NFL DFS QB Strategy
QB Predictability Study Part One: How much do matchups matter?
We all know that matchups matter in Fantasy Football, particularly in DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) since you are selecting your players for just one game at a time. Playing matchups has become such common knowledge the last few years that the edge in dissecting matchups has somewhat diminished. With that in mind, I wanted to kick the year off with a strategy article that would help players regain some of those edges.
I set off to do a quarterback predictability study/experiment with two main goals in mind, one macro and one micro. On the macro side of things, I wanted to answer the question: How important are matchups to quarterbacks? It’s a simple question, but I think there are people who probably overuse matchups when making their weekly roster selections and people who either don’t use them enough or use them incorrectly. Stemming from this, I wanted to see how matchups affected groups of quarterbacks (high volume passers, running quarterbacks, etc.).
On the micro side of things, I wanted to answer the question: Are some quarterbacks more predictable than others? It seems like a backwards concept, but consistency can be overrated in DFS. The dumbed down version: there’s not much profit in it since players will be priced correctly. If a quarterback scores 20 points every week, he’ll be priced at a point where a 20 point outing will not be a profitable one for DFS players. On the other hand if certain quarterbacks were more predictable than others on the basis of matchup (consistently performed poorly in tough matchups and well in easy matchups), there could be a lot of profit in that. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that matchups affect certain quarterbacks more so than others. If we can identify if/where these quarterbacks exist, it will certainly help in our decision making process.