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NFL DFS: DraftKings Week 1 Pricing First Look

(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
NFL DFS: DraftKings Week 1 Pricing First Look
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5 Things You Need to Know About DraftKings Week 1 Pricing

1.) The Kyler Murray Hype is Warranted

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $5,600

It’s possible it’s just the #DFS Twitter bubble that we’re in, but one of the most talked-about names in fantasy is Kyler Murray. His surging ADP suggests Murray’s popularity extends past our little Twitter bubble. Murray detractors think the hype is overblown and that his supporters are assuming a ceiling season.

Where do our DailyRoto projections land? Coming at $5,600 in DraftKings Week 1 pricing, Murray is initially our third favorite value at the position, and the two in front of him (Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz) arguably see their ceilings drop as a result of game script (both large favorites, which could diminish second-half passing).

Are we guilty of assuming the ceiling expectation for Murray? We actually think we’re leaving room for production above our expectations. Part of the reason detractors feel like the Murray enthusiasts are so crazy is that they are comparing this year’s expectations to the wrong baseline – last year’s Arizona Cardinals results.

The Cardinals were a dumpster fire last year – playing slow-paced with an offensive system that lacked creativity behind one of the worst offensive lines ever. By that standard, our projections are going to look aggressive. However, our 63.5 play baseline (right around league average, which could be conservative given what we know about Kliff Kingsbury), 7.51 YPA (a little below league average, spread offense with lots of skill player talent and a QB with one of the highest YPAs in college football history), and 6 projected Murray rushing attempts all leave as much room for growth as they do decline.

2.) Kerryon Johnson is Underpriced

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $5,800

One flaw in the DraftKings pricing coming out so early is that there are bound to be values and mispricings as a result of news and injuries between now and September 8th. We see that already here at the end of July, as Kerryon Johnson’s price tag does not take into account the subtle but impactful news that the Lions cut Theo Riddick.

What does this mean for Johnson? He should stay on the field on third downs with Riddick’s 74 targets from a year ago gone. Over on our seasonal website, RotoExperts, the DailyRoto seasonal model has Johnson ranked all the way up at RB12 on the season now, calling for 74 targets (an increase of 0.7 per game) and 254 carries (an increase of 4 per game).

Throw in a matchup against a Cardinals team that should score more and run at a faster tempo this year, but still be bad, and Johnson will likely end up in your cash game conversation (don’t you dare tell me it’s too early for this talk!).

3.) DraftKings Hates the Vikings

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $6,800

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $6,700

One of the best ways to attack tournaments, especially Week 1 when other teams will be sucked into studs and duds builds as a result of some cheapies emerging as a result of the early pricing, is to pound high upside, mid-tier players throughout your roster.

Both of the Vikings wide receivers fit that mold and are our top two ranked value receivers initially. With Chad Beebe and Laquon Treadwell behind on the WR depth chart, Thielen and Diggs don’t have to worry too much about competition for targets. Our initial baselines put them each right around a 25% target share, and there’s room for upside beyond that.

Look for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs to replicate last year’s target totals.

4.) Cheap Tight Ends

There’s going to be very little need to pay up at tight end, even on a slate that features Zach Ertz, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce, because there are some really cheap high upside options that stick out right off the bat:

The popular ones:

Hunter Henry, LA Chargers – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $3,900

Evan Engram, New York Giants – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $4,800

-Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $3,200

-David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $3,700

-TJ Hockenson, Detroit Lions – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $3,100

Under the radar DailyRoto likes:

-Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $3,100

-Ricky Seals-Jones, Arizona Cardinals – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $2,700

While it might seem like DraftKings priced these tight ends too cheap, ownership should be spread out quite a bit, and the decision to use or not use a tight end in your FLEX spot is a bit tougher than usual.

Stephen A. Smith won’t be the only person talking about Hunter Henry Week 1:

5.) Panther Prowl

While the Arizona-Detroit and Tampa Bay-San Francisco games already have some early Twitter buzz as stackable environments (for good reasons), it’s the Panthers-Rams game that really catches our eye. With Cam Newton’s shoulder looking healthy, he’s one of our top season-long targets along with the young duo of wide receivers in DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel.

While Christian McCaffrey may be the highest owned Panther Week 1, you can stack the aforementioned trio for a combined $16,200:

-Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $6,500

-DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $5,500

-Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $4,200

Initially, we’re not quite as optimistic on the Rams side of things, but it’s not difficult to bring back your Panthers stack with an affordable mid-tier Rams WR, as three of them rank inside our Top 15 positional values:

-Brandin Cooks, LA Rams – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $6,500

-Robert Woods, LA Rams – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $6,400

-Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – DraftKings Week 1 Pricing – $5,700

 

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