrue Holiday will continue to see the bulk of the usage and be the best option on this offense moving forward.
Sunday’s Pelicans game log
Other situations to look at
Jonas Valanciunas has missed the last four games with a hand injury. During his absence, Bismack Biyombo has received the starts and he has been doing a very good job. In his last four games as the starter, Biyombo is averaging 31.75 minutes, 15 rebounds, three blocks, 11 points, and 38.25 DraftKings points. He has exceeded value in each of the last four starts. Valanciunas has been listed as active in the last two games, but has been a late scratch. So long as he remains off the court, Biyombo has to be considered a very good option. He’s efficient and consistent.
Biyombo’s last four games
Michael Beasley has been on fire as of late for the Rockets. He has scored double-digit points in six consecutive games and is averaging 25 minutes per game in his last four. If he continues to produce at this level, he could potentially see a more consistent role in the Rockets rotation. Since March 9th, Beasley has a usage rate of 33 percent. In that time frame, he’s averaging 26.96 fantasy points per game. He has topped 27 fantasy points in four straight games and has displayed his 35+ fantasy point upside. He’s been less the $4,500 and while his price will likely increase, it should still be reasonable enough to keep him in play. The lack of minutes is concerning, but as I mentioned before, he’s seen more minutes as of late and has played 26+ minutes in three of the last four games. He should continue to be heavily involved off the bench for the remainder of the season and I wouldn’t be shocked if he saw more consistent minutes.
Beasley’s last seven games
That’s it for this week. I’ll be back next week to break down more on NBA Rotations. Good luck to all.