NBA DFS GPP Recap: Klay’s Day
You might look to this post each week to pout about last night’s losses, or maybe even gloat about dominating the night. While you do one or the other this week, I want you to be considerate. This was Klay Thompson‘s first time being featured in the recap, and there is a good chance it will be the last.
This one is for you, Klay.
|Position||Player||Statline||DK Points||FD Points|
|PG||Russell Westbrook||24Pts, 15Ast, 8Reb, 4TO||57.5||52.1|
|SG||Klay Thompson||45Pts, 5Reb, 2Blk, 1Ast, 1TO||59.75||55.5|
|SF||Gordon Hayward||22Pts, 7Reb, 5Ast, 2Stl, 2TO||42.75||39.9|
|PF||Kevin Love||21Pts, 11Reb, 4Ast, 2Blk, 2Stl, 1TO||51.25||47.2|
|C||Andre Drummond||25Pts, 18Reb, 2Stl, 1Blk, 2TO||54||50.6|
Note: If a player is listed above, this does not mean he was the top scoring player at his position. Also, player positioning may change in the future as positional eligibility varies from FanDuel and DraftKings.
$250K Baller, $1,065 Entry, $25,000 to First Place
Team: Archie Goodwin, Russell Westbrook, Avery Bradley, Zach LaVine, Danilo Galinari, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nerlens Noel, Andre Drummond
$200K Monster, $300 Entry, $30,000 to First Place
Team: Russell Westbrook, Archie Goodwin, JR Smith, Zach LaVine, Kawhi Leonard, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Drummond
$300K Slam, $25 Entry, $30,000 to First Place
Team: Russell Westbrook, Archie Goodwin, Klay Thompson, JR Smith, Danilo Gallinari, Robert Covington, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Drummond
$75K All-Star, $1,060 Entry, $20,000 to First Place
Team: Zach LaVine, Archie Goodwin, Gordon Hayward, Kevin Love, Andre Drummond, Dion Waiters, Nerlens Noel, DeAndre Jordan
$100K 3-Ball, $300 Entry, $20,000 to First Place
Team: Zach LaVine, Will Barton, Kevin Durant, Paul Millsap, Karl-Anthony Towns, Raymond Felton, Jerami Grant, Nerlens Noel
$250K Medium Slam Dunk, $20 Entry, $20,000 to First Place
Team: Russell Westbrook, Will Barton, Gordon Hayward, Kenneth Faried, Andre Drummond, Zach LaVine, Josh Smith, J.J. Barea
Medium Priced Paradise
Each week I’ve been identifying a certain range of salaries that have been exploited on FanDuel in GPPs and have led to top leaderboard finishes. This week, the price range that found itself at home at the top of leaderboards was right in the middle $6,000-$7,000.
|Player||Salary||FD Points||Slam Own %|
It’s strange seeing these three names with such low salaries, but this is where we are. Each one of these guys is now playing second fiddle, or has taken a backseat to a better player or fantasy performer, thus depressing their salary. None of them have been particularly great, or consistent this season, but it just goes to show just how good they can all be on a given night. It’s just odd that they all put it together at the same time.
Taking a slice or two of this trio allowed for players to spend up on Westbrook while sliding Drummond into their lineups, and that couple, when paired with some of the absurdly high owned value, helped catapult a lot of teams towards the top of the leaderboard.
In Need of a Heroic Performance
If you’ve been following along since the beginning of the NBA season, you’re familiar with the dominating performances that Andre Drummond has had this year. He’s had a bit of a downward regression, but he still averages a solid double-double, and can blow up at any moment. While efforts of pure domination have slowed, I’m shocked at Drummond’s ownership percentages last night against the Sixers. After a pair of dud games in a row, it seems receny bias might have swept in, keeping Drummond’s ownership levels much lower than they should have been given his current salary. So what did he do? Well, he made about 70% of FanDuel players, and nearly 85% of the players on DraftKings look like fools.
|Player||FD Points / Own%||DK Points / Own%|
|Andre Drummond||50.6 / 29.5%||54 / 15.2%|
It is important to note that according to Rotowire, the Sixers are the third worst team against the center this year in terms of average fantasy points allowed per game – yet, so many people passed over Drummond despite an accessible price tag. But hey, there were people that took advantage, as five of the six top lineups shown above contained Drummer.
