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NFL DFS Strategy – Trust in the Value
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As Golden Tate scampered into the end zone on his way to a 35+ fantasy point outcome I couldn’t help but feel like I had failed. Again. For the second time in three weeks I had been presented with data and logic on why an underpriced and underperforming player was a great play and had GPP winning upside. Worse yet, I had received this information from people I trusted that were winning DFS players. To triple down on my depression I had listened to the exact same people and data on my way towards profitable weeks 1 through 4. The player was not going to be “chalk” and I still let my personal biases talk me off accepting this value. At first I thought it was fancy play syndrome but the more I watched others’ current winning balances climb and mine fall I realized that I had failed to trust in the value.

Then I thought, maybe there are others out there just like me.

Every week the team at DailyRoto led by Drew, Mike, and Chris put countless hours into refining the projections, updating roles and market share info to do the best job they can. You can’t know this, but I see it first hand in slack as they debate things like how to adjust Torrey Smith’s market share with Kaepernick instead of Gabbert and things of greater nuance. But was I over-reacting to missing out on one week or did I really have trust issues? Perhaps this was an isolated case of missed value.

When some people seek comfort they seek out chocolate, or ice cream, or wine or beer, but when I need DFS comfort I seek out to find data. Trudging through DailyRoto’s tools I went back to compile a comparison of every player’s weekly projections and then pull down the historical production data from the premium tools. This gave me a pretty awesome dataset in general to see how well the projections have performed (near 70% correlation) but I was seeking to cure a specific kind of pain – the value kind.

To set it in I focused on players projected above 3x salary value – these players generally are at least worth considering in cash games and often possess the ceilings to win GPPs or provide salary leaf to fit in some studs. I also focused primarily on the RB/WR/TE positions as ownership of quarterback’s on winning rosters is generally more diverse. Below are charts of each week’s top projected values above 3x salary along with their actual performance.

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