NFL DFS Week 11 Picks
Oh, David Johnson. You looked like a bathtub running out there. Oh, Kliff Kingsbury. You utter fool! Oh, Cardinals beat writers. YOU LIARS!!!! Okay, I got that out of the way. Last week was one of the optimizer’s best efforts of the season, especially if you listened to the value smash spots and paid up for your RBs. Let’s keep the trend of simplicity going and stay hot on QB picks! SCROLL DOWN, BABY!
What more can we say about the guy? He’s had one of the best floors among QBs thanks to his unbelievable rushing prowess. He’s also somehow pushed his ceiling even further by improving dramatically as a passer. No longer does he look to escape the pocket and try to gain rushing yards. Jackson stands strong in the pocket and has delivered missiles all over the field, especially from 10 yards in. That’s allowed Jackson and the Ravens to dictate the pace of the game, making their play-action calls even more dangerous now Jackson can light up any defensive mistakes with accurate passes. Blitzes also haven’t fazed Jackson, as he’s currently 4th in best QB rating while under pressure! He’s essentially match-up proof at this point, so it comes down to whether or not you like the value plays on the slate. Whatever your decision might be on paying up or not, one thing’s for sure – Jackson is the new Mahomes of fantasy. Fade at your own risk (even if fading QBs is significantly easier than other positions BUT I DIGRESS!).
Yes, he was a major let-down with a stinker in a smash spot at home versus a bottom three pass defense. It was a total upset by the Falcons and something no one really expected. The thing with Brees is it appears he’s been struggling against pressure since he came back from his injury, coming in with a nice 69 rating against pressure (would rank 14th among QBs) in his last two starts. He’s still playing at an elite level otherwise, which leads me to believe that Brees will more than likely hit another 300-yard day against a dreadful Bucs pass defense that’s been DB purgatory all season. They’re getting thrown at the highest rate, allowed the 3rd most passing yards to opposing QBs, and would be 1st in points given up if not for the laughable Cardinals secondary taking that spot instead. Another reason why Brees ended up being a top play for me is Tampa Bay has been bottom ten in explosive plays allowed – something Brees has somewhat struggled with this season. Facing the Bucs defense just might be the cure that ails the lack of deep passing from Brees, especially if the Bucs run defense continues its pass-funnel defense (27th pass, 1st run defense). Road splits be damned! Attack the Bucs pass defense at all costs!
I’ve mentioned it before but it bears repeating since Carr continues to pop as a value play nearly every week. Carr is playing like a top 5 QB if you ignore his total yardage. He’s now 1st in QB rating under pressure, 2nd in adjusted completion percentage, and is now in the top 10 among QBs in YPA. His increased YPA over the past month has been a static trend, which has immensely boosted his fantasy value since he’s no longer taking the 2-3 yard dump-offs over deep shots. His game last week against the Chargers broke a mini 3 game streak of at least 2 TD passes and 285+ yards. I expect that average from Carr in most good match-ups if we’re to believe his current monthly trend. He’ll get a Bengals defense that has absolutely no identity anywhere, ranks dead last DVOA in both overall and pass defense, and has a dude named Ryan Finley starting at QB. All we need from Carr is to continue pacing at the 8th highest YPA while relying on the strong play from Josh Jacobs to set up the play-action, something Carr has excelled at thus far (8th best QB rating). Just like the Bucs pass defense, attack the Bengals defense at all costs! ATTACK!
BOOST ‘EM UP!
What a game from Allen last week! He’s certainly proved to be the QB of the future for the Panthers, yet he’s still priced well below his capabilities. That could be explained by his lack of real stats with a middling 228 passing yards per game average and only 10 TD passes thrown across 7 games. Gross. Still, Allen has been a stable presence for an offense that’s put up a 26 PPG average while Allen has been the starter. They’ve had to lean on Allen’s arm lately with teams heavily keying on CMC and trying to force the Panthers into passing situations. Allen’s been pretty decent against exploitable pass defenses with 8 of his 10 TDs coming against currently ranked bottom 10 DVOA pass defenses. I suspect the Panthers have much more confidence in Allen’s ability to lead them down the field and should be less reliant on a heavy dosage of CMC. That seems like a good plan to test out against a 31st DVOA Falcons pass defense to gauge Allen’s skill-set if they choose to open up the playbook for him. The Panthers could very well dial back the passing game and simply let CMC run wild as they’ve done so in past games. In that scenario, Allen would be barely negligible at best as a fantasy QB with his season averages, so a little risk here is to be expected. I’ll leave his projections alone but adjust for the inherent risk with a 20 volatility boost.