Although Russell Westbrook was close, no one really had a “Create-A-Player” type game last night, and because of Westbrook’s absurdly high ownership levels, there is really no point in talking about him. Westbrook didn’t win any tournaments last night, but he did help people from losing them. On the other hand, that guy from Golden State, no, not Steph Curry, the other guy – he was good.
Klay Thompson has been a fantasy afterthought for most of the year, and rightfully so given the fact that Draymond Green has ascended into the role of best guy not named Steph. But, occasionally, given the dearth of options at the SG position, it’s perfectly fine to chuck Klay into a lineup, and hope he’s finding the bottom of the net.
If you did that last night, touché.
|Player||FD Slam Own %||DK Medium Slam Own %|
The ownership percentages actually make sense to me here. You’re forced to roster two different shooting guards on FanDuel, and as I mentioned, there aren’t a whole lot of options that jump out at the page at you. Even so, most people found “better” alternatives and looked elsewhere.
|Player||FD Points||DK Points|
|Klay||14-20 Shooting, 7-12 From 3|
I wanted to put these two little tables next to each other, because this was classic Klay. When you put him in a lineup, you acknowledge the risk that comes with him. He is only going to score points, well, by scoring points. Last night, he was making everything and as a result, his point total kept on climbing. If I showed you this line and left the name blank, you’d almost certainly guess Steph Curry before anyone else, but last night, Klay was drinking Chef Curry’s special stuff (there is a Space Jam joke in here, but I don’t know how to do it).
How Contrarian Must I Be?
This is the third week of this section, but if you’re just catching up, I’ve left the details below.
After scrapping the Utility section thanks to overwhelming (and quite boring) data, I took to the DailyRoto forums to find a section that was a better fit. After a handful of sections, I decided to focus on the ownership aspect, especially in regards to the two major tournaments of the night (the Slam and Shootaround). Given that we can comprehend so easily how difficult it is to win a GPP, we’re often times stretching out of proportion just how to build a lineup. Fitting in a player that no one else will have, just because no one else will have him. Is this necessary? How contrarian do we need to be in order to finish first out of thousands of entries?
Once again, before you take a look at the ownership levels on the winning lineups, I’d like you to try and envision them. By now you know who was good last night and which players you would have needed to assemble a potentially winning lineup, but think about their ownership levels collectively. No, you don’t need to close your eyes and put yourself in a safe place (although it doesn’t hurt), but try and guess how many players were less than 5%, less than 10% and so on.
And now that you’ve done that….take a look.
FD Slam: 38.7%, 63.3%, 8.9%, 15.4%, 10.9%, 16.5%, 16.2%, 20.8%, 29.5%
DK Medium Slam: 23.6%, 3.3%, 22.1%, 4.9%, 15.2%, 17.0%, 5.1%, 12.3%
Were you close to guessing?
So…..these numbers are closer to the numbers I’ve been guessing for the last three weeks – a couple fairly low, some decent sized numbers, and then some middling in between. I think these ownership levels fall in line with some basic lineup construction strategies for GPPs. The higher owned players are typically those of extreme value, the one guy that is going to be receiving big minutes and everyone knows it, but you simply can’t pass it up. Then there are the “risks” or the chances on players that maybe don’t have the best matchup, or are coming off a few bad games – those players typically carry a smaller ownership level. Then there are some guys right in the middle – the players that are being talked about, but perhaps not by enough people.
One thing you might have noticed though, is that for the third week in a row, the Winner in DraftKings has held some really low owned players. Aside from the winning player just being oddly contrarian, I do have a logical explanation for the consistently lower owned players – late swap. It’s all a matter of game theory. For example, if you have one or two players left that you suspect will be quite highly owned, and you’re near the top of a GPP, you have a decision to make. Should you keep those players, assuming that one or more players ahead of you have the same combination left? If you do keep them, and you suspect correctly, then your best finish is behind all of those players you are already behind. However, if you use the late swap function to move to a different player, you at least give yourself a chance to move ahead of those lineups, and take down first place.
Now I can’t be certain that this has been the case the last three weeks with the winning lineups on DraftKings, but it is a potential reason for the discrepancies in ownership percentage between the two sites.
Here is to next week!
Congrats to the winners!