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NFL DFS GPP Recap Week 3

NFL DFS GPP Recap Week 3
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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NFL DFS GPP Recap Week 3

After seeing such great touchdown celebrations throughout the years, I’ve started to wonder just how great the touchdown celebrations are from DFS players. With life-changing amounts of money on the line each weekend, a lot of the touchdowns scored by players are just as important to us as they are to them. Unfortunately for me, I didn’t have enough touchdowns this weekend to warrant any sort of celebration, but if you used any of the players below, you probably did your fair share of celebrating.

I’ll be scheming to find something for my bag of tricks next weekend, when undoubtedly I’ll be in line for more touchdowns. Until then though, I’ll rely on Hingle McCringleberry’s touchdown celebrations to get me through the day.

As always, below is the top-perfomers table from this last week. Hope you had these guys!


Player

Stats

DK Points

FD Points

Devonta Freeman 3RuTd, 141 RuYd, 52 RecYd, 5 Rec 45.3 39.8
Joseph Randle 3 RuTd, 87 RuYd, 18 RecYd, 2 Rec 30.5 29.5
Julio Jones 2 RecTd, 164 RecYds, 12 Rec 43.4 34.4
AJ Green 2 RecTd, 227 RecYds, 10 Rec 47.7 39.7

And below is the list of guys that put them all together!

FanDuel

$5 Million NFL Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $1,000,000 to First Place
Winner: cookies248
Team: Cam Newton, Devonta Freeman, Joseph Randle, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Stephen Gostkowski, Seattle D
Score: 252.10

$12Million WFFC Qualifier #18, $25 Entry Fee, WFFC Ticket ($103,000 Value)
Winner: robbie622
Team: Carson Palmer, Latavius Muray, LeGarrette Blount, Randall Cobb, AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Olsen, Brandon McManus, Seattle D
Score: 224.44

DraftKings

Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1.2 Million to First Place
Winner: Hoothead
Team: Cam Newton, Devonta Freeman, Joseph Randle, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Greg Olsen, LeGarrette Blount, Seahawks D
Score: 301

$15 Million Fantasy Football World Championships Q,  $1,000 Entry, $1,000 + Ticket to first
Winner: Maxdulary
Team: Marcus Mariota, Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, Randall Cobb, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Greg Olsen, Jared Cook, Seahawks D
Score: 257.58

Fantasy Aces

Fantasy Aces Football Championship Qualifier, $535 Entry, Ticket to First Place
First Place: Thepantysh
Team: Tyrod Taylor, Carson Palmer, Latavius Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Larry Fitzgerald, Donte Moncrief, Delanie Walker, Dion Lewis, Devonta Freeman, Seattle D
Score: 217.20

So What Happened This Weekend?

You remember back four or five years ago when you were only sweating season long fantasy leagues? Yelling about standard scoring while your players didn’t score any touchdowns and you easily fell in defeat to a terrible opponent. This week, you would have been basking in glory, because everyone, and I mean everyone, scored touchdowns.

As a result of all the touchdowns, the winning scores in both the Sunday Million and Millionaire Maker on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively, each went up by nearly forty points.

How?

Including passing, and defensive touchdowns, “Hoothead” had 20 total touchdowns in his winning lineup on DraftKings. While “Cookies248” collectively gathered 17 of his own. Players weren’t just scoring one touchdown this week and calling it quits, instead, they were finding paydirt, two or three times before they were satisfied.

Here’s a look at some of the notable multi-touchdown scorers, and their ownership percentages from the Sunday Million and Millionaire Maker.


Player

Touchdowns

DK % Own

FD % Own

Larry Fitzgerald 2 RecTD 24.7 22.5
Randall Cobb 3 RecTD 12.3 8.2
Greg Olsen 2 RecTD 8.3 10.5
LaGarrette Blount 3RuTD 2.2 2.8

If you scroll through the winning teams on either of the sites, you’ll notice a lot of the players above combined with the players I mentioned earlier. It was a great day to be a backup running back.

Who Made The Difference?

Devonta Freeman was truly the differentiator this weekend. Freeman, who was stepping into Tevin Coleman’s starting role against the Dallas Cowboys, was only 6.7 and 7.9 percent owned respectively in the Sunday Million and Millionaire Maker this weekend. While he towered over the ownership level held by Travis Benjamin last week, simply put, without Freeman, your lineup wasn’t getting near the top of the leaderboard.

As noted above, he ran for over 100 yards, eclipsing the DK yardage bonus, and he converted three red-zone runs into touchdowns while still allowing Julio Jones to get his fair share of points.

There wasn’t anything jumping off the page to me this weekend about Freeman, who didn’t have a rock bottom salary or juicy matchup in his favor. Keep in mind, the Dallas Cowboys held Demarco Murray and his porous offensive line to just two yards on 13 attempts last week.

He didn’t let that phase him though, starting hot right out of the gates and seemingly never slowing down. If you let him wiggle his way into your lineups, you were rewarded handsomely.

Recency Bias Finally Wins!

I’ve mentioned in the past that trying to calculate which players that general public will fade thanks to a poor performance the week before is a great way to take advantage of recency bias, or the tendency to believe that the recent past will be coming again in the future. Lots of times, a poor performance one week will either push or pull the public onto a matchup, and the ownership percentages will reflect that.

After seeing a contrarian Larry Fitzgerald scorch the field with three receiving touchdowns last week, the people took notice of a negligible salary change and his ownership percentages grew to over 20 percent in both of the respective millionaire games this week.

He didn’t let the people down though. He hauled in nine catches for 134 yards, and found the end zone twice in a hearty rout of the San Francisco 49ers. Fitzgerald has shown life in an aging body, and appears to be rejuvenated with a healthy Carson Palmer. Two weeks in a row he’s provided great wealth given his salary, how highly will he be owned next week against the St. Louis Rams?

Quarterback, Schmaurterback

I have been really interested the last few weeks to follow the trend that I noted in this section last weekend. Therefore, I wanted to dive back in and see just how diverse the quarterback selection was this week. Given that a boatload of touchdowns were scored by just about every position player on the planet, it follows logically that quarterback play might not have been that important, but let’s look at the numbers.

Sunday Million, FanDuel : Eight different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. Two more quarterbacks than last week: Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Tom Brady, Sam Bradford, Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson, and Matt Ryan. Difference in highest and lowest score = 18.72 (Aaron Rodgers – Russell Wilson). The difference from the top to bottom (only including the top-20 lineups) increased by roughly eight points this week.

Millionaire Maker, DraftKings: Six different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. One less quarterback than last week: Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Carson Palmer. Difference in highest and lowest score = 20.30 (Aaron Rodgers– Ryan Fitzpatrick). The difference from top to bottom (only including the top-20 lineups) increased by approximately four points this week.

With all the points scored this week and the drastic increase from winning scores from last week, it’s reasonable that the gap between the top and bottom quarterbacks also increased. But again, notice that even the difference between quarterbacks from top to bottom wouldn’t be nearly as drastic as the difference between using Devonta Freeman and Melvin Gordon, who had similar price points this weekend.

One other odd note from doing this quarterback analysis – two weeks in a row a Ryan Fitzpatrick team has found a way into the top-20 in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker. Is this some sort of voodoo? Maybe I should start putting together Fitzpatrick teams now!

Congratulations to all the winners from this week, and to the losers, sorry!

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