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NFL DFS Week 14 GPP Recaps

NFL DFS Week 14 GPP Recaps
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Fading Derrick Henry in a world class matchup versus the Jaguars was a popular talking point going into Sunday and his ownership was lower than expected in just the mid 20s in many large field contests. He more than returned value on his way to 39.2 DraftKings points on 222 yards and two touchdowns. As has been the case every week this season though, low priced replacement RBs failed miserably as value plays as DeAndre Washington and JD McKissic were disasters at relatively high ownership rates. High priced chalk at RB, WR, TE, and DST all came through with flying colours though as Henry, Adams, Kelce, and Cowboys DST all had big performances. The difference between the big winners this week though were sub 1% owned QBs that stole the show.


NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]

The million-dollar winner on DraftKings for Week 14 was “Fortyfortner” with a score of 222.74 points. Their “single stack and bring no one back” of David Carr and Nelson Agholor had only 3 players with double digit ownership and three players at 1.4% or lower. Carr was only 0.8% owned and his stack mate Agholor was only 1.4% while combining for 52.84 points on only $10K in salary. Having 5x scoring days goes a long way towards building a million-dollar winning lineup. The seemingly difficult matchup with the Colts defence yielded extremely low ownership for both players in a game with 71 total points scored.

The winning lineup also included two players from one of the league’s worst offences in the Bears’ Montgomery and Robinson, as well as two players from the Titans’ offence in a great matchup with the Jaguars – Henry and Brown. Many players build with a rule of “max one player from a non-QB offence” but this week the big winner brought in two players from two non-stacked offences and won a million dollars. The other bright spot in the lineup was the Cowboys DST that was one of the highest owned units this week at 15.6% on account of their punt level salary $2400 and matchup with the hapless Bengals offence. Their early TD was a great start that just got better as the game went on. For a second week in a row, a double TE lineup won a million dollars.

Player Exposure Ownership
Derek Carr 25.0% 0.8%
Derrick Henry 75.0% 26.4%
David Montgomery 75.0% 22.9%
Nelson Agholor 25.0% 24.0%
AJ Brown 75.0% 5.8%
Allen Robinson 50.0% 6.1%
Mike Gesicki 100.0% 9.2%
Tyler Eifert 25.0% 1.0%
Cowboys DST 25.0% 15.6%

Playing Henry, Montgomery, Brown, Robinson, and Gesicki was a solid core to build around for the four lineups “Fortyfortner” had in the contest and then managing to get the Cowboys, Carr, and Agholor together was where the stars aligned as they were each one offs for the lineup set. The rest of the lineup set reveals some interesting strategy as there were two Bears in three of four lineups, while the fourth lineup had a naked Mitch Trubisky. The mystery only deepens as AJ Brown was in three of four lineups, while the fourth lineup contained Tannehill paired with Derrick Henry. Needless to say, this flies in the face of just about every correlation and build strategy one could sensibly write about, but “Fortyfortner” has a million dollars this morning while I just have game theory, righteous indignation, and a hole in my pocket.

NFL $200K Game Changer [$50K to 1st, Single Entry]

In the world of high stakes single entry contests on DraftKings, “crashlanding” was the big winner with a score of 198.34 points. As was the case in MME, the winning formula was a 0.7% owned David Carr and his partner in crime Nelson Agholor at 2.8% ownership. In this single-entry contest though, the lineup was slightly more correlated as it was a “single stack and bring two back” including the recently unretired TY Hilton and Jonathan Taylor. It was the unexpected high scoring game of the week and having four players from that game won the day. Going with these cheap pieces also allowed them to jam in Henry and Adams in the same lineup who were two of the most expensive players on the slate.

Underwhelming performances from McKissic and the Giants DST were pretty easily overcome by the explosions from the game stack the lineup was built around. Cole Kmet was a common punt TE in MME that drew less interest in single entry, but at only $2900 not much was needed. He salvaged enough value with his 4-40 performance, but it was a little tilting watching Jimmy Graham catch a TD on his way to a 12.3 point performance on only half the target share of Kmet.


$2M NFL Sunday Million ($500K to 1st)

On Fanduel, the big MME winner was “jcle07” with a score of 206.84 points. Only a week after Tua laid an egg versus the Bengals while the world pined for Fitzmagic, he was responsible for “jcle07” winning $500K in a matchup versus the Chiefs. At just 0.9% ownership, his 28.04 point performance as part of a “double stack and bring one back” with Gesicki and Grant along with Tyreek Hill. As was the case with the big winner on DraftKings, Henry, Montgomery, Robinson, Taylor, and the Cowboys DST were a part of the winning equation.

This week, even in MME, the winning lineup wasn’t perfect, as 0.4% owned Grant returned only 4.8 points while on DraftKings the winning lineup included two TEs with Eifert’s 4.1 point performance included.

Pro Spotlight

The pro spotlight this week is on “crashlanding”. On top of their win in the $1500 single entry NFL $200K Game Changer on DraftKings, they had 3 entries in both the $20 entry NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire and the $500 entry NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire contests that netted a total of $88,940 on $3060 of entries. A look at their player pool for their three lineups yields some interesting results:

Player Exposure Ownership
Derrick Henry 100% 26.4%
Davante Adams 100% 25.4%
Giants DST 100% 4.7%
Collin Johnson 66.6% 4.5%
DeAndre Washington 66.7% 13.0%
Derek Carr 33.3% 0.8%
Nelson Agholor 33.3% 1.4%
Amari Cooper 33.3% 2.7%
Taysom Hill 33.3% 2.8%
Irv Smith 33.3% 2.0%
Michael Thomas 33.3% 2.8%
TY Hilton 33.3% 7.7%
Cole Kmet 33.3% 4.7%
Tyler Boyd 33.3% 8.2%
Jonathan Taylor 33.3% 13.0%
Keke Coutee 33.3% 10.2%
Jordan Akins 33.3% 9.1%
Aaron Rodgers 33.3% 16.0%
JD McKissic 33.3% 20.5%

Many players build around the game stacks they want to target and start with the QB and WR/TE pairing they want to use. It appears that “crashlanding” instead started with a core of players they felt strongly about – Henry, Adams, and Giants DST, and then built stacks around them that fit within the remaining salary. All lineups were at least single stacked while the Rodgers and Rodgers lineups didn’t contain any bring backs. Also, interestingly, given the high ownership of Henry and Adams, it seems there were clear intentions to differentiate with very low owned stacks and one offs to build around them with as eleven players in the lineup set were in single digit ownership with nine of those below 5% ownership. Once again it goes to show players don’t have to avoid chalky good plays, they believe in but must find some way to differentiate with lower owned plays somewhere.

Congratulations to all the big winners in Week 14 of the NFL DFS season!

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