Unfadeable until further notice. Come back when he faces a real defense then we’ll talk.
It may come to a surprise for some people but the Detroit Lions have been gashed by RBs lately. They’re now giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing RBs, yet most people seem to ignore taking RBs against them. The Lions not only are getting pushed upfield with the 10th most rushing yards allowed, but they just cannot cover any athletic RB at all on pass routes (3rd most receiving yards allowed and T-1st TDs). We all know the story with the Cowboys and Elliott. They’ll feed him even when they shouldn’t with 4 straight 20+ touch games for Elliott. For the most part, that’s worked out for both the Cowboys and Elliott as it resulted in a three-game streak of at least 100+ total yards up until last week. As long as Zeke gets his usual 20+ touches and sees more than a few targets, he should be able to eat up a bad run defense that nobody knows about. True bellcow play!
Yeah, it’s the chalk cheap RB play of the week. Is it a good one? Probably not, but chances are he’ll get plenty of touches to get there for the fish. No Freeman, possibly no Hooper, dead last DVOA run defense, and coming off a 20+ touch game. All arrows are trending up for Hill to have at the very least a 2x day at his price across all sites. There’s really no downside here other than….well, the chalk. Do you fade his ownership in favor of….no one? We’re unfortunately on a week where there’s a clear lack of RB values to pivot towards in fading Hill. Just take the free square and move on different 1v1s/2v2s that should decide the top tier lineups rather than wracking your brain on the best pivot and end up entering dummy lineups while passed out drunk. Spoiler alert – the best pivot is Ronald Jones. Nah, it’s actually Sony Michel. Nah, nah. It’s really JOE MIXON!
BOOST ‘EM UP!
While Mack was a disappointment in a great spot against a soft Miami defense, it appears that Flores is a defensive savant who refuses to tank (anymore?). Hoyer was absolutely hot garbage juice in the game, which limited the Colts’ offensive drives as they stalled out way too often. Mack was still able to keep his streak going with at least 20 touches with his 5th straight. That number should go up to 6 after Mack rampages the Jags run defense that used to be an early-season spot to take advantage of. Some may have forgotten the lack of a strong interior push from the Jaguars DL since most teams choose to pass against them (9th fewest rush attempts). Even with teams running less against them, the Jaguars run defense still allows the 4th highest YPC and ranks 24th in DVOA. It’s a sneaky good spot for a run-heavy Colts team looking to rebound from an embarrassing loss, and it’ll likely require a strong Mack performance. I really like the upside of Mack in what should be a competitive game between two run-heavy teams that allow many explosive plays on runs (6th/12th most IND/JAX respectively). 15 boost for a positive play on the projections and maybe a small volatility boost just in case the Colts are still reeling from the Miami loss.
MT is bordering on AB status with his PPR ridiculousness play this season. He hauled in 13 catches on 14 targets for 152 scoreless yards last week, pushing his current reception number to 86 – most all-time for any WR through 9 games. He’s on pace to shatter Marvin Harrison’s record (as stated last week) and gets yet another beautiful spot against a Bucs D that has done a better job covering Jameis Winston’s crab leg scandals than opposing receivers. It’s worth noting that Thomas’ price has skyrocketed to near CMC levels, which puts Thomas into fade territory. There’s no need for further superlatives in regards to MT’s fantasy viability as he’s proven to be as consistent as they come. It all comes down to value once again and on a week with more WR values than usual, I’m okay with an MT fade if you’d rather spend up a little at QB or RB. There’s no questioning on who’s the top WR play this week though.
Ah, there you are again. Last week’s value WR play came in through clutch with a 9/120 line on 11 targets, pushing himself even further as the true #1 WR. He’s still out-pacing fellow WR Chris Samuel in air yards and aDOT over the last month and a half while seeing nearly double the number of targets. Moore just has had more chemistry with Allen and has been getting peppered all over the field. The increase in air yards/aDOT also means Moore has added more to his once limited route tree as Allen/Moore get more comfortable in their roles. That’s good news against an Atlanta secondary giving up the 7th most explosive pass plays with the 7th most fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs. Stay on the Moore train while his price continues to be way lower in relation to his recent production!
