NFL DFS Strategy: Should You Pay Up at RB or WR on FanDuel?
One of the cool new tools we’ve added this season is our Historical Production Tool. Simply put, this tool lets you see every player’s FanDuel and DraftKings production and salary for any specific week, starting with Week 1 of the 2015 regular season. Not only is this a lot of fun for simply piquing curiosity, but having this data readily available to us and easily sortable allows us to do a ton of macro analysis. Many questions we’ve tried to answer intuitively, we can now answer quantitatively.
While there are immediately a slew of things I want to do with this data, one of the simplest and most asked questions that I and subscribers ponder is this: does it make more sense to pay up for a RB or WR in cash games?
Obviously each week is unique in NFL DFS. You aren’t going to pay up at RB because some macro study tells you to when two minimum priced RBs step into starting jobs that week. However, understanding the best systemic strategies can help us find a small edge on weeks where we’re unsure the best way to construct rosters. So, to answer the “pay up at RB or WR” questions, let’s take a look at the top 100 scorers on FanDuel at each position for each of the past two seasons. We’ll use FanDuel since our Historical Production Tool also has salaries for the 2014 regular season, giving us a larger sample size.
Here are some things we will be looking out for:
- Do high priced RBs or WRs pay off their price tags more consistently?
- Since it’s a dynamic question, we can’t stop there. For example, high priced RBs might more consistently outscore high priced WRs. However, if mid-to-low priced RBs outscore mid-to-low priced WRs by an even larger margin, it’d actually be better from a roster construction standpoint to pay up at WR.
- Are there any obvious changes between 2014 and 2015?