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NCAA Picks Against the Spread

David Richard - AP
NCAA Picks Against the Spread
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Editor’s note: This article is part of a 4-week series being done with MyBookie.Ag


There are a couple of intriguing games under the lights on Friday night in college football and in the CFL. Not a lot of people pay attention to the brand of football from our friends north of the border, especially once college football and NFL kick off in September. However, they play a great brand of football and, most importantly, there is money to be made. Don’t sleep on the CFL action, friends. Here are my NCAA picks and a CFL bonus for you.

Boise State (-12 1/2) vs. Virginia

I was burned by the hook last week, as Boise won 28-14 with a 14 1/2-point number. It was a late Lobos TD with 1:11 to go spoiling what would have been a successful night. It happens. It won’t happen again.

While Virginia actually looked like a coherent and capable Power 5 club last week, they were also playing a dismal Connecticut side. In the previous week against a team with a similar skillset to Boise, the Cavs were manhandled at Scott Stadium by visiting Indiana, 34-17. You can expect more where that came from. Virginia’s defense wasn’t able to slow Indiana, and they won’t slow the Broncos on the Smurf Turf, either. Boise is averaged 32.0 PPG through three outings, they whitewashed the Cavs 56-14 in the most recent meeting Sept. 25, 2015, and not much has changed for either side since. UVA is 1-6 ATS over their past seven overall, 1-3-1 ATS in their past five on the road and 1-4 ATS in their past five against winning sides.

Ottawa RedBlacks at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (over 55 1/2)

The RedBlacks were really struggling on defense during the early going, and that tends to happen when you open with a home-and-home against the high-octane Stampeders. After opening 2-0 on the over, the under is 8-1-2 over their past 11 games. So why the over play then? Well, Vegas has pushed their total down, and that lone over result over the past 11 came Aug. 4 against these same Blue Bombers, 33-30 on a 57 1/2-point total.

The Bombers do just that — BOMB! They have scored 33 or more points in eight of their past nine outings and they’re aren’t terribly mindful on defense, either, giving up 26 or more points in each of their past four, and seven of the past eight. As a result, the over has connected in four in a row, and eight of their past nine.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+12) at B.C. Lions

The Ti-Cats head out to Vancouver looking to continue their improved play. They opened the season with eight consecutive losses, but have rebounded to win two of their past three, including a shocking straight-up win as 12-point dogs in Ottawa on Sept. 9. The Cats will be looking to avenge a 41-26 setback at Tim Horton’s against the Lions back on July 15. Since then, these teams are both going in opposite directions. Hamilton has covered each of their past two as double-digits ‘dogs, too.

The Lions stumble in with four losses over their past five outings and they’re really struggling on offense. They have posted 17 or fewer points in three of their past five while going 1-4 ATS during the span. As an added parlay bonus, the under is 4-1-1 over the past six for B.C., and a perfect 3-0 in Hamilton’s past three.

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