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NFL DFS Week 12 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 12 GPP Recaps
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Sometimes, the top scoring quarterback (QB) is not necessary on a slate because the receivers in the stack fail, and that was the case on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill (TEN) was cheap across the industry, and actually outscored Baker Mayfield (CLE), but Mayfield was the one who also propelled multiple receivers to at least 84 yards and a score. In Jarvis Landry’s (CLE) case, he caught 10-13 targets from Mayfield en route to 148 yards and two touchdowns (TDs). Tannehill did have a receiver who topped 100 yards and scored, A.J. Brown (TEN), but he was virtually unowned and many who rostered Tannehill likely felt the need to double-stack him. Rostering Tannehill also likely led to fading Derrick Henry (TEN) in the same lineup and he was present in most of the winning lineups on both sites. This was a tricky week due to tighter pricing, especially on DK, and Mayfield proved to be the answer to this week’s riddle.

On DK, user “Nam2312” survived Bo Scarbrough’s (DET) 8.8 fantasy point dud to take home $1 Million. He did so by single-stacking Mayfield with Landry and adding the team’s starting running back (RB) to the mix as well: Nick Chubb (CLE). Despite the fact Chubb caught just three passes, he did rush for over 100-yards and score in a game where the offense scored 40-plus points. Onslaught stacks should only be deployed in games where offenses score over 40-points, as we discuss on the DailyRoto podcast all the time, and this was one of those times where such a construction paid off. Nam2312 decided to take some salary relief at RB2 (Scarbrough), WR3 and tight end (TE), and while Scarbrough disappointed, James Washington (PIT) and Jared Cook (NO) did not. Washington needed a QB change to get him going but he scored a long TD and barely missed the 100-yard bonus. Cook also missed the 100-yard bonus by just one yard but he finished as TE2 on the slate and was $1,500 cheaper than TE1. Here was the lineup that propelled Nam2312 to glory:

In the Wildcat, “JMToWin” ran a Mayfield single-stack back with not one but two Dolphins pass-catchers: Allen Hurns (MIA) and DeVante Parker (MIA). At just $3,300, Hurns only needed to find the end zone to pay off for his price point…and he did. Projecting the Browns to get ahead early and force the Dolphins to pass from behind was an ingenious strategy, and due to the higher stakes nature of the contest, there was more room for error. Phillip Lindsay (DEN) did not even crack double-digit fantasy points but Chris Godwin (TB) broke the slate as a one-off and JMToWin had enough of the top pieces of the slate to ship:

Over on FD, the Sunday Million winner, “oconnopj,” rolled out a remarkably balanced lineup in the sense that every offensive player scored at least once and gained at least 85 yards from scrimmage. Chalky Calvin Ridley (ATL) was the weak link in the lineup and he caught six passes for 85 yards and a score. Only D.J. Moore (CAR) and the Cowboys Defense came in at under 10-percent ownership but Ridley and Zach Ertz (PHI) were the only players at least 20-percent owned as well. This lineup was won by the Mayfield-Landry single-stack without a run-back whatsoever. Typically there is a shaky correlation between starting RBs on opposite sides of a projected low-scoring game, which is why Drew Dinkmeyer added this rule to his run, but oconnopj led the Fournette/Henry build to a $300,000 first prize.

In the Monster, user “hossdaboss” won with a score over 30 fantasy points lower than that produced by the winner of the Sunday Million. Hossdaboss’ lineup was the only one discussed in this week’s article that deployed Mayfield with both his starting receivers and he also chose to run it back with Parker. An expensive Michael Thomas (NO) was not nearly as chalky as usual and ho hum he caught another 10 passes for 101 yards and a score. It was amazing that oconnopj was able to win the Sunday Million without the chalky, minimum-priced Redskins defense on FD like hossdaboss used in this contest. Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) barely missed a TD early in the game but it luckily did not cost hossdaboss who still won the Monster by exactly five fantasy points:

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “tomjk321” was selected due to his success (as his top lineup finished 16th in the Millionaire). When all said and done, tomjk321 most heavily exposed himself to Alvin Kamara (NO) and Leonard Fournette (JAX). This is a familiar strategy to me because it is a similar one to the one I deploy on a weekly basis in mass-multi entry (MME) runs: go heavy on the preferred workhorse backs of the week and differentiate elsewhere. This week’s user took a bold stance on the cheap Denver Broncos Defense and a 5.8-percent owned Darren Waller (OAK). Here were the players he was most heavily exposed to (in order):

  1. Alvin Kamara (98.0-percent)
  2. Leonard Fournette (50.0-percent)
  3. Denver Defense (49.3-percent)
  4. Darren Waller (43.3-percent)
  5. Zach Ertz (35.3-percent)
  6. Le’Veon Bell (26.7-percent)
  7. Isaiah McKenzie (24.0-percent)
  8. Demaryius Thomas (23.3-percent)
  9. Nick Chubb (20.7-percent)
  10. Julio Jones (20.0-percent)
  11. Cincinnati Defense (19.3-percent)
  12. Anthony Miller (18.7-percent)
  13. Albert Wilson (18.0-percent)
  14. Ryan Tannehill (17.3-percent)
  15. Derrick Henry (16.7-percent)

The obvious noteworthy aspect to his build was commitments to cheap plays at both defense and receiver. With a preference for expensive backs like Kamara and Fournette, salary relief was inevitably necessary at other positions, and tomjk321 took heavy positions on McKenzie, Thomas, Miller and Wilson at receiver along with the Broncos and Bengals defenses. Even Ryan Tannehill (TEN) was a cheap option at his position so this user had a clear plan that he wanted to spend at RB on this slate. Despite those heavy positions on chalky backs only three players from his 16th place lineup proved to be higher than 3.3-percent owned (Henry, Kamara and Ertz)! Nice work, tomjk321.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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