NBA DFS Picks 3/11: Golden Curry
That was fast. My break is over and I didn’t accomplish even half of the things I set out to do with my time off. You know what though, I wasn’t completely useless. A few things I did do: changed a diaper, drank a lot of coffee, won four games of canasta and crossed over some un-athletic junior high kid in a pickup basketball game.
That all lead me to this point in time, where I’m sweating golf lineups while trying to keep from only writing “Steph Curry” for each position below. Oh yeah, and I know there is a lot of value out there tonight, particularly in Memphis where they’ve literally gotten near the point of “ask the other team for a player” a la Little League but I’m going to avoid referencing them in this piece.
PG: Steph Curry
I mentioned there is going to be a lot of value tonight and we already know there is one less superstar on the board with Boogie Cousins getting the bench due to a team enforced suspension. What does that mean? You’ll have plenty of free cash to spend up for Steph Curry. Steph and company get a rematch with the Blazers (who have beaten the Warriors once) at home in a game with a total at 226. Of course, since this game is being played in Steph’s backyard the Warriors are thirteen point favorites, but that isn’t scaring me off him. I don’t think you’ll need many reasons from me to persuade you into using Steph, but consider his league leading PER of 32.26 (nearly four points ahead of Westbrook). Dame Lillard has worked to “slightly improve” his individual defense but the Blazers are still allowing the 9th most FanDuel points to point guards over the last ten games. Oh also, those ten point guards weren’t Steph Curry.
SG: Victor Oladipo
I don’t know what Scott Skiles is going to do from night to night. I don’t think Skiles himself even knows what he is going to do until the game begins. Where does that leave us with Oladipo? I think he makes for an interesting tournament play tonight. The Kings are atrociously bad defensively and have allowed the fifth most points to opposing shooting guards per game on the season (per FD points). While Oladipo carries the risk of Skiles being a jerk, he also carries some thanks to a recent back injury that saw him sit a recent game. Oladipo is a high-energy player when on the court, able to pick up peripherals (5.5/4.4 plus 1.6 steals per-36) to go with a 22.8% usage rate this season. However, given all the risk – I’ve deemed him a tournament only play tonight. I haven’t been able to locate a line on this game yet, but expect to have a decent sized total making Victor a high risk, high reward option tonight.
SF: Rudy Gay
To feature Gay in your lineups, you need a few things to happen. First, you need Boogie Cousins to be out. Check. Second, you need an accessible price. Check. In nine games this season without DeMarcus Cousins, Gay has amassed a 28.9 usage rate (per statmuse) as opposed to a 21.3 usage rate when Cousins is playing alongside him. That is a sizable jump in usage that we should try to take advantage of. As I mentioned in Oladipo’s section, there isn’t a total on this game yet but my guess is that it will fall in the middle of tonight’s totals and should make Gay a “safer” play given his price tag around the industry. He typically isn’t a player I would start my cash games with, but without Demarcus Cousins he draws strong consideration in both cash games and tournaments.
PF: Thaddeus Young
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention anyone that was playing against the Sixers in this piece. Before I even touch on Thad as an individual play in this game, I should note that it carries a total just of 211.5 and the Nets are only slight road favorites. Thad’s minutes aren’t usually a concern anyway (he’s averaged 36.2 over his last ten games) but the fact that this game is projected to stay close only helps our cause. In his two games against the Sixers already this year, Thad has averaged 20/10.5 and I don’t see why he can’t come close to matching those totals again tonight. Much like Gay, Young carries a really accessible price tag for what should be a solid night of production given 36 minutes against a weak Sixers defense. Per-36 minutes this season, Thad is averaging 16.3/9.8 to go along with 1.7 steals. That provides us with enough of a solid baseline that I believe we can trust him in cash tonight.
It’s become almost a weekly routine to put Towns in this spot, but until he’s priced accurately I’m going to keep using him. Towns has been a monster so far in his rookie season and he’s making the one Timberwolves fan I know really, really happy. We’re talking about fantasy though, so why choose him tonight? First off, this game looks to have a lot of fantasy goodness, carrying a total of 225.5. Despite the sizable spread, Towns is going to remain a focus of mine in cash games and tournaments. Thanks to a few less than stellar performances in his last five games, he’s seen his price drop below $8,000 on DraftKings. BELOW $8,000 PEOPLE! Do not forget that in his rookie season he is averaging 17.7/10.2/1.7 plus 1.8 blocks and 0.7 steals a game. Oh, and he’s become the focal point of the Timberwolves offense, carving out a usage rate of 24.8. The matchup with the Thunder is not the greatest, but I’m more concerned with the accessibility of his price coupled with the high total and opportunity presented in this game. Want to know something else, Towns has the 15th best PER in the entire league. What can’t this kid do?