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NFL DFS Week 13 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 13 GPP Recaps
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The coverboy of this week’s DailyRoto content paid off huge as Carson Wentz (PHI) proved to be the quarterback (QB) in most winning lineups this week. While Jared Goff (LAR) came close in terms of raw points, Wentz stacks naturally built lineups into Alshon Jeffery (PHI) who caught nine passes for 137 yards and a score in a game that proved to be competitive (and one that the Eagles ultimately lost). Furthermore, Wentz builds were naturally run-back with DeVante Parker (MIA), who has proven to be the most productive member of the Dolphins offense in recent weeks. On Sunday, Parker was borderline unstoppable as he caught 7-10 targets for 159 yards and two scores to propel the Dolphins to a shocking victory. Heading into the week, the Eagles ranked as a top 10 DVOA defense against both the pass and the rush, but the Dolphins passing game sliced them up in their own right. When the smoke cleared, this game produced 68 total points and two 30-plus fantasy point receivers on DK. That made this game stack mostly unbeatable.

Speaking of DK, user “mtw13002” and “fjbourne” rolled out the same Wentz-Jeffery-Parker game stack to split $1 Million and their game stack also included Miles Sanders (PHI). Yes, this was the first time the $1 Million first prize was split but these two rolled out the exact same lineup. This was a perfect example of when to add a running back (RB) to a stack as Sanders has been extremely active in the passing game (especially as of late). With Jordan Howard (PHI) out, Sunday marked the third consecutive game in which Sanders had been targeted at least four times and he has now caught 75-percent of his targets this year. The Dolphins had already allowed RBs to catch four receiving TDs prior to Sunday and Sanders found pay dirt on a 15-yard pass early in the first quarter. Despite the fact Sanders was stone chalk and both Jeffery/Parker came in at double-digit ownership, Wentz only came it at 7.9-percent ownership. In fact, Wentz and the Chiefs defense were the only single-digit owned players in the lineup, so it is no wonder why this lineup was duped:

In the $1M Wildcat, user “Ashton012345” barely edged out DailyRoto user “TeeJayorTj” for first place. Like the winners of the Millionaire, nearly all players in the winning lineup were chalky, but this user chose to roll out a double tight end (TE) set. Most weeks, this strategy does not prove to be optimal, as there have been multiple weeks where 17 fantasy points led the position on a main slate. This week, that did not prove to be the case, and two cheap, chalky TEs were the ones who ended up going off. With Gerald Everett (LAR) out, Tyler Higbee (LAR) found himself in a fantastic spot against a defense that has allowed by far the most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. Once again, a TE found the end zone against the Cardinals (13th TE score of the year against them) and Higbee even eclipsed the 100-yard plateau. Doyle did not quite make it to 100-yards, but at $3,300 on DK, he did not have to (especially with how much salary that duo in tune opened up elsewhere). Here was the winning lineup:

On FD, the Sunday Million was shipped by a Goff-Cooper Kupp (LAR)-Higbee double-stack that also included the Jeffery/Parker correlation stack. Kupp was not even the most productive receiver on the Rams but the secret sauce in this lineup was the 1.1-percent owned Derrius Guice (WAS). In hindsight, Guice was such a sharp play as the Panthers ranked 32nd in DVOA versus the run and he was coming off a week where he led the backfield in snaps. It only took Guice 10 carries to accrue 129 rushing yards and two TDs and he was one of two Redskins backs that rushed for at least 99-yards. Unlike DK, this FD user used the two RB spots to save salary, as they combined to cost just $10,200, which was $800 less than FLEX Christian McCaffery (CAR):

In the $400K Monster, a Wentz stack once again took the cake, as it only took a score of 168.2 to win the $100,000 first prize. By comparison, the Sunday Million winner’s lineup produced 188 fantasy points, so there was a difference of over 20 fantasy points between the winners of the two contests. Both McCaffery and Leonard Fournette (JAX) essentially busted as chalk but user “peted23” rolled out a receiving core that went crazy. Additionally, his TE gained 100 yards via the air and Sanders held his own as a cheap FLEX. There was no beating the Jeffery/Parker duo in tournaments this week and peted23 rounded out his lineup well enough to assure that no one beat him in a contest with only 800 entries.

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “fjbourne” was selected due to his success (as his top lineup finished tied for first in the Millionaire). When all said and done, fjbourne most heavily exposed himself to Tyler Higbee (LAR) and Christian McCaffery (CAR). Amongst those who have been analyzed in this article this year, this is the tightest pool that has been run by far. A few users have taken tight approaches to their top handful of players and then differentiated themselves overall but fjbourne was only exposed to just 59 total players in this build. This week’s user took a bold stance on Carson Wentz (PHI) and Jared Goff (LAR), who were found in a majority of tournament-winning lineups, so the leap of faith clearly paid off. Here were the players he was most heavily exposed to (in order):

  1. Tyler Higbee (63.3-percent)
  2. Christian McCaffery (58.7-percent)
  3. Miles Sanders (57.3-percent)
  4. Dede Westbrook (41.3-percent)
  5. Cooper Kupp (40.7-percent)
  6. Alshon Jeffery (37.3-percent)
  7. Le’Veon Bell (36.0-percent)
  8. Christian Kirk (31.3-percent)
  9. Saquon Barkley (31.3-percent)
  10. Jared Goff (30.0-percent)
  11. Carson Wentz (30.0-percent)
  12. Auden Tate (26.0-percent)
  13. Mike Evans (25.3-percent)
  14. Davante Adams (23.3-percent)
  15. Cleveland Defense (22.7-percent)

The obvious noteworthy aspect to his build wasthe condensed nature. In total, fjbourne had 20-plus percent exposure to a total of 19 players, which means almost one-third of the players in his pool were present in about one-fifth of his total lineups. Running a tight core gave him an opportunity to have a huge advantage on the field if his core hit and most of the players from his core hit in a big way. It was a huge week for chalk and 13 of his top 15 exposure players were at least double-digit owned (and many of them were the stone chalk at their position). That panned out nicely this week which led to fjbourne’s tight core propelling him to a $500,000 top lineup. Nice work, fjbourne.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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