NFL DFS QB Strategy: Taking A Deeper Look at QB Opportunity
There are a number of different things we look for in our cash game QBs from price, to matchup to efficiency, but today I want to take a deeper look at opportunity. Let’s start off by taking a quick look at a few bar plots1 of how each category of statistics correlate to QB weekly DKpts2.
We quickly see that TDs have the highest correlation to DKpts than any other category. This is something that if you have been playing NFL DFS for a while you are probably aware of, the fact that we desperately need TDs from our QBs. If your QB goes out and throws for 275 yards and no TDs you are going to have to work yourself out of a hole in your H2Hs if your opponent’s QB goes out and throws three TDs, even if he doesn’t have a great day yardage wise.
So all we need to do is go after guys who scored TDs last week, right? Sounds easy. Unfortunately it’s, not; TDs are volatile and TDp (TDp = Touchdown passes) has only a .13673 correlation from week to week. Using Gini Coefficients3 as our measure of consistency, here is just how volatile TDp is week to week against other common passing statistics:
The lower the gini coefficient the more consistent the stat is week to week. The table is arranged so that at the top we see our least volatile stats and at the bottom, the most volatile. The coeffecients range from 0 – theoretically equal distribution, to 1 – a theoretically inequal distribution. A practical example would be if every QB over our entire sample threw the exact same TDp as their season’s average TDp in every game in that season. In that case, we would see a coefficient of 0. Very rarely will you see a coefficient below .08 or above .80 in most NFL stats, so the .70854 coefficient for QB fumbles reveals an extremely volatile stat week to week.