Remember when I talked about how awful the Bengals defense had been at limiting explosive plays? Well, they did it again against the Ravens with a 4/80/1 line to Marquise Brown. The Bengals’ pass defense continues to pace as one of the worst at defending the deep pass, with an absurd 16.4 YPC, the highest explosive pass rate, and the most 20+ passes allowed out of anyone. All good things for one of the premier deep threats in the league in Tyrell Williams. While Tyrell started the season with a bang and had hauled in a TD in 5 straight games, he did get injured and had to miss some time which slowed down his hot pace. In the 3 games since returning from injury, Williams ranks top 20 in aDOT, air yards, and air yards per target. He currently has 31% of the team’s total air yards as the clear deep threat target for Carr. An increased focus on melding the deep attack with the run game should lead to bigger pass plays for Williams behind the ever-improving arm of Carr’s.
BOOST ‘EM UP!
Do you know which team has allowed the most catches to opposing WRs? HEY! DON’T YOU DARE GOOGLE IT! Listen, the point I’m making here is the Vikings defense has actually legitimately been horrid against every single WR group they’ve faced thus far. Most catches, 4th most yards, and T-1st in TDs allowed. And they’re still considered a top 10 defense (8th overall DVOA). Chances are the Vikings won’t fix what ain’t broke, which would be good news for Sutton purely from a DFS standpoint. I’m not worried about how bad the Vikings will stomp the Broncos nor the potential for a Brandon Allen goose egg. All I care about is how ineffective the Vikings secondary has been at slowing down opposing WRs. Sutton currently owns 42% (!) of the team’s air yards, ranks 24th in total air yards despite bad QB play, and has an 11.4 aDOT. Toss in 25% MS of the team’s targets as the cherry on top of a delicious Sutton sundae for Sunday! Game script may also dictate that the Broncos end up having to throw more as they get down early. Whatever may or may not happen, Sutton is clearly in a sneaky spot to blow up at low ownership. Good enough for me! 20 boost and 40 volatility for me.
Hmm…no Kelce? No Hooper? No Engram? Not even Tony Gonzalez? Rough week to pay up for a TE as Waller looks to be the most obvious (and only) choice. Bengals D is bad, Waller is good and leads the team in target share, decently priced for his floor/upside, and so on. You get the point. The Raiders stack is one of the most affordable team stacks across most sites, so it’s no surprise that we have three Raiders as a play somewhere on here. Realistically, you’re picking between Cook/Ertz/Andrews as the other TE plays. Might as well pick Waller for the biggest upside among the four.
The squeaky wheel gets the grease. Ebron complained about his limited role despite generally being a bad player on most of his snaps before the Miami game. For all of his whining, Ebron was thusly fed with 12 targets the following week. Sure, he had an easy TD grab that turned into an awful interception as he was falling down BUT he did get 12 targets for a 5/56 line! Jack Doyle ended up splitting snap count with Ebron last week and is coming into the Jags game a little banged up. If Ebron continues to thwart Doyle in routes run while nearing his 60% snap rate against Miami, there’s no reason Ebron can’t flirt with 2x upside in a decent match-up and Jacoby Brissett back under the helm. No Parris Campbell or T.Y. Hilton either to take away targets!
BOOST ‘EM UP!
It’s a true dart throw here! Goedert has actually been out-pacing Ertz in terms of routes run per snap and has seen his snap percentage steadily rise into the 70s as the Eagles have essentially turned Zach Ertz into their slot receiver (43% routes in the slot). The Eagles have run 12 personnel 40% of the time and have had decidedly more success running 2 TE packages than basically any other personnel packaging. With how well the Patriots have covered opposing WRs and their general stout pass defense, one would think the TE duo would be the key for the Eagles passing game instead of Jeffery and whatever other garbage they have out wide. Or maybe not? Who knows, but 70%+ of the team’s snaps and an increased passing role (61 to 92 routes run between Goedert/Ertz last 4 games compared to 57/124 the 4 games prior) with a higher YPR/R can only be good things going forward for Goedert. I’m not even gonna bother with any boosts as it’s truly a dart throw….but if Goedert goes off and you win a million because of it? I’ll gladly accept 10% of all winnings as a charitable donation towards the 2ToN fund!