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NFL DFS WEEK 1: Leone’s What Ifs
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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In this article each week I’ll look start by looking at the best cash game plays ‘If things go the way they are supposed to’. In this section variance is for the birds and high ownerships be damned, we’re simply honing in on the highest probability plays of the week. Most of these suggestions will come from our on site projections, which are done by Drew Dinkmeyer and myself, focusing on the highest projected scorers both in terms of raw total and value.

After that we’ll get away from the chalk and take a look at what happens to player projections if we adjust our assumptions. To do this, I’ll be making changes to default player and team baselines by using our downloadable customizable projections. This will help us identify players with tournament winning upside who may go overlooked if we only view them through a conservative lens.

If things go the way they are supposed to…

Quarterback

Dak Prescott (DAL) ($5,00 FD, $5,000 FD) – Prescott’s ownership will be through the roof, but we’re not concerned about ownership in this section. He rates as the highest point per dollar performer on FanDuel in our projections and fourth best on DraftKings (best for QB on both sites).

There’s very little risk in this selection, which is odd to say given that an injury is forcing a fourth round draft pick into starting the very first start of the season. However, Prescott has been great this preseason (39/50 passing for 454 yards and five TD passes, two TD rushes, and no INTs) and has a variety of factors working in his favor that keep the floor high. For starters he runs. We’re almost always on cheap QBs who run because the rushing statistics create such a high floor. We currently have Prescott projected for 17 rushing yards and 0.07 rushing TDs. Those numbers, which are probably on the conservative end, give Prescott 2.12 Fantasy points via rushing statistics. Given that almost every quarterback in this day and age has a floor of around 200 passing yard, we’re starting with a baseline of around 10 Fantasy points. With nothing else, that puts Prescott at 2x (twice as many points as his cost), which is a solid floor, and there are a variety of ways he can get up to 3x (one rushing TD, two passing TDs, additional rushing/passing yardage). If any of those very reasonable outcomes happens in conjunction with one another, we’re looking at easily a 4x performance.

Also boosting Prescott’s floor is the remarkable situation he finds himself in for a rookie. He’s playing behind one of the game’s best offensive lines, with a running back who projects as elite in rushing, receiving, and pass-blocking, and he has a true #1 WR at his disposal (and elite red zone target) in Dez Bryant. As often happens Week 1, some mispriced players allow for a studs and duds lineup in cash games, and Prescott fits perfectly into that type of roster construction.

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