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NFL DFS Week 10 GPP Recaps

NFL DFS Week 10 GPP Recaps
BENYAMEN
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Fantasy Football is an unpredictable game, but some things have run like clockwork in 2020: game stacks winning a million dollars on DraftKings, disappointing performances from highly owned RBs, and late game plays drastically shifting leaderboards. Week 10 in the 2020 NFL DFS season was no different as an Arizona/Buffalo game stack won a million, Aaron Jones, Mike Davis, and Duke Johnson fell well short of expectations, and Deandre Hopkins late hail-mary catch changed a lot of people’s fortunes. In other news, Russ continues to cook but he is serving more interceptions than touchdowns recently, with nine his past four games. Ironically, the Seahawks no longer have a capable running back left on the roster, or Pete Carroll’s experiment in the kitchen may have burned out a while ago.

DraftKings

NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire

The million-dollar winner on DraftKings in Week 10 was “meaganjoy” with a score of 218.50 points. Their “single stack and bring one back” with Kyler Murray, Deandre Hopkins, and Cole Beasley was the heart of the big win. With the high owned RBs failing again, having a contrarian lineup with five players below 5% ownership was a significant leg up on the competition. “Stars and Scrubs” won the day again with three roster spots below $4K in salary and three players at $7700 or higher. This was the second max entry winner of the contest this season with 150 lineups in play.

A look through the batch of 150 lineups shows a minimum “single stack and bring one back” build rule with the majority of lineups including double stacks. Stacks included 82 Josh Allen lineups and 50 Kyler Murray lineups and then a handful of lineups using seven other quarterbacks. The strategy to be grossly overweight on the most popular game environment of the week paid off big time in Week 10.

Player Exposure Ownership
Kyler Murray 34.0% 18.6%
Alvin Kamara 10.7% 13.5%
Josh Jacobs 12.7% 4.5%
Diontae Johnson 4.0% 4.3%
Deandre Hopkins 93.3% 16.1%
Cole Beasley 28.7% 4.5%
Logan Thomas 12.0% 3.5%
Josh Reynolds 5.3% 10.8%
Cleveland DST 8.0% 3.5%

There are a lot of great overweight positions in that lineup that should have led to an unbelievably profitable Sunday. To be double the field on Murray, triple the field on Jacobs, and quintuple the field on Beasley is quite a profitable place to be. To have been 93.3% Hopkins though going into that final play would have made that last second hail-mary catch a surreal moment to say the least.

NFL $250K Game Changer [$50K to 1st, Single Entry]

In the world of high stakes single entry contests on DraftKings, “Awesemo” was the big winner with a score of 182.16 points. Their “double stack and bring no one back” with Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley marked the second week in a row that there was no game stack correlation in the winning lineup. Allen and Diggs were both in the top seven owned players in the contest but going the double stack route with Beasley, while ignoring Hopkins coming back the other way, made this a unique build. Their lineup was also marked by a secondary stack with Kamara and the Saints DST, along with a mini stack of another expected high scoring affair with Henry from the Chargers facing Parker from the Dolphins. The Saints DST was the highest owned DST in the contest (25%) at just $3K while facing a depleted San Francisco lineup featuring Nick Mullens under center.

With four players in the lineup carrying single digit ownership in the contest – two of which were sub 3% – Awesemo built a fairly contrarian winner by avoiding playing more than one of Mike Davis, Duke Johnson, and Aaron Jones that ate up a combined 162% of ownership in the contest. While Jones didn’t have a horrendous outing, since returning from injury, he is losing more touches than before to Jamaal Williams and likely doesn’t carry as safe a floor as he once did.

Fanduel

$1.75M NFL Sunday Million ($300K to 1st)

On Fanduel, “phbabe” was the big MME winner with a score of 200.16 points. Their “double stack and bring no one back” with Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley carried no game stack correlations. As he was on DraftKings, Cole Beasley was a low owned difference maker in big money lineups, carrying just 2.5% ownership while producing 4x value. The secondary stack of Josh Jacobs and the Raiders DST was also a very profitable combination. In all, the lineup carried just two players that were above double-digit ownership and still scored a combined 14 total touchdowns.

Pro Spotlight

With a big single-entry win on DraftKings, “Awesemo” is in the pro spotlight for Week 10. They also had a top 500 finish in DraftKings Fantasy Football Millionaire. Their 481st place finish was built around a “double stack and bring no one back” with Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley. That trio was a recurring theme in winning lineups across the industry in Week 10.

A look at the 150 lineups in the contest reveals a minimum single stack rule, with some double stacks, and no particular rule for game stack correlations. In all, 16 different quarterbacks were stacked around in the lineup set, with Tua Tagovailoa being the most stacked quarterback in the set (72). Their other top 15 exposures broke down like this:

Player Exposure Ownership
Devante Parker 80.7% 11.8
Mike Davis 69.3% 40.8%
Tua Tagovailoa 48.0% 6.2%
Chase Claypool 47.3% 6.7%
Mike Gesicki 44.7% 4.1%
Alvin Kamara 42.0% 13.5%
Davante Adams 38.0% 19.4%
Keenan Allen 32.0% 23.7%
Stefon Diggs 19.3% 21.3%
Michael Thomas 18.7% 14.5%
Terry McLaurin 18.7% 10.8%
Philadelphia DST 18.0% 6.1%
New Orleans DST 18.0% 22.1%
D’Andre Swift 16.7% 6.5%
DeAndre Hopkins 14.0% 16.1%

Congratulations to all the big winners in Week 10 of the 2020 NFL DFS season!

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