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NFL DFS Week 11 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 11 GPP Recaps
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Sunday marked the second time this season Josh Allen (BUF) and the Bills were tasked with facing the lowly Dolphins and Allen happened to be coming off his highest fantasy scoring week of the season. A week ago, Allen completed just 22-41 passes for 266 passing yards but he rushed six times for 28 yards and a touchdown (TD). In fact, he had rushed for a score in back-to-back weeks heading into Week 11 which proved to be a premonition of what was to come. When the smoke cleared this week, Allen completed 21-33 passes for 256 yards and three scores plus he also rushed for an eight-yard score in the third quarter (and finished with 56 rushing yards in total). Both Dak Prescott (DAL) and Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) out-scored Allen this week but rostering Allen naturally correlated with John Brown (BUF) who scored more fantasy points than any other receiver this week. On the DailyRoto podcast, every time Allen is discussed, Brown is suggested to pair with him, because when Brown succeeds, he often takes the top off the defense. This week, it finally happened, and the Allen/Brown duo were on a majority of winning teams.

On DK, user and DailyRoto subscriber “nhpain” rode the Allen-Brown stack to $1 Million and he actually deployed the full Bills onslaught stack. Outside of the QB-WR duo, nhpain added Devin Singletary (BUF) to the mix, who actually posted a disappointing 8.9 fantasy points. However, the rest of the lineup was nearly perfect as every single other offensive player managed at least 23.5 fantasy points including DeVante Parker (MIA). In this article, there seems to be a new roster strategy that wins every single week, as there had yet to be an onslaught stack deployed as part of a full game stack that has taken anything down of note. Of course, that changed this week, when the QB-RB-WR trio on the Bills mixed with a WR in the run-back won the $3M Millionaire contest on DK. Congratulations to nhpain for this beauty of a lineup:

In the $1.11M Wildcat on DK, user “ChipotleAddict” not only won the contest, but he ended with a whopping four lineups in the top eight and six in the top 14. His top lineup did not even rely on Allen as he used a cheap Jeff Driskel (DET) paired with teammate Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) and run back with multiple Cowboys: Jason Witten (DAL) and Randall Cobb (DAL). Of the four players used from that single game stack, Driskel was the highest-owned at 4.5-percent, so it almost did not matter that ChipotleAddict also ate the Christian McCaffery (CAR) and Josh Jacobs (OAK) running back (RB) chalk. Oh, and ChipotleAddict was sharp enough to add John Brown in as a one-off in this lineup as well, which is the reason he did not need Allen. Here was the lineup he rode all the way to the top:

The $1.8M Sunday Million on FD was won by user “rico70” who, of course, rolled out the Allen-Brown stack but rostered just two total players besides Brown who were at least double-digit owned. Alvin Kamara (NO), D.J. Chark (JAC), Zach Ertz (PHI), Stefon Diggs (MIN) and the Oakland Raiders Defense all came in at under 9.8-percent ownership and, strangely, neither Kamara nor Ertz found the end zone. The four wide receivers (WRs) combined carried the load as they all managed to find the end zone and gain over 100 receiving yards. In both Chark and Brown’s cases, they topped 100 yards and scored twice. In what proved to be a low-scoring week in the FD Million contest, imperfection was good enough, and rico70 still shipped with over four fantasy points to spare:

In the $1M MEGA MONSTER, “moklovin” won with a score of just 184.24, which is about 15 points lower than the winner of this contest on most weeks. Leonard Fournette (JAC) only totaled 57 yards from scrimmage but did not hold the user back as he deployed a 0.9-percent owned Atlanta Falcons Defense. Virtually every piece of the Carolina offense proved to be chalky so the Falcons defense was a huge source of leverage for moklovin and every other user who deployed them. Kyle Allen (CAR) struggled all day long and the Falcons finished with five sacks and four interceptions, including one for a score, as they only allowed three points. Fading Panthers (not named McCaffery) was a winning strategy in itself but using the Falcons defense took that strategy to the next level of game theory.

Once again, I posted a big score on FantasyDraft this week, and this was the week where I finally shipped it. DailyRoto tools loved Randall Cobb (DAL) as a cheap option, and when I boosted my McCaffery exposure, Cobb popped into nearly 20-percent of lineups as a logical salary relief option alongside the Panthers workhorse. After setting my Allen-Brown rule, this was one of the lineups the optimizer spit out, and this lineup won by more than double-digits.

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “jprellezo” was selected due to his success (as his top lineup finished third in the Millionaire). When all said and done, jprellzo most heavily exposed himself to Dede Westbrook (JAC) and D.J. Moore (CAR); neither of which found their way into winning lineups this week (and Westbrook was a total bust). This week’s user took a bold stance on those two receivers, although Moore was chalky, and then his next highest exposures were all the chalky backs of the week and then Michael Thomas (NO). Basically, he built around most of the chalk he liked, and mixed and matched with stacks (which is similarly to how I approach many weeks in my builds). Here were the players he was most heavily exposed to (in order):

  1. Dede Westbrook (44.7-percent)
  2. D.J. Moore (44.7-percent)
  3. Josh Jacobs (42.0-percent)
  4. Miles Sanders (40.7-percent)
  5. Christian McCaffery (38.0-percent)
  6. Brian Hill (37.3-percent)
  7. Michael Thomas (34.7-percent)
  8. Minnesota Defense (29.3-percent)
  9. Deebo Samuel (28.7-percent)
  10. Dallas Goedert (28.7-percent)
  11. New Orleans Defense (26.0-percent)
  12. Kyle Allen (25.3-percent)
  13. Raheem Mostert (24.0-percent)
  14. Alvin Kamara (23.3-percent)
  15. Kalen Ballage (22.7-percent)

The obvious noteworthy aspect to his build was commitments to some chalk bust RBs such as Sanders and Hill. The Vikings defense disappointed as well but the hefty exposure to McCaffery and Thomas certainly helped jprezello’s cause. Despite those heavy positions on chalky players, only two players from his third place lineup proved to be higher than 9.6-percent owned (McCaffery and Samuel)! Nice work, jprezello.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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