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NFL DFS Week 12 GPP Recaps

NFL DFS Week 12 GPP Recaps
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Who knew spending up for a nearly $10K RB at nearly 50% ownership could be a mistake on DraftKings?

The big winners in Week 12 in NFL DFS all passed on Cook and leveraged themselves against his failure using pieces of the Vikings passing attack instead. The differences in scoring between DraftKings and Fanduel ultimately decided which low priced RB was the one to have – Hines on DraftKings and Murray on Fanduel – but going cheap at RB was certainly the winning formula in Week 12 as many cheap RBs had solid days and allowed players to spend up for the high salary WRs and RBs that had ceiling performances.

DraftKings

NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire

On DraftKings, the million-dollar lineup this week came from “pickedtherightscrub” with a score of 253.32 points. It’s interesting that with Dalvin Cook being 41.63% owned at $9500 and only producing 11.2 points that scoring was higher than it had been in a month. Their “single stack and bring one back” with Mayfield, Landry, and James Robinson was the core of the lineup. While Landry and Robinson both had 30 point performances as part of that game stack, the big benefit it provided was the salary relief from the Mayfield/Landry stack that provided the cap space to include Henry and Hill who combined for a whopping 102.4 points. Mayfield and Landry were both sub 3% owned versus the Jaguars which tells you everything you need to know about the public’s perspective on the Brown passing game despite their record.

In all, “pickedtherightscrub” had 12 entries in the contest. The winning lineup was their only Mayfield stack in the lineup set. All lineups were at least single stacked, with some double stacks, except for one naked Taysom Hill and only two lineups included a bring back from the opposing team.

Player Exposure Ownership
Baker Mayfield 8.3% 1.2%
Derrick Henry 25.0% 7.0%
Nyheim Hines 25.0% 29.0%
Tyreek Hill 25.0% 21.6%
Justin Jefferson 33.0% 20.8%
Jarvis Landry 16.7% 3.0%
Kyle Rudolph 25.0% 12.0%
James Robinson 16.7% 12.3%
New Orleans DST 58.3% 26.6%

There was some good fortune involved in having all these pieces come together in one lineup with 45 total players spread out over only 12 lineups. That said, they were well overweight on every player in the winning lineup, so “pickedtherightscrub” was certainly looking in the right directions. They were slightly underweight on Dalvin Cook at only 33.3% but avoiding Brian Hill completely at 22.84% ownership was a big win.

NFL $300K Game Changer [$50K to 1st, Single Entry]

In the world of high stakes single entry contests on DraftKings, “BBosse22” was the big winner of $50K with a score of 224.78 points. Their “double stack and bring no one back” with Cousins, Jefferson, and Rudolph was the core of their winning formula. Opting for the Vikings double stack while fading $9500 55.17% owned Cook provided excellent leverage on an expected high scoring offence in Week 12. Their mini stack of the expected high scoring affair between the Bills and Chargers included Gabriel Davis and Keenan Allen. While Allen had an off day by his standards with only four receptions for 16 points, Gabriel Davis had a 5x+ day providing 16.9 points on a minimum priced $3K salary. Austin Ekeler was the real high scoring beneficiary of the game environment as he had 11 receptions in his first game back from injury. Derrick Henry proved to once again be the Kevin Na of NFL DFS: you are either a Henry player or you aren’t. Trying to guess which weeks he will go off and break a slate are impossible to predict, so players just have to roll him out every week or fade him every week. The matchup with the Colts wasn’t a clear opportunity for a huge game but he provided one anyways at only 6.4% ownership.

It was the best of times and the worst of times for highly owned players as Hines (55.17%) and Hill (34.98) were both in the top four owned players and had great games, while Dalvin Cook (55.72%) and Brian Hill (42.4%) were significant flops. The pair of Cook and Hill’s combined scores didn’t even reach that of Hines. Thankfully, having avoided Cook made the miss on Hill over Hines survivable. In this, the year of the punt TE, Kyle Rudolph was just the newest king maker. At this point, the rule with TEs is correlation over projection nearly ever week.

Fanduel

$2M NFL Sunday Million ($500K to 1st)

On Fanduel, the big MME winner of $500K was “maczacpac” with a score of 229.68 points. Scoring was up a lot on Fanduel as well this week over past weeks, as last week’s MME winner scored under 200 points. Their “single stack and bring no one back” of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill combined for six of the thirteen total touchdowns scored in the lineup. Surprisingly given the relatively high score, that’s one of the fewest total touchdowns in an MME winning lineup on Fanduel this season as most winners are in the 16-18 total TD range. The massive yardage outputs from Mahomes and Hill, coupled with 28 points from the Atlanta DST in their dismantling of the Raiders made for an atypical route to a win on Fanduel.

Unlike on DraftKings where Nyheim Hines was the cheap RB to have given his eight receptions, Latavius Murray was the cheap RB to have on Fanduel given his two touchdowns. It’s old news but keeping the scoring system in mind is essential when evaluating players on different sites.

Pro Spotlight

The Week 12 pro spotlight shines on “CSURAM88”, with his top 10 finish in the NFL $300K Game Changer on DraftKings. His “single stack and bring two back” with Mahomes and Tyreek Hill with Gronkowski and Antonio Brown coming back the other way led to a score of 213.88 points. Fading Dalvin Cook was the first key to the day. Going Hines over Brian Hill was the second. Despite missing on Antonio Bryant, it was still a profitable build. While the Parker/Mims mini stack from the Dolphins versus Jets game didn’t blow up, each provided more than fair value in rounding out the lineup.

In MME, “CSURAM88” had six entries including 38 players in the NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire on DraftKings. Given how top-heavy MME contests have become in recent years, a lot of tournament players have opted out of the lottery style tournaments or at least cut back their total entries significantly. It’s fair to say that even full-blown tournament players have had to find wiser ways towards profitability than just running 150 lineups to chase a million dollars each week. In Week 12, his player pool exposure looked like this:

Player Exposure Ownership
Nyheim Hines 83.3% 29.0%
Josh Jacobs 50.0% 12.6%
AJ Brown 50.0% 2.6%
Calvin Ridley 50.0% 17.2%
James Robinson 33.3% 12.3%
Travis Kelce 33.3% 24.1%
Ryan Fitzpatrick 33.3% 11.2%
DeVante Parker 33.3% 17.5%
Brian Hill 33.3% 22.8%
Dalvin Cook 33.3% 41.6%
Kareem Hunt 16.7% 11.9%
Jordan Wilkins 16.7% 4.9%
Corey Davis 16.7% 3.5%
Darren Waller 16.7% 21.1%
Sterling Shepard 16.7% 4.9%

The near lock on Hines was a big win in the player pool, as was the underweight position on Cook. The heavy overweight positions on Jacobs and Ridley likely held down his upside but being well overweight on Hines, Brown, and Robinson likely helped salvage the day. Ryan Fitzpatrick was also a good spot to go cheap with at QB versus the Jets to allow for spending up on high upside WRs but the lack of Tyreek Hill and Derrick Henry in the lineup set would have been tough to overcome.

Congratulations to all the big winners in Week 12 of NFL DFS!

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