NBA DFS Rotations: Impact of the Chandler Parsons Injury
One of the key things I look at when creating my lineups is the amount of minutes a player has played in recent games and is projected to play on any given night. This is a very important stat because without minutes, opportunity is limited. Some players will receive more minutes due to injuries on the team or changes in the rotations. Others may just be playing really well and are being given more opportunities. Towards the end of the season, some of the worst teams in the league may also provide some of their young players with more playing time to get some experience under their belt. This is something we will cover for you the rest of the season.
The Mavs lost Chandler Parsons for the season as he suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee. This has opened up some playing time and usage for several players on the team. For starters, Dirk Nowitzki will be asked to do more. In his last three games, Dirk has averaged 34.3 minutes per game. This includes a game versus the Kings where he played just 20.8 minutes due to a blowout. Since Parsons has been out, Dirk has a usage rate of 27.7 percent. For the season, he has a usage rate of 27.1 percent whenever Parsons is off the court. The Mavs are fighting for a playoff seed in the West, so it’s very likely that Dirk will continue to see plenty of minutes the rest of the way. Wes Matthews is averaging 12 field goal attempts in his last four games. In that span, he’s averaging 37.6 minutes, 18.8 points, and 31.5 DraftKings points per game. He’s exceeded value in all but one of those games. He has a usage rate of 17.1 percent whenever Parsons is off the court. Deron Williams is dealing with a strained left groin and currently has no timetable to return. He has missed the team’s last three games (including Monday’s). His absence has created opportunity for J.J. Barea and Raymond Felton to receive more playing time and to see an uptick in usage. For the season Barea averages 21.9 minutes per game and Felton averages 27.3 minutes per game. In the last two games, Barer is averaging 29.5 and Felton is averaging 36.6 minutes per game. Since the start of the season, Barea has a usage rate of 22.7 when Williams is off the court, while Felton has a usage rate of 18.4. However, in the last two games Barea has a usage rate of 25.4 percent and Felton has a usage rate of 20.3 percent. The Parsons injury likely has something to do with those increases as well. All of the players, with the exception of Dirk, remain reasonably priced. Keep an eye on their prices and minutes moving forward, but chances are they will continue to see a heavy workload. David Lee has been hit or miss and still doesn’t see consistent enough minutes to be a viable option on a regular basis.
Dirk Nowitzki‘s numbers since Parsons’ injury
Wesley Matthews‘ numbers since Parsons’ injury
J.J. Barea‘s numbers since Parsons’ and Williams’ injury
Raymond Felton‘s numbers since Parsons’ and Williams’ injury
There have been two players that have stood out in recent games, Ed Davis and Maurice Harkless. Davis is averaging 21.3 minutes per game in his last six games and has played 20+ minutes in five straight heading into Monday night’s contest. In that span, he’s averaging 9.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 28.7 fantasy points per game. He scored 30 or more fantasy points in four of those six games. His minutes have steadily been increasing and it’s something to keep an eye on. He has hit 8X his salary in several of his last games, which is excellent value. Harkless moved into the starting lineup last Monday after posting double-digit real points in three consecutive games. In his last three games, he’s averaging 28.5 minutes, 13.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, one block, and 26.8 DraftKings points. In that span, he has a usage rate of 18.5 percent. His price was just $3,500 this past Monday night, so it’s interesting to see how much it will increase for the following game. The Trail Blazers are sitting at the number six seed in the West, but are only 2.5 games ahead of the currently ninth seeded Mavs. Harkless has been efficient and productive, so long as he continues to play at this level, he should continue to see playing time and be a viable cheap small forward.
Maurice Harkless‘ last three games
Ed Davis‘ last six games
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Willie Cauley-Stein has played at least 28 minutes in each of his last two games and topped 30 fantasy points in each of those games. It’s interesting to see if he minutes remain consistent to close out the season. He’s been under $4,000 on DraftKings and could be a great ROI play in the foreseeable future, so long as he’s playing those minutes. It’s also worth noting that, DeMarcus Cousins sat out on Monday night and with the Kings playoffs hope drawing very thin, they may elect to shut Cousins down at some point and give younger players such as Cauley-Stein some more playing time. That is not yet the case, but something to keep a close eye on.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Enes Kanter remains at a reasonable price on DraftKings and has crushed value in 90 percent of his last 10 games despite averaging a little over 20 minutes per game. This is something to keep an eye on as he could be a great value play moving forward so long as his price remains low and his production remains high.
Shane Larkin has played 24 or more minutes in the Nets last four games and has taken over Donald Sloan’s starting duties. He has scored over 20 DraftKings points in three consecutive games and has recorded two double-doubles in his last four games. Sean Filtzpatrick is averaging 22.9 minutes and 20.3 fantasy points per game in his last eight games. While he’s been inconsistent, his price remains under $3,500 making him a cheap tournament target if employing a studs and duds strategy.
That’s it for this week. I’ll be back next week to break down more on NBA Rotations. Good luck to all!