NFL DFS Preseason Week 1 Picks and Blog
Each week of the NFL DFS preseason we’ll be outlining some of the important situations to monitor that impact the roster construction for that week’s games. The NFL Preseason DFS Week 1 is here with a juicy 11-game slate. We’ve already outlined some important strategic considerations for each week of the preseason. In Week 1 the typical starters and veterans will rest leaving ample playing time for the unproven rookies, backups, and practice squad team members. We also know that it is important to target thin positional depth charts which will likely lead to more playing time for the eligible players.
At a team level, we are looking at positional scoring averages for QBs of roughly 15 DK points, RBs 25 DK points, WRs 35 DK points, and TEs 10 DK points. These averages could then be used to cascade down based on depth.
Preseason DFS Optimizer Tips (Link)
While we aren’t offering projections for the Week 1, our NFL Preseason DFS Optimizer will be live for premium customers and you can use it to upload your own projections and control your player pool. This blog will provide some guidance weekly to help with that, as well as roster construction tips. This week is a Showdown which means strong DFS players should spend time doing the following:
- Create groups to avoid too much positional competition on the same lineup.
- Create captain groups to ensure that if you utilize a QB at captain you’re correlating wide receivers, or if a wide receiver is used at captain you have QB options to pair with him.
- Utilize our shuffle feature to provide diversity to your lineups.
- Preseason can be very random. We have a new randomness feature that allows you to set a coefficient of randomness on players or positions. Consider increasing the randomness to reflect the variability of the projections for preseason.
Positional Depth (Roster Counts from FantasyData)
Last Updated at 4 PM August 6th
News and Notes (Last Updated 8/7 at 930PM)
- TEAM BEAT WRITER LIST (https://twitter.com/clevergroom/lists/)
- Daniel Jones expected to play the majority of the first half. Beyond that, the coach has been quieter making it not an ideal situation to target for skill position players.
- Interesting tidbit here on Gase suggests starters will play 1Q week 1. Also suggests they will throw a ton in later weeks.
- Lev Bell to sit. Darnold and starters to see a series or two.
- Buffalo Bills starters to play roughly a quarter. With just 3 QBs that means Barkley and Tyree Jackson would split 3Q of action. The Bills also have just 6 RBs. McCoy will sit with Gore seeing action with starters. Singletary is a solid target that should see playing time once Gore leaves.
- IND thin at TE and with Ebron/Doyle sitting Cox could be viable.
- Colt McCoy will not play in the preseason game which could leave a lot of time for Keenum and evaluating Haskins.
- Patriots expected to be without Brady, N’Keal Harry, Michel, White, Burkhead, Thomas, Meredith, and Kendricks among others. Former QB Danny Etling has been playing wide receiver leaving rookie Stidham and vet Hoyer to get all the snaps at QB. Branden Bolden and Damien Harris could also get a ton of work at RB, at least relatively for preseason. Possible pairings.
- With a HOF game under their belts, Atlanta will start to play more starters
- Chase Daniel and Bray stand out among thin depth at CHI QB while David Montgomery “leads” a thin RB backfield (RB1/2 in Cohen / Davis are vets).
- With just 5 bodies the Panthers RB corps is really 4 with CMAC expected to rest. If Payne gets veteran treatment, Bonnafon, Scarlett and Holyfield are next up.
- Kyle Allen to start for CAR and play equal snaps to Grier who will come in 2nd. This also flags Scarlett as banged up and suggest Bonnafon has PPR upside.
- Houston has just 3 QBs on their roster and with Watson sitting both AJ McCarron and Joe Webb should play 1H. UPDATE: AJ McCarron hurt his thumb and is out making Webb a strong QB play.
- It would be logical for Houston to get a look at their RB depth beyond Lamar Miller, with Foreman waived. This beat writer speculates Ferguson, Crockett and Higdon could get a look.
- Houston is also thin at TE and Warring an interesting option.
- Doubtful Aaron Rodgers plays for GB. 3 RBs are banged up including Tra Carson who had neck spasms. If he doesn’t play (Jones/Williams definitely sit) could be more work for rookies Dexter Williams and Darrin Hall or Corey Grant.
- Paxton Lynch and Geno Smith back-up Russell Wilson in another thin 3 QB depth chart situation where Wilson will not play. Seattle extremely thin at RB as well and potentially offering some tight end value with Vannett.
- Drew Lock to get a lot of time in mop up duty. Flacco to play a series or two, before Hogan then Lock take over.
- D-Will a player to watch for CIN at WR with Green and Ross hurt and Boyd locked into a starting role.
- Mixon, Bernard, Green, Eifert, Ross, Rodney Anderson names not playing for the Bengals. This notably doesn’t include Andy Dalton or Tyler Boyd but no confirmation yet on if they’ll play 1Q or just the token 1-2 series. With Mixon/Gio sitting expect a lot of Williams and Ellis at RB.
- “Everybody to play” for KC with focus on getting young guys some time. Andy Reed says the starters will play 1Q, 2nd string 2Q, 3rd string 3Q and 4th string 4Q. This should make correlation very easy using the Chiefs depth chart.
- The Rams notoriously rested their starters the entire preseason last year. Bortles expected to play a few series followed by Brandon Allen and John Wolford.
- It is unlikely that we see much from Cooks, Woods, Kupp, Reynolds, Higbee, Everett and Gurley on offense. This quickly depletes the Rams WR depth chart. Thomas, Hodge and Natson likely fighting for the roster spots.
- Last year the Rams gave John Kelly a lot of work at RB, and Malcolm Brown only a little bit. No news here but my assumption is Kelly and rookie Darrell Henderson get more work than Brown.
- Don’t roster Antonio Brown. But seriously, Gruden said not to expect to see a lot of the starters and to expect to see young guys. Renfrow a name that has impressed in camp. The Raiders are deep at RB and its a weird mix because Jacobs shouldn’t play much, Martin a vet, and Crowell (Out) while Richard / Washington also have experience.
- Expect to see a lot of Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman at QB. If going down this path consider pairing Glennon with JJ Nelson, Ateman and Grant and Peterman with Harris, Hatcher, Pierson-El
- Jimmy G won’t play leaving the 49ers with Beathard/Mullens and then a little Speight mop-up duty.
- The 49ers depth chart is thin at RB and it would be surprising to see much of Breida or Coleman, leaving ample snaps for the remaing crew of Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Austin Walter. Jeff Wilson didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday so monitor his status closely.
- Expect to see a good bit of WRs like Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd, Richie James.
- Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz highlight a thin TE depth chart in Dallas with Witten sitting and preseason hero Rico Gathers released.
- Tony Pollard and Mike Weber two rookies that could see valuable snaps on a 5 RB deep depth chart.
- Cooper Rush expected to see 50 percent of snaps at QB with Dak playing 1-2 series. Mike White would play the 2nd half.
- Dak would play with Gallup, Cobb and maybe Tavon Austin. Reggie Davis / Jon’vea Johnson types would play with Cooper Rush. Rush could potentially be stacked with Pollard or those WRs.