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NFL DFS Strategy: Identifying Touchdown Over- and Underachievers

NFL DFS Strategy: Identifying Touchdown Over- and Underachievers
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NFL DFS Strategy: Identifying Touchdown Over- and Underachievers

Buy Low. Sell High. That’s perhaps one of the most overused phrases when it comes to Fantasy but its importance is undeniable. In DFS we aren’t actively trading players like we are in traditional season long leagues, but since it’s a salary cap format we’re still buying low and selling high by fading expensive players who have reached peak value and utilizing underpriced players whose production is bound to go up. Since Fantasy points stemming from touchdowns are so disproportionate relative to other stats (the one yard gained to get into the end zone is worth 6.1 points, which is equal to the amount of points for the previous 61 yards gained), a great way to spot sell high and buy low candidates is to identify players with fluky touchdown totals early on in the season. We can do that by analyzing a combination of red zone opportunities and historical TD rates.

Let’s start by looking at the TD leaders at each position.

Quarterback TD Leaders

G = Games

RZ Attempts = Red Zone Attempts

RZ TDs = Red Zone Touchdowns

Conversion Rate = Touchdowns per Red Zone Attempt (as a percentage)

TDs/G = Touchdowns per Game

RZ A/G = Red Zone Attempts per Game

RZ TD/G = Red Zone Touchdowns per Game

QB1

This data, particularly the last four columns, is very useful, but we need more information before we can draw firmer conclusions. Let’s now take a look at how each of these quarterback’s conversion rate differs from both their individual conversion rate since 2012 and the league average from 2012. Then we’ll be able to draw some conclusions:

QB2

Here’s some commentary that will show you the thought process we go through when evaluating this data. Football isn’t a linear game so there are a lot of moving parts that you have to try and capture at once. Following the commentary for each player, we’ll designate an action: Hold, Buy Low, or Sell High. Note that this is relative to their current Fantasy production and price isn’t taken into account for this exercise. When setting your lineups, price always needs to be taken into account.

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