NFL DFS GPP Recap: Week 7
Was it just me, or was this a crazy week of football? The Dolphins are apparently good now (small sample size alert) and the Saints won again too. Oh, and Kirk Cousins did this.
Let that loop over and over in the background as you sift through the winners from this week.
|Todd Gurley||2RuTD, 128RuYds, 35RecYds, 4Rec||35.3||30.3|
|Lamar Miller||1RecTd, 61RecYds, 3Rec, 1RuTd, 175RuYds||41.6||37.1|
|TY Hilton||4Rec, 150RecYds, 2RecTd||34||29|
|Mike Evans||1RecTd, 164RecYds, 8Rec||33.4||26.4|
You’ll see those names again a lot in the winning lineups that follow…
$4 Million NFL Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $500,000 to First Place
Team: Andrew Luck, Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Ladarius Green, Blair Walsh, St. Louis Rams
$12M World Fantasy Football Championships Q, $300 Entry, Ticket to First
Team: Drew Brees, Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Chandler Catanzaro, St. Louis Rams
$600K Sunday Monster, $300 Entry, $75,000 to First Place
Team: Andrew Luck, Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley, Kendall Wright, TY Hilton, Eric Decker, Rob Gronkowski, Dustin Hopkins, St. Louis Rams
Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1 Million to First Place
Team: Philip Rivers, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, TY Hilton, Rob Gronkowski, Lamar Miller, St. Louis Rams
$15 Million Fantasy Football World Championships Q, $3 Entry, $1,000 + Ticket to First and Second
Team: Ryan Tannehill, Todd Gurly, Lamar Miller, Mike Evans, TY Hilton, Jarvis Landry, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Woodhead, Dolphins
$700K Blitz, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First Place
Team: Tom Brady, Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, Nate Washington, Rob Gronkowski, Michael Floyd, Rams
So What Happened This Weekend?
May the chalk be with you! I saw some things on Twitter this week that suggested that this week should be known as “Chalk Week,” and it lived up to it’s hype as multiple players carried high ownership levels in both of the big GPPs this weekend. For some, it worked, and you were unfortunate if you tried to fade them. For others, you would have been just fine.
Ownership levels taken from DK Millionaire Maker and FD Sunday Million.
DK Milly Maker
FD Sunday Million
Of the players listed above, you couldn’t afford to miss on Gurley. It’s often a tough decision as to whether or not to fade the top value play of the week in large field GPPs, however, if you decided upon “fade” for this week, you got stung hard by Gurley.
Fading the rest of these guys ended up being the right call, although Martavis Bryant didn’t hurt you given his salary. However, given the high scoring week, it was tough to be at the very top with him on your team, especially given the explosive scoring from players around his price tag.
I also could have included the St. Louis Rams in here as they were the chalkiest defense of the week, garnering 27.9 and 32.2 percent ownerships in the Sunday Million and Millionaire Maker respectively. Although there were a few other defenses that would have given you a chance, it was difficult to catch up to the pack if you didn’t have the Rams.
Who Made The Difference?
“Lamar Miller is good.” – Not Joe Philbin
In the last two weeks under a new head coach the Miami Dolphins seem to have “figured it out.” Sure, I know that them winning or losing doesn’t affect our cause, but hey, it’s nice to have a competent guy under one of the headsets. The switch has brought an excellent source of value to the fantasy landscape by freeing up Lamar Miller and the rest of this Dolphins offense. Miller was the difference maker this week.
Miller, who was 8.5 and 13.0 percent owned respectively in the Sunday Million and Millionaire Maker, scored at least 35 points on both sites and he didn’t even play the second half. His price tag was accessible, and although his ownership levels in cash games were respectable, people generally looked the other way in GPPs (I was one of these people). If you didn’t have him, you couldn’t have even come close to securing a big pay day, but if you did, you greatly increased your chances.
DailyRoto “CoverJinx”, Over?
This will be the third spot in this piece that I mention Todd Gurley but it’s necessary. If you’ve ever gotten lost in DFS Twitter, perhaps you’re aware of the conspiracy theory that suggests that the player that is featured in the cover image of the premium analysis on DailyRoto is some sort of a jinx. I’d like to chalk it up to “coincidence” because there are plenty of times where this player is rock solid, but everyone seems to take notice when they aren’t.
A shout-out to the DailyRoto wonderboys this week, as Gurley was the preferred running back and he didn’t let anyone down.
To Gronk or Not To Gronk…
You’re probably sick of hearing this question, but I think it’s one of the most interesting and puzzling dilemmas in all of NFL DFS. You might have noticed that when scrolling through salaries at TE there is Gronk and then a gap, and then Greg Olsen, and then another sizable gap and then the rest of the tight ends.
As a result, this leaves us with a decision once getting to this position in our lineup construction. Do we pay up for Gronk? Or use a cheaper tight end in a solid matchup to try and exploit another skill position?
Each of the last few weeks the results have screamed – “Not to Gronk.”
This week, I hope you Gronk’d (and if you didn’t, I hope you had Jordan Reed or Ladarius Green).
In the last few weeks, I’ve included the guys that have been outscoring Gronk, but this week I decided I’d show those that provided “comparable” stats. It would have been perfectly fine to use Ladarius Green or Jordan Reed as given their salaries, their value was just as great or better than Gronk’s. However, at tight end, it was basically just these three guys this week and noting the low ownership levels that recency bias pushed on Gronk, it was perfectly acceptable to own him in tournaments.
I’m going to be continuing this segment weekly in hopes of producing a larger piece on this deeper into the NFL season as the striking contrast in quarterback play has been a particularly interesting note thus far in the NFL season.
Below I’ve once again gone through the quarterbacks used in the top 20 lineups of both of the major tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Sunday Million, FanDuel : Nine different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. SIX MORE quarterbacks than last week: Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater, Matthew Stafford. Difference in highest and lowest score = 13.3(Kirk Cousins – Cam Newton).
Millionaire Maker, DraftKings: Four different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. ONE MORE quarterback used than last week: Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill. Difference in highest and lowest score = 5.12 (Tom Brady – Ryan Tannehill)
Keep in mind, that DraftKings uses a three point bonus for quarterbacks that throw for over 300 yards. Typically, those that are near the top of the leaderboard are ones that have eclipsed this mark, slightly inflating the difference between the top and bottom, and also the difference in point total from DraftKings to FanDuel.
Congratulations to all the winners from this week, and to the losers, sorry!