NFL DFS Week 10 DraftKings GPP Article: Expected Receiving PPR Points
Most weeks in this space, I’ve taken a look at simulations and probabilities in different forms to try and identify proper tournament exposures and potential spots to take contrarian stands. This week, I am going to switch it up a little bit and take a look at receiving options who may be over or undervalued by the market due to discrepancies between production and opportunity (positional sims will be available in Slack on Saturday night upon request).
We covered this back in Week 4, and now seems like a good time to revisit it, especially with us launching a page where you can look at some of our WR opportunity statistics: https://dailyroto.com/nfl-air-yards-and-advanced-receiving-statistics/
Each week, I run a model based on play by play data from NFLscrapR to help us make tweaks to our individual efficiency baselines. It’s a difficult task because efficiency can be so volatile for a lot of reasons – changing context, sample size, noise, etc.
One of the methods I use in this process is to figure out a player’s expected TD rate, catch rate, and YPT (yards per target) based solely on opportunity. I’ve trained a model that compares the air yards and yard line of every target to determine the expected efficiency in the aforementioned three areas for that target. I can then take the average of the expected rates for each individual target to arrive at the expected rates overall for each player. From there, it’s simple math to derive total expectations for touchdowns, catches, and yardage.
For the purpose of this article, I have further converted the touchdown, catch, and yard expectations into Expected PPR points.
Also, prior to last season, I wrote a bit about how this model works and how some conclusions can be drawn: https://dailyroto.com/wide-receiver-projections-fun-with-air-yards-and-efficiency/
Before we delve into the specific data for this season, there is one very important caveat. These expected metrics are based solely on opportunity, so context such as player skill, QB skill, and strength of schedule are not factored in. As a result, it’s a very good starting point, but you will want to be cognizant of other pieces of context that could explain why a player hasn’t achieved up to expectations thus far. It’s also important to remember that past opportunity doesn’t guarantee future opportunity.
|Player||Expected PPR||Actual PPR||Differential|
|Michael Thomas (NO)||150.0||184.5||34.5|
|Keenan Allen (LAC)||149.6||130.7||-18.9|
|Cooper Kupp (LAR)||142.8||167.3||24.5|
|Julian Edelman (NE)||140.2||134.4||-5.8|
|Deandre Hopkins (HOU)||139.3||139.7||0.4|
|Mike Evans (TB)||134.8||140.2||5.4|